Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale

Questions and postings about buying and selling Thoroughbreds.

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Camish
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Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale

Postby Camish » Fri Oct 08, 2004 6:39 pm

Hi! I am planning on attending the Keeneland Breeding Stock Sale and was just wanting some input on a few mares I was considering as a 'foundation mare' for my farm (I am just starting up). How much do you think each one would bring and would they be worth my time and money? Also, what do you think about the covering sires? Thank you so very much for all the help and input! It is all GREATLY appreciated! :D

Hip No. 4248: A Number One, b, m, 87, by Star Choice-El Hamo by Search for Gold. IF to Indian Charlie (June 24, 04)
http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Nov04/pdfs/4248.pdf

Hip No. 4283: Checking It Twice (Ire), dkb/br, m, 89, by Reference Point-Christmas Bonus by Key To The Mint. IF to King Cugat (March 01, 04)
http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Nov04/pdfs/4283.pdf

Hip No. 4325: Ethandune, b, m, 89, by Topsider-Surf by *Hawaii. IF to Silic (Fr) (July 02, 04)
http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Nov04/pdfs/4325.pdf

Hip No. 4356: Gmaasha (Ire), ch, m, 89, by Kris-Al Bahathri by Blushing Groom (Fr). IF to Silic (Fr) (April 18, 04)
http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Nov04/pdfs/4356.pdf

Hip No. 4434: Modern Maid (Uru), ch, m, 88, by Link (Fr)-Northern Maid by Northfields. IF to Flatter (April 07, 04)
http://www.keeneland.com/sales/Nov04/pdfs/4434.pdf

LSB
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Postby LSB » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:20 pm

All of the mares you've selected are quite old. The youngest will shortly turn sixteen, the oldest will soon be eighteen. #4248 and #4345 have very late due dates, which pretty much insures that you will need to give them a year off right away to get back on track--something you really don't want to have to do with mares their age. #4434 has only produced one live foal since 1998.

Due to their advanced ages, all of these mares have produced a number of foals. Very few of their progeny have raced with any success. If you're looking for a foundation mare, you'd probably be better off saving your time and your money and looking for something a little better than can be found in this group.

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Postby KAL » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:33 pm

Camish,

I'll try to be brief. There are some positives to the mares you have listed... however, rather than re-hash what you probably already know, please allow me to play devil's advocate...

Hip 4248 has an very late breeding date. This will probably mean she will need next year off, unless everything goes perfectly. And, at her age, a missed year means quite a bit. Additionally, even if she doesn't miss a year, her foals will be up against it in the sales ring because they will be giving away so much time, and this will limit you, pretty much, to the fall yearling sales. Limitations are not good... options (selling as weanling, July sales, etc. ) are. She probably won't be expensive though, and may not even reach Indian Charlie's fee.

Hip 4283 has quite a pedigree and, thusly, will attract a little more attention, however, she has had quite a few chances and not met with much success. Before considering her, you probably should ask yourself what you can do to move her foals forward. She wouldn't be a bad choice, but I would rather go with one who hasn't proven unsuccessful yet.

Hip 4325 has a little of both the above. Late, late breeding date is a huge negative. Also, she hasn't produced much from the chances she has had.

HIp 4356 is a mare I actually looked at within the past couple years. I think she was a Darley mare. The thing which pushed me against her, and which I would advise you to consider, is her produce record. She has been bred to the best... and produced virtually nothing. How on earth will you improve her?

Hip 4434 would scare me a little because of the produce record... or lack thereof for the past couple years. I would wish to make absolutely certain she was in foal. I think you could move her forward with different stallion selection. Her age is a factor, however it should make her more affordable also. Ron Blake is a good friend of mine. If you wish to know more about her, closer to the sales, I would be happy to introduce you or ask him what you wish to know for you. He is an extremely honest, straight-shooter.

On another note, you may wish to think about the F-T sales and the Kee January sale. Or, with all the horses I have been seeing for sale privately, you may wish to pursue that option. They are definitely out there. For example, we have one we will probably try to sell privately, and if no takers, sell her in F-T February. She is open, because we chose not to bred her late in the year, she vets completely clean, and will be sold with a guarantee of breeding soundness. She is younger, and has her family fills a page very well. I know I see others similar listed every day.

