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 Post subject: Professional gambling
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:03 pm 
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I like this topic. Is anyone on this board a professional gambler? I would love to speak with someone who makes a living at it. I consider myself a very competent handicapper but I need to speak with someone about the gambling side of the handicapping. I don't know anyone who can give me the advice I need. The many books I have read are very basic and not that good. I could write a book much better than any I have read, although I often wonder why someone who is that good at gambling would give away their hard earned wisdom. I am close, so very close but I would sure love to speak with someone who knows how to do it.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:21 pm 
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bcassidy wrote:
I like this topic. Is anyone on this board a professional gambler? I would love to speak with someone who makes a living at it. I consider myself a very competent handicapper but I need to speak with someone about the gambling side of the handicapping. I don't know anyone who can give me the advice I need. The many books I have read are very basic and not that good. I could write a book much better than any I have read, although I often wonder why someone who is that good at gambling would give away their hard earned wisdom. I am close, so very close but I would sure love to speak with someone who knows how to do it.


Hi Brendan,
The truth is most good handicappers aren't that good at making money gambling. There is a distinct difference between being an excellent handicapper and being a professional gambler. In my lifetime around racing I have seen many professional handicappers, that thought they were professional gamblers, but they weren't. Most fall sooner or later, those that I know, that have stood the test of time, aren't handicappers they are charters--they are amazing. There isn't a drop of live action money that they don't see--well their computer helps:>).
Many good handicappers can beat the heck out of a race, but can't beat the game. The handful of good handicappers that I know who are able to earn a living at the track do it with an uncommon amount of will power and money management. It takes all their time, 24-7. They will sometimes sit for days without making a wager. One of the golden rules is never bet a lot to win a little. Don't spread and never chase a losing bet. Sounds simple, but it isn't:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 6:57 pm 
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bcassidy,

for about the last year and a half I have made a living "playing the races".. if you can't tell by my post count, I pretty much sit in front of my TV and watch HRTV and TVG all day long. I have a business background even at my young age this isn't the first time I've worked for myself or had a business.


First of all, I don't view what I do as gambling.. I view it as a business. and as much time as I spend doing it, it damn well is. It's not that it can't be done... there are too many people out there doing it and people who have done it, indlugind msyelf to prove otherwise.. Mr. rooney of pittsburg steelers fame built that team on the back of belmont park. he was one of the best handicappers of the 20th century. You have to LOVE horse racing to do this for a living. everyone wants to know what my "secret" is or what forumla o what method I use to pick winners.

a normal day consists of me getting up about 7ish, working out, cutting on the TV and getting in some good UK racing before the american racing comes on... watching HRTV and TVG until about 7pm, then going back and watcing race replays of ALL the races I didn't see on TV and someo f the ones I did, makign notes of who I liked and why, then after that, handicapping the races that have horses in them that Ilike for the next day. when I post on here, it's usually in between race loads on racereplays. it's how I kill time.

anyway... it's a 16-18 hour day. and I love it. not everyone does. but that is very much what you are in for. information is key, and who has the BEST, not hte most information is ahead in the game. I honestly believe this is why most people don't try to play the races and why they resolt to the fact that youc an't beat the game.. which is the most overused and illigically corect statement I have eve heard.. I don't have to beat the game, this isnt' a casino.. i have ot beat you, the bettor.. it's para mutal wagering.. and as long as I consider myself to be ahead of most betters at hte track I'm in great shape.


Quote:
I consider myself a very competent handicapper but I need to speak with someone about the gambling side of the handicapping.


I am not a millionare (yet ;) but I live very, very comfortably, and I will tell you, I am not the best handicapper on earth. its' my realzing that that ha sallowed me to make a profit at this game.

