Professional gambling

[Rokeby Forever]

it has nothing to do with action, it has to do with not being value at 3 to 1 when it was value at 8 to 1.

That's where you have to watch the exacta board, BDW. A horse can be bet off the map in the win pool, but still be 10:1 or 15:1 in the exactas - that's the best value in racing, IMO.

[bdw0617]

read the rest of my post

[bdw0617]

I actually have a chart on my PC that has accectpable odds for 2 horses I like plust 15% for payouts. most of the public doesn't even know what accecptale payouts on exactas are.



I look at horse racing, and I look at poker. While I can play texas no limit with anyone, i'm not a big poker fan. hwoever alot of people are, and on ESPN, NBC and FOX I am reminded every night how one can make a living, and a very comfortable one, playing poker. there are ebooks online everywhere, video games for kids out, teaching htem how to play poker for a living.

It's one of, if not the main reason poker has thrived.


the thing that gets me about horse racing, for instance, I had about 100 different people tell me I coudln't do what I do today, not one word of encouragement whatsoever, from anyone.

"it's a tough game, you have to nickel and dime your way and be lucky to make a buck at the end of the year"

and while it is not for the faint of heart or the impatient, it isn't impossible to beat. there are so many people who get dettered becuase well... we detter them. then wonder why there are only 1k people in the stands, all old retired people where there is a poker game next door to my house every daturday night, usually with hundreds on the line.

Is poker easier to learn than horse rracing? to make a living I would say yes. but not to the extent to where horse racing handicapping for a living is downright impossible.

sometimes I really think I am crazy because I am the most stubborn person on earth. I refuse to give up on what I believe I can do, sometimes to the poitn where it makes no sense.


You know what words I have never heard uttered in the history of horse racing?

"It can be done.. I just can't do it"

or

"It probalby can be done, I just don't have the iwll to keep trying"


which 90% of the time is the god's honest case.

[TJ]

days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?

Hey Roke,
..........and the horse looked so bad he would be in the mutuel field to boot:>) It was a different time Roke. Trainers had to rely on winning bets to survive. I'll never forget Al Danko, he would run a turf horse on the dirt till all that showed was bad dirt form. He'd put that baby on the turf and here he comes at big odds. He had a small stable yet was able to earn a good living betting on his own horses. He had a horse named Tidy Beau and he actually had two big bows. He was a throw in, in a 3 horse package deal bought from Tartan Farm. My friend owned the horse and told me to keep my eyes open for a Miles Standish first time starter. The day comes and I see the horse is in for mdn. $5,000. I'm standing at the rail to see the horse come in and in walks this big, gangly lama looking thing. I see two big bows, open (no bandages for the uninitiated) for the world to see. His coat was dull and looked like he wasn't groomed for a week. Well that was exactly the case, Al purposely sent him over there looking like a plow horse so no one would look twice at him. Now Al Danko wasn't one to tip his horses and he would win at long odds, they would say only Danko knows when discussing one of his horses in the body of a race:>) He wouldn't tell a soul for fear of losing the price, after all this was how he fed his family. This fateful day Ron Turcotte, who was a good friend of Al's was riding. He tells Ron as he gives him a leg up, just don't fall off, Turcotte knew what that meant! Tidy Beau runs away from those nickel maidens and wins by 7 paying near $30. Turcotte jumps off the horse and yells to Al, you cudda' said something. Al says I did, I told you don't fall off:>). His following start he runs back in an Alw. race against Mr. Jerkens and Prove Out who beat Secretariat. Prove Out was odds on, Tidy Beau was 5-1 and galloped again. He ended up 3rd in the JB Cambell at bowie that year before those ballon sized tendons finally gave out. Those were the days, it was tough to earn a living if you didn't have a big outfit. Al Danko was one of the few that knew how. TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

TJ - NOBODY ever born was better than Tommy Gullo with his layoffs. He'd work them at 3AM when no one was around and they'd always go from 15:1 to 6:1 in the last flash...that's how much $$$ he'd push through the window.

