Professional gambling

[Foggytrip]

I just think logically and understand the game BDW. Its foolish to think anything other than what I just said.

[Tucumcari]

I bet. But I bet what I know is good. I have a clocker and a husband who is a jocks agent, so we do ok. We loose, but generally we do well. Sometime I think too much knowledge is a dangerous thing in the gambling thing.
I like horses at a price that I Know are good. I will single them in a sequence and go deep in messy races.... it's served me well. That's not however how I make a living. BUT it is a nice bonus.

[bdw0617]

I like horses at a price that I Know are good.

you have managed to sum up thousands of handicapping books to 1 sentence, and quite effectivly I might add[/quote]

[Tucumcari]

there are books beyond the form??!!!?

[hpkingjr]

Enjoyed this topic and insights. Very interesting.

Question for BDW?

You stated "I don't have to beat the game, this isnt' a casino.. i have ot beat you, the bettor.. it's para mutal wagering.. and as long as I consider myself to be ahead of most betters at hte track I'm in great shape. "

I would question that logic. At the casino you are in essense betting against the public as well and most often the house edge is much less, 2% to 4% at the craps tables unless you start betting the hard ways etc.

At the track the "house" cuts the pot 18% to 20% each race. So in theory if we collectively bet a dollar each race, after 5 races the "house" (track) has 90 cents to all of our first collective dollar. After 10 races, the "house" (track) has our collective dollar plus 80 cents to all of our next collective dollar. It would seem that no matter how many or how few races you bet, the pot is cut 20% each race. I read somewhere that 91% of the people who go to the track lose money. It is a direct function of cutting the pot by 20%, 10 times in a row.

I believe without any direct knowledge that the secret to your success is the discipline to wager 1 or 2 races a day from all you preview or to pass entirely. I believe the value of your system is that you will go broke but much, much slower. Now does that keep me from betting? Absolutely not.

Logic and the desire to gamble are often mutually exculsive.

Respectfully

[Tucumcari]

Enjoyed this topic and insights. Very interesting.

Question for BDW?

You stated "I don't have to beat the game, this isnt' a casino.. i have ot beat you, the bettor.. it's para mutal wagering.. and as long as I consider myself to be ahead of most betters at hte track I'm in great shape. "


I believe without any direct knowledge that the secret to your success is the discipline to wager 1 or 2 races a day from all you preview or to pass entirely. I believe the value of your system is that you will go broke but much, much slower. Now does that keep me from betting? Absolutely not.

Logic and the desire to gamble are often mutually exculsive.

Respectfully

"King, I think I like you!" Smart!

[bdw0617]

Enjoyed this topic and insights. Very interesting.

Question for BDW?

You stated "I don't have to beat the game, this isnt' a casino.. i have ot beat you, the bettor.. it's para mutal wagering.. and as long as I consider myself to be ahead of most betters at hte track I'm in great shape. "

I would question that logic. At the casino you are in essense betting against the public as well and most often the house edge is much less, 2% to 4% at the craps tables unless you start betting the hard ways etc.

At the track the "house" cuts the pot 18% to 20% each race. So in theory if we collectively bet a dollar each race, after 5 races the "house" (track) has 90 cents to all of our first collective dollar. After 10 races, the "house" (track) has our collective dollar plus 80 cents to all of our next collective dollar. It would seem that no matter how many or how few races you bet, the pot is cut 20% each race. I read somewhere that 91% of the people who go to the track lose money. It is a direct function of cutting the pot by 20%, 10 times in a row.

I believe without any direct knowledge that the secret to your success is the discipline to wager 1 or 2 races a day from all you preview or to pass entirely. I believe the value of your system is that you will go broke but much, much slower. Now does that keep me from betting? Absolutely not.

Logic and the desire to gamble are often mutually exculsive.

Respectfully

hello


1. the difference between the casino and the horse track is that the horse track has no interest in who wins, as long as everyone bets. the casino on the other hand, does. with that said, there is no built in schemes, no undlying plot to the track wanting me not to be successful.

when I go to the track, when I make a wager, when I look at hte toteboard, I dont' look at just the horses.. I try to look around and get a feel for what everyone else is thinking, becuase at the end of the day, when I am successful, I am taking 95% of the people at the tracks money. so in essence, as I stated, I dont' have to beat the track, I have to remain sharper than the avg person at the track.

