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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:22 pm 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:42 pm
Posts: 691
Location: Lexington, KY
jainct wrote:
I think you have that wrong. Your horse took the lead about the 1/16 pole and the winner was Morada Key who came 10 wide on the turn and closed determinely under brisk urging to get up with Mark Guidry aboard. Your horse that day was the favorite and the winner went of at 32-1.


He might be referring to the June 1 turf race at Churchill in which Kettle Hill and Quasicobra bumped in deep stretch. Quasicobra was the winner but was DQ'd.

Chestermite was put up as the winner. I remember this race well, b/c I bet on Chestermite (turf breeding angle, 10-to-1) and profitted from the DQ. One of my luckiest bets of the year...


Last edited by Ill-bred on Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:24 pm 
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Yearling

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bdw0617 wrote:
my point proven, about ify ou wait long enough, and be patient, the "race" will come to you, sitting here watching charles town earlier tonight while having a drink, docs refleciton, at 4 to 1 mornling line, and had a decent shot in the race, goes off at freakin 21 to 1. and wins.

I'd be lying if I said I made a bet, I hadn't handicapped that race. But thoose are the types of values you get if you are just patient and stop trying to squeeze water out of rocks.


You said you didn't handicap the race but you thought he had a decent shot. Never ever go by the morning line at CT. Most of the time he is way off. That horse by the way his name is Doc's Redemption should have been 20-1. His last race going into the race he ran at LRL for a 7.5k2l and ran a dismal 10th losing by 36 lengths. He was then entered at Penn for the same condition and was scr. The night he ran at CT he was in a 6k3l with only a maiden 10k win under his belt should not have been listed at 4-1 morning line. The track came up muddy that night and at CT when the track is off either your horse takes to it or not. He did but my point was you didn't see an overlay because the horse was a legit 4-1 morning line horse.

jainct


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:29 pm 
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Yearling

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Ill-bred wrote:
jainct wrote:
I remember probably my worst and funniest day of the year was mid summer at churchil downs when I had to loose every damn race by a nose. I dont' know if you know the horse quasicobra or not, but boy I had his ass pegged for an allowence win, coming down the stretch, he has it by about a length, here comes calvin borel on his mount and just starts playing bumper cars, moves my horse out 2 wide, his horse wasn't good enough to hold on and a 16 to 1 shot brings it home. No inquiry.
shit happens. you have to account for it.


I think you have that wrong. Your horse took the lead about the 1/16 pole and the winner was Morada Key who came 10 wide on the turn and closed determinely under brisk urging to get up with Mark Guidry aboard. Your horse that day was the favorite and the winner went of at 32-1.

jainct


He might be referring to the June 1 turf race at Churchill in which Kettle Hill and Quasicobra bumped in deep stretch. Quasicobra was the winner but was DQ'd.

Chestermite was put up as the winner. I remember this race well, b/c I bet on Chestermite (turf breeding angle, 10-to-1) and profitted from the DQ. One of my luckiest bets of the year...[/quote]

He did win and did get DQ to 6th place but that was not the race he was reffering to because he said there was no inquiry. Alo he said the winner was Borel and the day Chestermite was put up, I believe Troilo rode the Chestermite.

jainct


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 4:02 pm 
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Yearling

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bdw0617 wrote:
I don't feel it's very prudent or necessary to disclose how much i bet, it's of no consequence, but I'm not betting 5 and 10 dollars that I can tell you.

terms like "nickel and dime' and "grinden out a profit" and stuff like that are overused clishqed terms that make no sense. if by nickel and dime you mean not making 500k in one bet then yes.


Actually, about 25% of my profits came from 2 bets. the pacific classic and another race at hollywood park that was an allowence race.


