bcassidy,
for about the last year and a half I have made a living "playing the races".. if you can't tell by my post count, I pretty much sit in front of my TV and watch HRTV and TVG all day long. I have a business background even at my young age this isn't the first time I've worked for myself or had a business.
First of all, I don't view what I do as gambling.. I view it as a business. and as much time as I spend doing it, it damn well is. It's not that it can't be done... there are too many people out there doing it and people who have done it, indlugind msyelf to prove otherwise.. Mr. rooney of pittsburg steelers fame built that team on the back of belmont park. he was one of the best handicappers of the 20th century. You have to LOVE horse racing to do this for a living. everyone wants to know what my "secret" is or what forumla o what method I use to pick winners.
a normal day consists of me getting up about 7ish, working out, cutting on the TV and getting in some good UK racing before the american racing comes on... watching HRTV and TVG until about 7pm, then going back and watcing race replays of ALL the races I didn't see on TV and someo f the ones I did, makign notes of who I liked and why, then after that, handicapping the races that have horses in them that Ilike for the next day. when I post on here, it's usually in between race loads on racereplays. it's how I kill time.
anyway... it's a 16-18 hour day. and I love it. not everyone does. but that is very much what you are in for. information is key, and who has the BEST, not hte most information is ahead in the game. I honestly believe this is why most people don't try to play the races and why they resolt to the fact that youc an't beat the game.. which is the most overused and illigically corect statement I have eve heard.. I don't have to beat the game, this isnt' a casino.. i have ot beat you, the bettor.. it's para mutal wagering.. and as long as I consider myself to be ahead of most betters at hte track I'm in great shape.
I consider myself a very competent handicapper but I need to speak with someone about the gambling side of the handicapping.
I am not a millionare (yet
but I live very, very comfortably, and I will tell you, I am not the best handicapper on earth. its' my realzing that that ha sallowed me to make a profit at this game.
I have accecpted the fact that I am never going to win more than 35% of the races I handicap. so the trick is, how to profit from that 35% asm uch as possible. that's where 90% of all handicappers get it wrong. I am able to accecpt that I (gasp) might be wrong and take it into account.
there is a difference betweeen picking a winner and making a BET on a winner. every wger I make is wit the mindset if I make this wager 100 times, how much ahead am I goign to come out if at all? If i love a horse, but i know I only win 35% of the time, I know that at 3/5 if I LOVE a horse it's nto a very wise bet to bet long term at 35% and expect a long term profit if that makes sense. money management in other words.
every book out there sucks bigtime on how to do it for a living. you have to remember,t his isn't poker... you aren't playing against the house, you are playing against other people. and the successful, the really successful ones, aren't oging to tell you how to beat them. people who have to write books on how to play the horses for a living, i promise you, are not playing the horses for a living and doing it well.
also, this is something that took me 8 years to hone. it didn't come overnight. I knew when I was in high school I wanted to play horses and it took 8 years of trails and errors to get it "right". it's not a get by night scheme, and that's where so many people fall off the wagon. you are going to take lumps, take loosing streaks, big ones. when your money is on the line you start to notice things that as a "fan" you didn't notice... and develop strong opinions about them..
my peronall turning point was the 2005 kentucky derby, it was after that race that I just stopped making bets and stopped thinking in short terms, and told myself I wasn't placing another bet until august, i was just going to sit and watch races for 4 months.. becuase I was ovbiously missing "something" and I was.
handicapping is picking who is going to win a race.. you don't want to handicap, you want to make a living. remember that
The truth is most good handicappers aren't that good at making money gambling. T
PREACH IT!!
I went to monmouth park for breeders cup week. there was a guy who I know from antoher forum who had been begging me to meet him, so I met him there. I am always very, very reluctant to give out my picks, I do some fo fun buf90% of them I won't do not beause I'm afraid of loosing, but I don't wnat to ruin a friendship if I give a wrong pick.
Here was what I picked forthe BC meet:
F&M Sprint: Dream Rush/ La T. I wasn't going to bet that race because neither of them offered any value
Juve Turf: I had no idea whatsoever
dirt mile: corinthian
Filly Juve: Smarty Deb
Juve: Wicked Style
Sprint: Lute, didn't bet, no value
Fily and mare turf: lauhoudood (whatever)
mile: Excellent Art
Distaff: hystericalady
Turf: Shemidian
Classic: curlin, didn't bet, no value
Now... if you played these tickets straight up, without taking any other advice, you would have walked away with a profit. not a bad one.
I told the guy.. look.. don't bet the F and mare sprint, the TVG sprint or the classic. they don't offer value. and IMHO they dont'. yes, Lute and curlin won, but what if either didnt' like slop? the classic could hve went to 6 different horses, I like curlin but not at under 5 to 1.
so he doesn't bet thoose and they win. I can tell he's aggiated.
even worse, he didn't have the "guts" to bet a 12 to 1` shot in the FandM tuf. i'm sorry, but if you dont' have the "guts"t bet a horse because of his odds are long you will never ever make a profit at the track. ever. because odds are based on public opinion not actual value. that is a filly who won the toughtest prep going into that race and she's going off at double digit odds.. I cashed in on that one.
so at the end of the day, he is blaming me for not only not betting the races that won, but for NOT BETTING THE RRACES THAT I WON and somehow I hid some inside information from him.
I tried to explain to him... if you goal was to come here and play the horses and have a little fun, take 50 bucks and tryt to pick a winner here and there, then yes.. thoose aren't bad picks. but at the end of the day, my goal is nto that. my goal is to TURN A PROFIT at the end of the year. I can't do that by taking midnight lute on the slop, coming off a beyer that could have been fool's gold at 2 to 1. I like the horse, but not at 2 to 1. if you can't get that, you have issues.
I also would not be able tog do what i do without computers. I don't bet one track, I bet all of them. i cherry pick races I like from each track. I am ableo tsee the toteboard on each track in real time from my laptop. I can see value in show pools if I wanted to play a show bet. I can watch replays online fom across the county. nope.. could not have done it 10 years ago.