Good luck! I'd look for thoughts from others on these mares. I am sure more positives will be presented.

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Pete
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Postby Pete » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:27 pm

Hi Camish,

LSB and KAL are giving you some excellent advice. KAL’s comments are like a primer in evaluating broodmares. I’d read his advice again.

I'll ask a few hypothetical questions that should make it easier to give you advice.

1 - Do you have a business plan? Have you made projections (you have to be realistic) about where the income from your equine business will come from? Have you set timelines to reach your goals? Do you have enough knowledge or do you need to find an advisor (and there are pitfalls in that).

2 – What are your intentions with the foals – race or sell? At what age will you sell and at which sale (auctions have their own characteristics). In general (but not as a rule) you want to be a bigger fish in the pond that you’re selling in.

3 - Do you understand all of the expenses you'll face? Will you keep the foals on your own farm? If so I trust that you have the background and expertise to raise thoroughbreds because they’re very different from raising other breeds of horses.

4 – Have you set budgets for stallions? Purchasing five (5) mares implies 5 stud fees that you’ll need to pay in 2005 (or early 2006). Potentially a large investments before you begin a cash flow.

I haven't looked at a single mare you listed (yet) but as LSB points out, they are old. That's NOT how you build a broodmare band. At their ages you're generally buying someone else's headache, failure or breeding problem.. The sellers of these mares have seen many of their foals and in effect are giving up.

Buying broodmares requires a lot of research. It seems the harder I work the luckier I am. One of my clients just purchased a 4yo Forest Wildcat mare for $2,500 who lacks black-type in the first generation and has a seemingly modest race record of 3-1-0-0 and $28,390 in earnings. He had researched her race record: Her first race was a win in MdnSpWt (Belmont) in 1:04.4 (5-1/2 furlongs), second race a 4th place finish in the Colleen Stakes and she was injured in her third start. The top two finishers in the Colleen went on to take graded brackets. This was a nice quality filly by a commercial sire and has some deeper pedigree. This may well be a good purchase IF he’s willing to put in the time to develop this broodmare.

Broodmares are a source of income and they have intrinsic value that is always declining unless there are events that push that value higher. If a member of your broodmare’s family wins or places in stakes races the value of your mare increases. Today NOISETTE won the Gaviola Stakes at Belmont Park. She is the ‘aunt’ of one of my mares (she is a ½ sister to the dam of my mare). My mare gained value by this win (her first stakes win). Henthorn (a forum member) got a first stakes-placing from her mare’s ½ brother, thus improving her mare’s value. As the intrinsic value of the mare rises, so does the value of her foals.

The most ‘direct’ impact on your mare is based on the racing success of her foals. If she has no foals of racing age then it’s the family members (as above). Then again, I like maiden mares because no one has seen a foal from her and I believe I have assembled a team that can get that mare in foal and raise a quality animal for me. I don’t have a farm.

Selecting commercial stallions (and projecting their value when you intend to sell the foals) is highly subjective, sometimes volatile and an art form. If you race the foals it’s much easier but if you are breeding to sell you will be forced to meet the market to make a profit.

I’m always learning how to better select breeding stock. I’ve been profitable but without keeping an open mind and refining my analysis and outworking my competition I’ll be in a position to fail.

Please feel free to ask any questions that you have. There’s more than enough room for us all to succeed and I hope that you will.

Regards,

Pete

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Camish
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Postby Camish » Sat Oct 09, 2004 5:34 am

Thank you all for your help! I greatly appreciate it all! :D

And Pete, thank you for the 'check list', and also for the kind words. Thanks once again.

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Pete
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Postby Pete » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:49 pm

Hi Camish,

I spoke with a woman who may be the the best caretaker in NY state a little earlier this evening.

She's had success in purchasing older mares, getting foals and getting them back in foal. Her live foal to mares bred is historically over 80%. She'll keep older mares and let them live out their lives.

Of the four older mares she purchased in the last year, only one is in foal. One was sold and didn't catch for her new owners. Another has laminitis and will need to be put down soon (she's 20yo). This woman lamented that it's hard with the old girls. If you're as good as she is you'll have problems.

Good luck,

Pete