Chester Ross was always good with his first timers at a price. Remember how they'd always work so slow, the clockers never knew if the horses broke off from a pole or just two minute licked? Chester Ross was one of the best at having a firster ready with a bunch of crappy works published.

Bobby DeBonis had a good trick - he'd always put full cup blinkers on a horse that he was trying to darken. The horse would show nothing, and as soon as he'd race the horse with the blinkers off, they'd always win at a price. His "boys" were always kept happy with that move.

It was fun when guys back then played their fun and games.

[TJ]

n

TJ - NOBODY ever born was better than Tommy Gullo with his layoffs. He'd work them at 3AM when no one was around and they'd always go from 15:1 to 6:1 in the last flash...that's how much $$$ he'd push through the window.

Chester Ross was always good with his first timers at a price. Remember how they'd always work so slow, the clockers never knew if the horses broke off from a pole or just two minute licked? Chester Ross was one of the best at having a firster ready with a bunch of crappy works published.

Bobby DeBonis had a good trick - he'd always put full cup blinkers on a horse that he was trying to darken. The horse would show nothing, and as soon as he'd race the horse with the blinkers off, they'd always win at a price. His "boys" were always kept happy with that move.

It was fun when guys back then played their fun and games.

Roke,
I knew all those guys. When Gullo was sneaking one out in the AM (carrying the flashlight for the rider), Chester was coming back:>) DeBonis couldn't shine their shoes, but the drop was the best hop in those days, (the blinker change was so the stewards didn't call him in) he had money behind him with Chassrig to pull it off. Chester was the greatest, Daring Groom, Love is Eternal, Bold Skipper, Cannon Shell--if he had real stock (not just the Seymour Cohn homebreds) he could have been somebody. TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

TJ,

They all bet. Campo ran uncoupled entries, Woody Stephens would use Joe "Brokenback" Brocklebank on a baby to cash a ticket, Evan Jackson would aways use a 10 pound rider when he stretched a horse out, Frank Martin would drop a horse in half off a claim and dare ya to take it, Bob Dunham would stiff a horse five times with a no-name rider and win when he used Mike Venezia, and so on and so on...the good ol' days!

[TJ]

TJ,

They all bet. Campo ran uncoupled entries, Woody Stephens would use Joe "Brokenback" Brocklebank on a baby to cash a ticket, Evan Jackson would aways use a 10 pound rider when he stretched a horse out, Frank Martin would drop a horse in half off a claim and dare ya to take it, Bob Dunham would stiff a horse five times with a no-name rider and win when he used Mike Venezia, and so on and so on...the good ol' days!

Ya, meet ya at Esposito's and we'll drink to it :>) TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

Remember when Parisella first picked up Ted Sabarese and he ran all those first time starters for a tag and they all won? The cookie jar next to Parisella's bed wasn't full of cookies, I bet ya! LOL!

[TJ]

Remember when Parisella first picked up Ted Sabarese and he ran all those first time starters for a tag and they all won? The cookie jar next to Parisella's bed wasn't full of cookies, I bet ya! LOL!

Saw John the other day, he's down here in Florida for the GP meet--first time in years:>) TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

He's with Tony Margotta's old people, the Kupferburgs.

[TJ]

