Professional gambling

[Rokeby Forever]

Finally a sensible, non argumentative voice is heard:>) How are ya Roke...TJ

Sensible...from me? TJ, are you feeling OK? LOL!

[TomFool]

I dont post anything to try & be negative towards anyones thoughts or ideas but if I have an opinion about something I can & will post it. Here is another OPINION no personal attack but if you let something as minor as people you dont even know posting something on the internet bother you to the point that you think they are attacking you when they are not. I cant see how you can handle your emotions enough to ride the rollarcoaster ride that is the life of someone that is a pro gambler.

[Gallop58]

BDW: Back to the original question, of money management strategies... I am a rank amateur, but I find the fields of expected value and probablity statistics interesting. From my internet perusings, I seem to find lots of info on sports betting and money management, the most logical being detailed math reviews of the Kelly Criterion for bankroll growth strategies. The key to Kelly betting (as I understand it) is complete understanding of your edge on various types of bets. Kelly is the way to go if you have a very accurate edge. If you don't, many suggest fractions of the Kelly bet (1/4 Kelly, 1/2 Kelly, etc.)
My thought process is that if one could understand and apply or specifically choose to not apply the Kelly criteria, one would be so deep into expected value, bankroll management, and edge understanding that you'd be as close as possible to maximizing what you are looking for in horse betting....
Have you gone down this road and found it coming up short?
I can't seem to remember why I think this, but I have assumed that the sophisticated electronic bettors (usually in Australia it seems) run computer models similar to financial ,arket models and they analyze the totes automatically, basically looking for edge vs odds discrepancies (and possibly pure arbitrage)

KH

[bdw0617]

ah money management, something that never gets talked about and it is probably the most important part of handicapping.


I am familar with that.

that theory, there is another name for it. it might be kelly, but it is basically playing the max amount depending on how good of a chance you think a horse has. In other words if you like a horse that you think will win half his races if he ran 50 times in this race, bet half of your bankroll.

I would be lying if I said I ever practiced that. I will explain what I do.

My theory of money management comes from the great James Quinn. it's actually a diration of it. I was reading a book I bought called "the best of thoroughbred handicapping: advice on handicapping from the experts" (quie possibly the best book on handicpaping i ever read BTW) It's called the fixed percentage minimum (page 163) meaning you bet a percentage of your bank roll. It suggests 5%. I bet 3% because I have a nice sized bankroll.

My diration of this is that if I ReALLLLLY like a horse (war pass in the champaine) I will bump up to 5% but that might happen 3 times a year. not often. can't miss as can't miss gets in my eyes. I usually stick with 3%

this does two things. First of all, loosing streaks don't hurt AS bad. If I start with 2 grand and I loose 10 in a row at 3% is going to leave you at about $1,570 dollars. A 8 to 1 shot gets you even. I dont' bet under 5 to 1 shots 99 out of 100 times. half the time I do is because of late money on 5-6 to 1 shots.


see I'm doing everything in my power to assure that my bankroll is not an issue. that is the main proble mwtih most people. not pickign winners.. it's when you pick loosers you freight. I have enough money and the percentages play out enough I can loose 20 races in a row and really not freit.. my horse is going to come sooner or later and all it takes iw 1-2 to get me back where I need to be. but by chasing 9/5 shots all day long i'm running in circles.

also by NOt playing straight bets, I am not maxing what I could make and I am shrinking my bank roll. what i mean is let's say I go on a 4 race win streak. the payoffs are:

$9.80
$16.40
$12.00
$11.00

at $2,000 playing straight $60 dollar bets (3%) I would be at $2,588

by betting 3% of my bankroll is going to put you well over $3 grand there is no upside whatsoever ot straight betting.


beating useing the kelly system, in theory it works, but I dont' have te stomach to bet that much at one time. part of the reason Ic an make a profit is because I i know my life isn't hinding on every bet I make. or my bankroll.I don't have that with the kelly system. plus after a loosing streak it can get ugly. and you will have loosing streaks.

then when is enough enough? if a great day of handicapping can net me a thousna dbucks on win bets.. what the hell else do you need? plus my bank roll gets bigger.

make it as hard as possible for you to not earn a profit. take the money angle out of it. there is no forumla in haidcapping but i use an easy one for my money management.. 3%, start with a nice bankroll.. ocne I hite a certian point i put some up and take out what I need to pay bills and stuff, put 10% of earnings back into the my horse racing savings acocunt so if I do ever get tapped out I have another bankroll.