2. the bleeding slowly is one way to look at it, however that's not what it is. first of all I dont' bleed. I'm very much in the black for the year. secondly, i t's just understanding value and not compromising. why should i?

horse racing has changed 20x fold in the last 10 years with ADW's, simulcasting, and alot of the old guard don't seem tou nderstand what i mean by I DONT' HAVE TO PLAY EVERY RACE AT THIS TRACK.

do this... if you get time... just sit down, take a DRF for the day for all the tracks, and go back and look at the odds of some of the horses that won, and their pp's, and you will see whawt i mean. 95% of the races out there, maybe a little less are going to fall in line with what the public thinks. there are going to be races, sometimes as many as 5 a day, sometimes, a lot of times, none, where the public is just wrong.

let me show you what i mean

I dont' do this very often but I will in this case, beause it proves a point. here are some of the races I actually HIT over the last half month

December 1st, Laurel park race 5, Wye. Morning line 5 to 1. coming off a 2nd place finish in a race where I didnt' think se could beat the horse who won anyway. I was caught by the 5 to 1 morning line because well she ran her race and I didn't think there was another horse in the field who was just outright better than he was. you would expect a horse that finished a decent 2nd in the exact same conditions to be what....7/2?


try 16 to 1. same connections, same eveyrthing. h dropped from allowence class after finished horribly and showed he belong in the 20k claimer level. paid $33.40 to win for a 2 dollar ticket.

december 14th at charles town race 5 4k claimer, betty buckridge was coming off a 4k claimer win at penn national and was moving up in conditions, but she won about as impressivly as a 4k claimer can in her last race. these are the tough ones to handicap because you have to see how she is going to be when she moves up. and again you are dealing with a 4k claimer. but there wasn't another horse that just jumped out at me as a true favoriate, so I placed a wager, morning line was 10 to 1, goes off at about 8 to 1 and wins. paid $18.20


Now, every race is not like that, tyat's whY I am preaching value. 7 ish out of 10 times the public catches on and bets down. than I will pass and wait for another race. 2 out out of 3 times I will just plump loose. but when i win it makes up for it.

I'll also b the first to tell you, I pass up winners every week, if not every day. I actually DO handicap the races and regardless of the odds, if I think there is a horse that is just flat out BETTEr, I'll pass, regardless of the odds. my rationale being...why? there are 100 races a day.. just be patient until you feel right.

I have won a couple more races but you get the point. I'm not bleeding, i'm waiting for what I pertain to be as value. people seem to bet like racing is going to stop in 2 weeks and they have ot make their money now. I care about being in the balck at the end of the year. every wager I make I ask myself "will this put me in the black if I make it 100 times?" if it will I bet. if it won't i won't.

[TomFool]

There is alot of logic in how you are saying you make your plays but I may be wrong but it sounds like you are just nickle & dime playing beating every track like that. It sounds like you may make a profit but no more than an average low paying job overall. I've tried all kinds of things and all of them seemed to work for a while but didnt last over the long haul. I always just stuck with one track at a time though. Even in putting in the time you are saying I dont think you can consistantly get a real feel of how things are going if you are betting a dozen different tracks esp races like 4k claimers Charles Town. I've seen and done almost everything for 100 win bets on every horse by certain trainers in certain situations based on % to 1k show bets & all work for a while but didnt hold up over the long haul. I always have certain trainers I bet but you have to change so much makes it hard. I believe if a person is smart at managing money & will put in the time with pps, replays, sheets #s knows pedigrees etc & like you say has a love for it which you have to have to put in the time for these things to be second nature I guess it can be done if you dont set you limits too high or try to do things too fast meaning leaving the word greed out of your thoughts completely & can handle the swings. You may not think of it as gambling but it is as is breeding, pinhooking, racing etc. We all in this sport are gamblers & some albetit a small % are successful I think it proves it can be done.

[Rokeby Forever]

I don't think there's nearly the value in the win pool as there is in the exacta pool.

Let's say a "betting barn" has made a 10:1 shot 3:1 - there's no real value in that. But, that same horse might be the equivalent of 6:1 or higher in the exacta pool - there's your value.