I have accecpted the fact that I am never going to win more than 35% of the races I handicap. so the trick is, how to profit from that 35% asm uch as possible. that's where 90% of all handicappers get it wrong. I am able to accecpt that I (gasp) might be wrong and take it into account.

there is a difference betweeen picking a winner and making a BET on a winner. every wger I make is wit the mindset if I make this wager 100 times, how much ahead am I goign to come out if at all? If i love a horse, but i know I only win 35% of the time, I know that at 3/5 if I LOVE a horse it's nto a very wise bet to bet long term at 35% and expect a long term profit if that makes sense. money management in other words.


every book out there sucks bigtime on how to do it for a living. you have to remember,t his isn't poker... you aren't playing against the house, you are playing against other people. and the successful, the really successful ones, aren't oging to tell you how to beat them. people who have to write books on how to play the horses for a living, i promise you, are not playing the horses for a living and doing it well.


also, this is something that took me 8 years to hone. it didn't come overnight. I knew when I was in high school I wanted to play horses and it took 8 years of trails and errors to get it "right". it's not a get by night scheme, and that's where so many people fall off the wagon. you are going to take lumps, take loosing streaks, big ones. when your money is on the line you start to notice things that as a "fan" you didn't notice... and develop strong opinions about them..

my peronall turning point was the 2005 kentucky derby, it was after that race that I just stopped making bets and stopped thinking in short terms, and told myself I wasn't placing another bet until august, i was just going to sit and watch races for 4 months.. becuase I was ovbiously missing "something" and I was.


handicapping is picking who is going to win a race.. you don't want to handicap, you want to make a living. remember that


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The truth is most good handicappers aren't that good at making money gambling. T



PREACH IT!!

I went to monmouth park for breeders cup week. there was a guy who I know from antoher forum who had been begging me to meet him, so I met him there. I am always very, very reluctant to give out my picks, I do some fo fun buf90% of them I won't do not beause I'm afraid of loosing, but I don't wnat to ruin a friendship if I give a wrong pick.

Here was what I picked forthe BC meet:

F&M Sprint: Dream Rush/ La T. I wasn't going to bet that race because neither of them offered any value

Juve Turf: I had no idea whatsoever

dirt mile: corinthian

Filly Juve: Smarty Deb

Juve: Wicked Style

Sprint: Lute, didn't bet, no value

Fily and mare turf: lauhoudood (whatever)

mile: Excellent Art


Distaff: hystericalady

Turf: Shemidian


Classic: curlin, didn't bet, no value



Now... if you played these tickets straight up, without taking any other advice, you would have walked away with a profit. not a bad one.

I told the guy.. look.. don't bet the F and mare sprint, the TVG sprint or the classic. they don't offer value. and IMHO they dont'. yes, Lute and curlin won, but what if either didnt' like slop? the classic could hve went to 6 different horses, I like curlin but not at under 5 to 1.


so he doesn't bet thoose and they win. I can tell he's aggiated.

even worse, he didn't have the "guts" to bet a 12 to 1` shot in the FandM tuf. i'm sorry, but if you dont' have the "guts"t bet a horse because of his odds are long you will never ever make a profit at the track. ever. because odds are based on public opinion not actual value. that is a filly who won the toughtest prep going into that race and she's going off at double digit odds.. I cashed in on that one.


so at the end of the day, he is blaming me for not only not betting the races that won, but for NOT BETTING THE RRACES THAT I WON and somehow I hid some inside information from him.

I tried to explain to him... if you goal was to come here and play the horses and have a little fun, take 50 bucks and tryt to pick a winner here and there, then yes.. thoose aren't bad picks. but at the end of the day, my goal is nto that. my goal is to TURN A PROFIT at the end of the year. I can't do that by taking midnight lute on the slop, coming off a beyer that could have been fool's gold at 2 to 1. I like the horse, but not at 2 to 1. if you can't get that, you have issues.