[imnumberjuan]

I have loved reading this thread.

I concur with bdw you have to accept your going to lose most of the time; handicapping is like playing baseball a game of adjustments.

I have also loved the threads take on following trainers and their antics. I first went to the races a rainy afternoon in '99, my teacher was my landlord, and he laid out "rules" (rule number 7 was Jockey Trainer combinations, my favorite at Northlands park is Trainer Darcy Hawkes and jockey Ron Blinston, my favrote in jockey trainer combination was Kiaran Mclaughlin and Jara - Like Now in the Gotham, Jazil, Invasor - they were my personal bank machine. This past summer was Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands at Woodbine.)

I think if you have a strategy and stick to it, ie the win only, win3 win4 etc you can make money at this.

[bdw0617]

I have been putting a little money back every month this year, because I am really going to try to dive into the pick 6 pools on a constant basis more than I did this past year.. there is just too much money to be made.

when it comes to pick 6's, i'm about max value and lowest possible (plausable) investment. with santa anita kicking off and about a week passing, i should be ready to go next week.

[imnumberjuan]

Best of luck to you bdw

[louis finochio]

My bread & butter are maiden races. I break down their pedigrees and when I find a stickout, I will place a king size wager. The class angle is what I look for, as these types of plays are very profitable.

[imnumberjuan]

Louis,

I like 2 year old maidens the best - followed by 2 yo stakes races =)

[Playwithfire]

BDW,
I think if you want to use the Kelly system as part of your money management strategy, from my understanding of it, you need to figure out what your edge is. Maybe you already know this, but if you are over the long haul netting a 10% return on all your wagers (winning $1000 for every $10k wagered), then you'd want to make your bets 10% of bankroll or something like that. If you are winning 33% of bets (I think you mentioned that figure) and average price is 5-1, that would mean you are collecting $2 for every $1 wagered. 1) that seems kinda high, and 2) that would seem like you should be wagering more than 3-5% (to maximize long term profits). Just trying to understand, i am very interested in your posts as a fan of statistics and gambling inkind. So i guess my question is, "What is your edge?"

I can imagine though if you are playing every track theoretically, then liquidity comes into play. hell, i've plopped down $50 win bets at cal expo just to watch odds go from 15-1 to 4-1 15 min to post (then quickly cancelling the ticket). If you are making a living by this, how often does liquidity come into play at these smaller tracks?

[jainct]

The best gamblers I ever knew would wait for a certain type of race. They would handicap every day, but they could go 3 or 4 days without finding a bet to make. TJ is right - you can beat a race, but you can't beat the races.

Hi Roke,
Geez, ya made be blush--right before I fainted:>) Professional gamblers come so few and far between, especially these days with so many types of bets and so many tracks offered--it makes it so much harder to focus and use restraint. I've seen entire familys, businesses, marriages, houses, horses and everything else of value fit between that six inch space where you would push the money under the bars to the teller:>) TJ

part of the rerason I am successful or sat least some of it, ist he amount of races I have abailable to me these days. I dont' have to make bets at 1 track. On a given friday I have about 120-130 races to choose from. When I first started out I would literalry make 30 bets a day, I had to just get in on the action. the more I wagered the more I learned that another race would start pretty damn soon. Tehre are days I go without making a bet. days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

On the avg day I might make 2 bets.

You claim that part of the reason you are successful is because you have 120-130 races to choose from but then you said you handicap a race for an hour and pass the race. My question to you is, how do you know which race to handicap if you have 120 to 130 races a day to choose from if it takes you 1 hour to handicap a race? It's great to have that many races to choose from but there is no way you can handicap that many races in one day. That would be quite overwhelming.

jainct

[jainct]

days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?