Another favorite angle - in small fields with a heavy favorite, most handicappers would pass the race if the big favorite looks unbeatable. Why? Generally, in a 5 horse race with a 1:5 shot, the exacta with the 2nd choice will be coming back $4 or so for a $2 bet. What if the 2nd choice is beatable by the other three? You can still have the favorite win and cash a $16 or $20 exacta just by beating a horse for 2nd money that doesn't figure to win, anyway.

I love this story: In the 1973 Belmont Stakes, Secretariat was 1:9 against 4 horses...Sham and three bums. The exacta with Sham was coming back $3, but the other three exactas were coming back $19, $21, and $24. Now, if you figured that Sham was a tired horse from chasing Secretariat in his two previous efforts, you were getting at least 3:1 on some clunkup beating him (bet $2 on the other three in exactas ($6), get back a minumum of $19). The exacta with Twice A Prince came back $19. That's value!

[bdw0617]

I don't feel it's very prudent or necessary to disclose how much i bet, it's of no consequence, but I'm not betting 5 and 10 dollars that I can tell you.

terms like "nickel and dime' and "grinden out a profit" and stuff like that are overused clishqed terms that make no sense. if by nickel and dime you mean not making 500k in one bet then yes.


Actually, about 25% of my profits came from 2 bets. the pacific classic and another race at hollywood park that was an allowence race.

It sounds like you may make a profit but no more than an average low paying job overall.

you sure are assuming alot without knowing anything whatsoever about how I bet or how much my bankroll is or what I did before I got into this but that's fine

If we worked on the assumption that what is accepted as true really is true, then there would be little hope for advance


instead of actually asking questions, you are attacking my creditability and calling me poor. witout knowing anything other than the fact that ovbiously I have a passion for horse racing, which is why I come here. that in itself tells me alot. That I will not take thet ime to respond to because there is no point.

I have done nothing to anyone in this thread, yet I am getting attacked from all sides. why? honestly? I wanted to respond to the first poster who had a legit question, and the thread has become nothing more than "prove bdw wrong". I have no reason to lie to anyone here. hell look at my post count, I'm online enough. Ovboiusly I do something that lets me stay home all day long. I post picks for the hell of them. I miss some I hit some.

here I am, willing, eagerly willing at that, to answer any question anyone might have on anything I do in regards to handicapping

If you, and by you I mean anyone are trying to convicnce yourself that handicapping can't be done and made a lifing off of, by tearing me down, you are wasting your time. I don't go into what I have/don't have because it's none of anyone's business on this forum but I'm not living on the street and I'll leave it at that.

if anyone has any legit questions that don't have nasty undertones, please feel free and I will talk all day long about actual handicapping, but this defending what I do for a living, not CAN i do it for a living but w hat I actually do for a living, is getting silly.

[Rokeby Forever]

Easy, fellas....everyone has an opinion.

[hpkingjr]

BDW:

When I posted it was not a personal attack on you. Trust me, I am very capable of attacking. I actually tried to pay you a complement for having the discipline to pass on 150 races before you bet on one. I certainlly would not. I still believe that it is almost impossible to maintain that discipline and money management over the long haul. Please do not become thin-skinned and shut down on us. I truly enjoy most of your posts and thoughts.

This is an open and honest discourse on handicapping. Expect the variance. I hope you continue to have and hold the secret to much future success and enjoy the fruits of your hard work.

[Ill-bred]

I don't think there's nearly the value in the win pool as there is in the exacta pool.

Let's say a "betting barn" has made a 10:1 shot 3:1 - there's no real value in that. But, that same horse might be the equivalent of 6:1 or higher in the exacta pool - there's your value.

When I write my handicapping book, this will be a chapter.

As Roke says, inside money is almost never evenly distributed throughout the exotic pools (Ex, Tri, multi-race wagers).

[TJ]

Easy, fellas....everyone has an opinion.

Finally a sensible, non argumentative voice is heard:>) How are ya Roke...TJ

[madelyn]

One of my favorite bets in a short field with a massive favorite is Exacta wheel, all but the favorite in first, and the favorite in 2nd. That is provided there are some really good odds on the rest of the field and I believe there is a horse that can do it, given the absence of traffic.

Typically, for a five horse field, it costs $8 and returns an average of $40.