Quote:
It sounds like you may make a profit but no more than an average low paying job overall.


you sure are assuming alot without knowing anything whatsoever about how I bet or how much my bankroll is or what I did before I got into this but that's fine

If we worked on the assumption that what is accepted as true really is true, then there would be little hope for advance


instead of actually asking questions, you are attacking my creditability and calling me poor. witout knowing anything other than the fact that ovbiously I have a passion for horse racing, which is why I come here. that in itself tells me alot. That I will not take thet ime to respond to because there is no point.

I have done nothing to anyone in this thread, yet I am getting attacked from all sides. why? honestly? I wanted to respond to the first poster who had a legit question, and the thread has become nothing more than "prove bdw wrong". I have no reason to lie to anyone here. hell look at my post count, I'm online enough. Ovboiusly I do something that lets me stay home all day long. I post picks for the hell of them. I miss some I hit some.

here I am, willing, eagerly willing at that, to answer any question anyone might have on anything I do in regards to handicapping

If you, and by you I mean anyone are trying to convicnce yourself that handicapping can't be done and made a lifing off of, by tearing me down, you are wasting your time. I don't go into what I have/don't have because it's none of anyone's business on this forum but I'm not living on the street and I'll leave it at that.

if anyone has any legit questions that don't have nasty undertones, please feel free and I will talk all day long about actual handicapping, but this defending what I do for a living, not CAN i do it for a living but w hat I actually do for a living, is getting silly.


Hello bdw:

The reason this happens is because you said you successfully win at the races. That is a big chunk of words coming from a handicapper to another handicapper. Of course people will think you are full of crap. The only way to prove your success is to be with someone from the board each day to prove you are a winning handicapper and that's not going to happen.

I believe one of your above post you were redboarding about a horse from Maryland and one from CT. You easily spit out 2 double digit horses and expect people to swallow that easily. But of course you were making a point. Yes Wye was slightly an overlay that day but you said everything was the same as the last race. Actually you were wrong because the race before was supposed to be a turf race and it wound up on the dirt and had 7 horses that were not much to begin with. That is the reason you get that price. So to you he was an overlay but to the general public he was not.

Betty Buckridge slightly jumped up in class from a beaten 4k to an open 4k. The track came up muddy and the connections are low profile. Trainer wins at about 7% and the jock was a 10lb bug that had 1 win in 45 starts. To you the horse is an overlay but most of the time you are stacked against the odds looking for those kind of overlays. So, your handicapping is being questioned only because you claim to be a winner at the races.

jainct


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 8:47 pm 
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Darley line
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Location: FL, NY
jainct wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?


Very true about Pat Reynolds. Bad running lines and the horse was bet down to a point where you know he felt good about todays race. Unfortunately, he dibbled and dabbled in a lot of other races. I remember one time Pat claimed a 5yo mare for a dime. All her running lines were on the dirt sprinting. I knew she was well bred up and down on the turf and asked him if he was going to try the turf. He said we will see. Make a long story short the mare went on to win over 100k on the turf going long. I guess Pat claimed her for that reason...LOL..
jainct


You are referring to the turf mare, Elizer's Kiss....TJ


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 6:22 am 
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Yearling

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:16 pm
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TJ wrote:
jainct wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
days I spend an hour handicapping a race and then the horse I like is at 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 1 off an 8 to 1 morning line, I'll pass. there is another race.

I don't think that should be a set rule, BDW - some barns are alive ONLY when the toteboard says "TILT!" In NY, if trainers like Bob Klesaris and Pat Reynolds are suddenly 3:1 with a horse that has no chance on paper, run to the window!

TJ - remember when Mickey Preger used to be 3:1 with some 20:1 morning line nag and the horse would always win for fun?