Very true about Pat Reynolds. Bad running lines and the horse was bet down to a point where you know he felt good about todays race. Unfortunately, he dibbled and dabbled in a lot of other races. I remember one time Pat claimed a 5yo mare for a dime. All her running lines were on the dirt sprinting. I knew she was well bred up and down on the turf and asked him if he was going to try the turf. He said we will see. Make a long story short the mare went on to win over 100k on the turf going long. I guess Pat claimed her for that reason...LOL.. Things did change over the years. Serey comes to mind. He won alot of races but Juan touted every horse he ran. There was always a crowd around him. Same thing with Greg Martin before he got in trouble. He went to the window and so did his backers. His horses looked bad on paper but were winning off the screen. Like anything else in life all good things don't last forever. I think things were more hushed up years ago (meaning the 60's and 70's) than later on in the years. I would get to the clubhouse and get get touted 3 or 4 horses in 1 race. It really got out of hand and to the point that you didn't want to see anybody.

jainct

[jainct]

TJ - It's still an edge to know how a trainer operates, but trainer patterns can be looked up by a 10 year old.

The Rag and Thorograph sheets don't take one thing into account - they can tell you how fast a horse has run, but they can't tell you when a trainer has been darkening form. They'll show a dropoff in numbers and the user might conclude that the horse is off form, but when trainer patterns can be looked up, anyone can see what a trainer is actually doing by combining the two. A pro is the guy that takes the time to do that, as opposed to some sheet bettor with a $20 bill in his hand that doesn't know any more than what the sheets say. But it's all out there now...anyone can do it. The pro has no edge any more.

Hello Rokeby:

I don't believe many trainers today darken a horses form unless it's a trainer that owns the horse and has a small racing outfit. The reason I say this is because the owners of todays are different from years ago. Most owners are lucky if they can their pay bills and are less interested in cashing a ticket. You have all these partnerships today and the way the competition is among trainers, I think you see less of this especially given the fact that the purse structures are different today compared to years ago. What do you think?

Jainct

[jainct]

I believe trip handicapping provides one of the best edges in today's game because it involves time, work, and expertise that the public doesn't put in.

And trip handicapping often goes against the grain of the top speed figure horses, who are typically pounded at the windows.

Hello

The thing about trip handicapping is knowing what to look for that a handicapper would normally miss. Off slowly, steadied, checked, and wide trips are quite noticeable by the handicapper that takes the time to watch replays which leads to lower odds next out. Another thing about trip handicapping is when horses that have horrendous trips sometimes exert so much energy to overcome the mishap that next time out the horse throws a bad race.

For me trip handicapping the races is to view the jockeys and how they are putting out. You will have your share of jocks that won't let a horse run because the horse might not have warmed up well. I rather pay attention to a horse that is unhappy down the inside getting hit with dirt and when the jockey finally gets clear the horse makes a good run late. Another part of my trip handicapping would be to watch horses that have outside posts and have early speed and need to exert alot of energy early on to get to the lead. Many things take place during the turn. Horses that gets shuffled back losing lengths only to come back on in the stretch. I also take notice to a horse that's inbetween horses. They have a tendency to back out especially if the pace is rapid. I try to watch for horses that I feel need to have an equipment change such as blinkers on for horses that seem to not have their mind on their business. Watch for jockeys that have a hard time with a horse lugging in. Maybe a different bit could make the difference. As you can see there are plenty of things to look for in a race that can lead to some big mutuals next time out.

jainct

[jainct]

I remember probably my worst and funniest day of the year was mid summer at churchil downs when I had to loose every damn race by a nose. I dont' know if you know the horse quasicobra or not, but boy I had his ass pegged for an allowence win, coming down the stretch, he has it by about a length, here comes calvin borel on his mount and just starts playing bumper cars, moves my horse out 2 wide, his horse wasn't good enough to hold on and a 16 to 1 shot brings it home. No inquiry.
shit happens. you have to account for it.[/quote]

I think you have that wrong. Your horse took the lead about the 1/16 pole and the winner was Morada Key who came 10 wide on the turn and closed determinely under brisk urging to get up with Mark Guidry aboard. Your horse that day was the favorite and the winner went of at 32-1.

jainct