I also would not be able tog do what i do without computers. I don't bet one track, I bet all of them. i cherry pick races I like from each track. I am ableo tsee the toteboard on each track in real time from my laptop. I can see value in show pools if I wanted to play a show bet. I can watch replays online fom across the county. nope.. could not have done it 10 years ago.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:35 am 
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Weanling

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BCassidy,

Go to the site called Chicago Barn to Wire. Go to the standardbred forum. A guy named Race Track Phil has made his living ALL his life just betting horses (over 40 years). He is one sharp cookie. He is very amicable and once he gets to know you he may answer a few questions for you. Do not ask him anything for a few weeks until you have posted a while. He is famous in Chicago and he is no bullslinger. In short, if he didn't make money every year he and his family did not eat. Plenty of motivation there.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:23 am 
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BDW do you ever go outside anymore ??? lol :wink: the only thing in 16-18 hour increments I'd do is sleep!! :twisted:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 11:41 am 
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The best gamblers I ever knew would wait for a certain type of race. They would handicap every day, but they could go 3 or 4 days without finding a bet to make. TJ is right - you can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:24 pm 
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Rokeby is 100% correct. The only way to get ahead in this game (as a bettor) is to be very selective in your wagering. The advent of television broadcasting and wagering (TVG etc) offer a lot more opportunities to apply your theories. Use whatever method of handicapping that works best for you, and only choose races that offer value. I rely a great deal on pedigree handicapping (which may also suggest pace factors) as opposed to trip handicapping etc. I try to find spots where an individual is trying something for the first time (stretching out, grass, or first time starters, etc), and base my wager on potential. I may make as many as 4 bets a day (at various tracks) or I might go a couple of days without a wager. I do like trifectas and supefectas. I will also play pick 3's pick 4's, and pick 6's if I find good key plays within the sequence.
I have been playing the ponies since the late 1940's (some winning years, and many non winning years), and bought my first racehorse in 1967, so I have been around the game for quite awhile. I too have TVG on all day in my office. Never wager any more than you can afford to lose.

Bill

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:34 pm 
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I was a serious horseplayer in the 70's. I consider myself an excellent handicapper and a good money manager but I never made any money. I never met anyone who did. I thinks it's probably tougher today than it was 30 years ago with shorter fields and more tools available to make better selections.

Today for amusement, I bet a few dollars on horses I pick out of post parade or pedigree. I don't even use the form any longer.

Below is my TVG wager history for the last few years. More power to those who claim they can make a living..

Year/Wagered/ Won
2006 $1,713.00/ $1,537.65
2005 $1,590.00/ $1,035.15
2004 $2,096.00/ $2,030.95
2003 $607.00/ $312.50
2002 $4,379.00/ $4,311.20


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:37 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
The best gamblers I ever knew would wait for a certain type of race. They would handicap every day, but they could go 3 or 4 days without finding a bet to make. TJ is right - you can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.


Hi Roke,
Geez, ya made be blush--right before I fainted:>) Professional gamblers come so few and far between, especially these days with so many types of bets and so many tracks offered--it makes it so much harder to focus and use restraint. I've seen entire familys, businesses, marriages, houses, horses and everything else of value fit between that six inch space where you would push the money under the bars to the teller:>) TJ


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:06 pm 
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spex4me wrote:
BDW do you ever go outside anymore ??? lol :wink: the only thing in 16-18 hour increments I'd do is sleep!! :twisted:



No. I live in a townhouse that has a heated pool, that's about the extent of my going outside as I love to swim. also to the store to get food and stuff.


with that said, it's a 16-18 a day job but I only handicap for wednesday though sudnay and I take big chunks of time off. Like a month here, 2-3 weeks there. you have to.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:11 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
The best gamblers I ever knew would wait for a certain type of race. They would handicap every day, but they could go 3 or 4 days without finding a bet to make. TJ is right - you can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.