Very true about Pat Reynolds. Bad running lines and the horse was bet down to a point where you know he felt good about todays race. Unfortunately, he dibbled and dabbled in a lot of other races. I remember one time Pat claimed a 5yo mare for a dime. All her running lines were on the dirt sprinting. I knew she was well bred up and down on the turf and asked him if he was going to try the turf. He said we will see. Make a long story short the mare went on to win over 100k on the turf going long. I guess Pat claimed her for that reason...LOL..
jainct


You are referring to the turf mare, Elizer's Kiss....TJ


Good call TJ


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:39 pm 
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Darley line

Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
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Location: Reno, NV
Pat Reynolds is a tremendous trainer when his head is screwed on. The job he did with Peeping Tom was second to none.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:05 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:05 pm
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
Pat Reynolds is a tremendous trainer when his head is screwed on. The job he did with Peeping Tom was second to none.


Don't know about this horse in particular, but I know Reynolds has been blessed in the past with an incredible Asst. Trainer. Some of the biggest name trainers in racing are only big names because of the real horsemen behind the scenes. JMO.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 2:34 pm 
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Absolutely, Bunty!

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 6:27 am 
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Yearling

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:16 pm
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Bunty Lawless wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
Pat Reynolds is a tremendous trainer when his head is screwed on. The job he did with Peeping Tom was second to none.


Don't know about this horse in particular, but I know Reynolds has been blessed in the past with an incredible Asst. Trainer. Some of the biggest name trainers in racing are only big names because of the real horsemen behind the scenes. JMO.


Who would that be? I know when he had Chago if that's how you spell it was helping Pat out tremendously.

jainct


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 6:57 am 
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Yearling

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:16 pm
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
Pat Reynolds is a tremendous trainer when his head is screwed on. The job he did with Peeping Tom was second to none.


"Head screwed on" I think sometimes in our life we all go through things at some capacity. He did a great job with Peeping Tom. He was claimed from a mdn40k with plenty of imput from Danielle Milazo. She had liked the way he closed in his race and was also impressed with his pedigree. He was a lazy horse in the mornings. Pat had added Blinkers and gelded and the horse went on to win over 1 million. His main problem over the years is that he was plagued with foot problems.

jainct


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2008 3:09 pm 
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jainct,

I just got back from a 15 day vacation from the bahamas, and I'm on my way to Hot springs later tonight so that I can stay down there for the live meet at oaklawn. I don't have to come on line to spout my daily picks to prove my "worth" to anyone.. also if you go back and read my post's I've nailed a couple here

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:34 pm 
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i thought about this after i left here last night, and this is for the orignal poster.. as generic as this many sound, dont' ever let anyone tell you what you can't do. NEVER. there is nothing that you can't accomplish if you want it bad enough, no ifs, no ands or buts about it, the only question is are you willing to sacrifice what is necessary to make your dreams a reality. Espically don't take advice from people who are not in a position that you aren't in.. you wouldn't take marriage advice from a 3 time divorcee, why take gambling advice from someone who doesn't do it for a living or even worse, who can't do it for a living.

everyone has an aboundent amount of untapped potential that goes unwasted becdause of what socitety and to a lesser extent themselves tell them and convince them what they can't do.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:44 pm 
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Grade I Winner

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Location: Maple Valley, Washington
BDW:

"everyone has an aboundent amount of untapped potential that goes unwasted becdause of what socitety and to a lesser extent themselves tell them and convince them what they can't do."

Is this what you really mean?:

"everyone has an abundant amount of untapped potential that goes to waste because of what society, and to a lesser extent themselves, tell them and convince them that they can't do"


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:56 pm 
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Ill-bred wrote:
jainct wrote:
I think you have that wrong. Your horse took the lead about the 1/16 pole and the winner was Morada Key who came 10 wide on the turn and closed determinely under brisk urging to get up with Mark Guidry aboard. Your horse that day was the favorite and the winner went of at 32-1.


He might be referring to the June 1 turf race at Churchill in which Kettle Hill and Quasicobra bumped in deep stretch. Quasicobra was the winner but was DQ'd.

Chestermite was put up as the winner. I remember this race well, b/c I bet on Chestermite (turf breeding angle, 10-to-1) and profitted from the DQ. One of my luckiest bets of the year...



that is the race i was reffering to. i was hot as could be that day.

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