In reading some of these posts I realized how professional gambling has changed since the advent of the internet. Most all of the professional gamblers I knew were based at NY tracks and were at the track daily. They concentrated only on the meet at hand. A handful of them would make the double header from Aqueduct to The Meadowlands, it was early racings simulcasting via the automobile:>) Other than the local professional gamblers were the professional gambling syndicates that would fly into NY (with a briefcase full of money on the red eye) when the pick six carryover was worth the trip. I don't think these guys were as sophisticated as the home team's professional gambler, but they would spread so much on the ticket they could afford a flyer or two. They usually went back with the money too:>) Getting back to the home team, they were experts in the body language and appearance of the horse and took particular note of their condition in the paddock and on the track. They would note every little detail of change from it's previous race or races, for example today the horse is dull/lifeless in the paddock, the horse is breaking out, acting nervous, hard to saddle, a change of equipment not noted on the program (eg. the type of B's he wears today may have a different cup) anything that may alter the horses performance today either by mistake or by design. Most kept their binoculars on that horse from the time they walk into the paddock, then how they look and act while they warm up on the track. At that time, when they were assured all systems are go, they raced to the window to place their wager.
Today with internet wagering a person can bet on a horse without the ability to note these subtle changes for himself. They call themselves gamblers without ever placing foot on a racetrack. It certainly was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past. The internet has certainly changed this business of professional gambling, having to rely on other peoples opinions of the horse in the paddock, listening to comments by those present, hoping they will put the camera on the horse you want to see when you want to see it. Listening to TV touts that can influence your opinion. The professional gamblers I knew would be asked by owners and trainers if their horse had a shot to win today. Now can someone tell me how to set up this computer:>) TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

It certainly was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past.

TJ - I actually think that it's tougher today.

Back in the day, racetrackers that followed only one circuit knew trainer moves that casual fans wouldn't. Today, percentages on everything are available - there are no secrets any more.

No matter what an Allen Jerkens horse looks like on paper, if he runs a horse within seven days of its last race or a bullet work, they win at a 37% clip - and always have. There was a time when that info wasn't available unless people kept their own stats, and a horse like that would go off at 5:1. Now, that info is available to everyone and the same horse today will go off 2:1.

When Jose Martin was active in the claiming game, he had something like a 50% win average (some amazing stat like that) when he'd ship a horse to the Meadowlands, it would run poorly, and then he'd ship it back to Aqueduct and drop it in class off the Meadowlands race. There were guys in Equistris every day (Sal, Johnny T, Bobby Donato, and that bunch) that used to wait for that move and get 4:1 on it. Today, any bozo can look up trainer stats and the same horse would go off 6:5.

[TJ]

It certainly was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past.

TJ - I actually think that it's tougher today.

Back in the day, racetrackers that followed only one circuit knew trainer moves that casual fans wouldn't. Today, percentages on everything are available - there are no secrets any more.

No matter what an Allen Jerkens horse looks like on paper, if he runs a horse within seven days of its last race or a bullet work, they win at a 37% clip - and always have. There was a time when that info wasn't available unless people kept their own stats, and a horse like that would go off at 5:1. Now, that info is available to everyone and the same horse today will go off 2:1.

When Jose Martin was active in the claiming game, he had something like a 50% win average (some amazing stat like that) when he'd ship a horse to the Meadowlands, it would run poorly, and then he'd ship it back to Aqueduct and drop it in class off the Meadowlands race. There were guys in Equistris every day (Sal, Johnny T, Bobby Donato, and that bunch) that used to wait for that move and get 4:1 on it. Today, any bozo can look up trainer stats and the same horse would go off 6:5.

OK, Roke, you cited things that make it easier for the handicapper today, in the past that was all done with personal records and stacks of saved racing forms. I stand by what I said, It was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past. Jose Martin was a great claim artist and a good trainer overall, remember Verbum? TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

Offhand, I don't remember Verbum.

Jose Martin was a genius at the claiming game, often winning on the drop like his Father. Frank LaBo used to work in reverse - he'd win on the move up in class off a bad race, and would NEVER win on the drop - once he dropped a horse, it eventually dropped to the bottom.

I think the only thing better for the professional gambler today is convenience...he can sit in his bathroom with his laptop and make a bet and follow what's going on at a track. But I think it's a lot harder finding value because of so much information out there available to anyone. Plus, there are now Rag and Thorograph sheets that can kill value on any horse that a pro has been waiting for - that stuff wasn't out there 25 years ago.

Remember when some barns would bet early and the price would drift up, instead of late money making the price go down? I always thought that was a slick more - people would see some nag open at 5:2 and avoid it. BIG mistake! LOL!