Hi Roke,
Geez, ya made be blush--right before I fainted:>) Professional gamblers come so few and far between, especially these days with so many types of bets and so many tracks offered--it makes it so much harder to focus and use restraint. I've seen entire familys, businesses, marriages, houses, horses and everything else of value fit between that six inch space where you would push the money under the bars to the teller:>) TJ


part of the rerason I am successful or sat least some of it, ist he amount of races I have abailable to me these days. I dont' have to make bets at 1 track. On a given friday I have about 120-130 races to choose from. When I first started out I would literalry make 30 bets a day, I had to just get in on the action. the more I wagered the more I learned that another race would start pretty damn soon. Tehre are days I go without making a bet. days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

On the avg day I might make 2 bets.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:15 pm 
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Another part of the discipline is sticking to wager types you are good at.

There are so many different types of wagers now. I don't think you can play them all.

The best Pick 4 bettor I know ONLY win bets and plays Pick 4s. It seems to give him the right mindframe to focus on the sequences that provide the most potential for winnings, and to handle the psychology of losing, which is particularly tough with multi-race wagers. (miss a major score in the pick4 due to a nose photo, etc...)


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:20 pm 
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bdw0617 wrote:
days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:24 pm 
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Ill-bred wrote:
Another part of the discipline is sticking to wager types you are good at.

There are so many different types of wagers now. I don't think you can play them all.

The best Pick 4 bettor I know ONLY win bets and plays Pick 4s. It seems to give him the right mindframe to focus on the sequences that provide the most potential for winnings, and to handle the psychology of losing, which is particularly tough with multi-race wagers. (miss a major score in the pick4 due to a nose photo, etc...)


yteahs some people treat wagers like buffetts... "yea I want some pick 3, with a side of trifecta, and throw in an extra serving of daily double"


Here is the way I setup my bets. I try to maximize each bet to the possible extent without what I consider wasting money.

Let me use an example. I will go to the Breederrs Cup because that is a race everyone is familar with. note, this is not a winning wager but it will give you an idea of my mind set.

After my handicapping that day, I really liked Hystericalady in the distaff. REALLY liked her.

S;o I singled her.

However to maximze the wager, I put a 4 dollar rolling pick 3 together to try to milk that pick as much as I possibly could. With Midnight Lute in the sprint and Excellent Art/Kip Deville in the mile.

I spent 4 bucks,and by that I took a horse who by himself I didn't like (midngiht lute) and put him in a wager where he served a legit purpose and offered some value. without going too deep on all horses I really liked. A head bob away. it would have paid about 250ish I would think, a pretty good investment on 4 bucks. In a pick 3 if I can't honestly single 2 of the 3 horses I won't bet. It's not worth the money and you are basically guessing at that point.

the only time I play exactas is when the payoffs are out of wack.

If I like a 12 to 1 shot and the 12 to 1 shot wit the fav on bottom is going to pay like 150 for a 2 dollar wager, I'll throw 5-6 bucks down. that's a smart wager. if it's going to pay 70 bucks I"m not going to waste my money. it pays to watch the tote board.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:32 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?


it has nothing to do with action, it has to do with not being value at 3 to 1 when it was value at 8 to 1.

remember I went about 33-35 percent of my races, there is more value at 8 to 1 than at 3 to 1. again... I'm very picky on races I actually bet on. if you wait long enough your race will come.


you watch enough racing, you would be suprised at some of the odds you can get on some horses if you just be patient. there was a horse at parairie meadows, who had Thompson up, coming off a 3rd palce finish, by a bout a half length in the exact same condition, going off at 13 to 1 because a horse from new york was shipping in.. the NY horse came in dead last... 28 bucks for 2 dollar son a horse that lost by a half length.

I rarely dip below 5 to 1. that is kinda my self imposed cut off line. ther eis no point. there are too many races otu there with too high odds that are too juicy to take anything less.. but the rebel stakes was one of them. I could not believe i was getting 3 to 1 on curlin, coming off that draw dropping maiden performance.

At hollywood park, a filly named ingrid the gambler by Joannesburg, trying turf for the first time and never finished off the board or worse than 2 lenghts back on dirt, in a MSW, was going off at about 8 to 1, against fillies who had for the most part proven they couldn't win. won for fun. 18 bucks.

you jus thave to be patient and not bet every race just beasuse there is a ace there.

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