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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2008 7:56 pm 
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Georgerz wrote:
BDW:

"everyone has an aboundent amount of untapped potential that goes unwasted becdause of what socitety and to a lesser extent themselves tell them and convince them what they can't do."

Is this what you really mean?:

"everyone has an abundant amount of untapped potential that goes to waste because of what society, and to a lesser extent themselves, tell them and convince them that they can't do"



yes sir. thanks

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:08 am 
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bdw0617 wrote:
jainct,

I just got back from a 15 day vacation from the bahamas, and I'm on my way to Hot springs later tonight so that I can stay down there for the live meet at oaklawn. I don't have to come on line to spout my daily picks to prove my "worth" to anyone.. also if you go back and read my post's I've nailed a couple here


I don't get that. Finding your previous posts where you nailed a couple of winners sure does not make you a professional winning handicapper. No, you don't have to come on line and give your daily picks to prove that you are a successful winner at the races.

I'm not saying that it's impossible to be a winning player year to year as you claimed earlier in this thread but when someone like you claimes to be a winner at the races, I will take the time to read your posts and try to see if you can backup your claim. I read enough of your posts to know that you are not there yet. Don't forget I read your posts about a couple of overlays that you believed to be overlays when in fact these horses were not the overlays you claim they are. The one overlay you spoke about was Betty Buckridge and I took the time to see how you came up with this overlay. This was a horse that was trained by a low percentage trainer and ridden by a 10lb bug that had 1 win in 40 something races. This type of horse is not an overlay and if you make it a habit of wagering on low percentage trainers and jocks that rarely win, I can't for any reason believe you are a winner at the races. I'm not saying that you will never become a winning handicapper but for now, I think you fit where most handicappers are.

jainct


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:49 am 
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bdw----thanks for your positive comments. I sometimes wonder if I could be a professional handicapper but it is one thing to make a few bucks at the track on the weekend and a totally different game to make a profit day in and day out, especially when the pressure to win is added to the equation.
I have learned many things about gambling because I enjoy it so much and one of the earliest lessons I have learned is that it is so much easier to win when you have no pressure to perform. It always appears that when I don't put pressure on myself I am an excellent gambler and as soon as I try to prove to myself that I can gamble consistantly at a profit--- I couldn't blow out a candle with a fan. The pressure to succeed causes me to change the way I bet. I find myself handicapping more and not gambling as much. As I said in my earlier post, my handicapping skills are very good, if not excellent and I can do it all, track bias', trainer/jockey combinations, breeding angles, trip handicapping, pace handicapping, speed handicapping, class handicapping, visual handicapping, etc; but that is not gambling. Handicapping and gambling are two totally different activities. I have spent so much of my time becoming a good handicapper and now that I can honestly say I have accomplished that I want to become an excellent gambler and there is no place to learn how to do it. The books are totally inept and most people I know are not doing it professionally---and probably couldn't.
I guess I will just have to start somewhere and refine my approach as I go forward. I will keep track of everything I do in writing because it will help to analyze everything after the day is over.
Any thoughts or books any one could recommend would be much appreciated.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:46 am 
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bdw0617 wrote:
Ill-bred wrote:
jainct wrote:
I think you have that wrong. Your horse took the lead about the 1/16 pole and the winner was Morada Key who came 10 wide on the turn and closed determinely under brisk urging to get up with Mark Guidry aboard. Your horse that day was the favorite and the winner went of at 32-1.


He might be referring to the June 1 turf race at Churchill in which Kettle Hill and Quasicobra bumped in deep stretch. Quasicobra was the winner but was DQ'd.

Chestermite was put up as the winner. I remember this race well, b/c I bet on Chestermite (turf breeding angle, 10-to-1) and profitted from the DQ. One of my luckiest bets of the year...



that is the race i was reffering to. i was hot as could be that day.



Which race was it? The Chestermite race or the one I said about Morada Key? Curious minds want to know.

Thank you,
jainct


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:09 pm 
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At hollywood park, a filly named ingrid the gambler by Joannesburg, trying turf for the first time and never finished off the board or worse than 2 lenghts back on dirt, in a MSW, was going off at about 8 to 1, against fillies who had for the most part proven they couldn't win. won for fun. 18 bucks.

you jus thave to be patient and not bet every race just beasuse there is a ace there.[/quote]

Ran back to back 2nds on the dirt and then went on the turf to win but never paid 18 bucks. He went off at odds a tad over 4-1. So, once again you fail to find the overlays. A horse that run 2nd twice on the dirt will be played on the turf just because he ran well enough to get played down to 4-1. He should have been more than those odd because he was trying the turf for the 1st time. Granted he had turf pedigree he still was an underlay. You said that she ran against fillies that proved that can't win. It was a MSW race and they were all non-winners. Are you saying that they were professional maidens?

jainct


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:27 pm 
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I own a string of race horses and I love to make the ocassional bet. There are of course, a number of handicapping factors that a bettor needs to consider including weight, class, distance, track condition, jockey, etc.

However, from my experience the biggest factor and the one almost always overlooked by the professional bettor, is how his selection looks in the ring or post parade. This is so critical that I do not believe that anyone can win betting horseracing, in the long term, by handicapping alone.

For instance, I had a horse once in a race, who was a prohibitive favorite. When I saw him in the ring however, he looked so terrible that I did not even consider making a bet on him. If I had not looked at him in the ring I would have thought that he was a dead certainty to win and lost my money betting him. Sure enough he finished down the field.

I got in the habit of placing a lot of emphasis on how a horse looks, some years earlier. I went to the track with an old horse trainer, who forgot to bring his reading glasses so he could not read the race program. Despite this, he picked 7 out of the 10 winners, in the ring. All he asked me to do was to tell him who were the three favorites and he would select from those. He argued that one of these favored horses would win a high percentage of the time, so he would put on blinkers and focus only on which of these horses looked best in the ring.

Since then I have learnt to evaluate a horse in the ring/post parade (live or on television) very well and have become quite an expert at it. I do win my share of races, even though I am admittedly a poor handicapper.

In my view, if a good handicapper were to factor in how a horse looks in the ring, into the equation, he would have a huge advantage over pure handicappers. That of course in the beauty of the game - we are all betting against each other, not against the house.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:31 pm 
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However, from my experience the biggest factor and the one almost always overlooked by the professional bettor, is how his selection looks in the ring or post parade. This is so critical that I do not believe that anyone can win betting horseracing, in the long term, by handicapping alone.
Quote:


go back and see my post on the first page. you are absolute correct. handicapping without looking at the actual horse before the race is just math. then again it helps if yo ujknow what his previous routines are before the race and how he or she looks. there are times when I will handicap a race and the horse looks all tied up before the race... never mind. i did that one day on a filly that looked half dead in the paddock and she won by 12 lengths.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 7:37 am 
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bdw

So, which is it, should you pay attention to how a horse looks pre-race or go with your handicapping, and play the horse even if it looks bad in the paddock or post parade?

DDT


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:05 am 
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DDT,

it's not black or white, it's more gray than anything. there are so many questions you have to ask yourself. For instance, if this horse isn't right, is this horse when he is not right still better than the field? sometimes he is. not often. but it happens. Say you see a horse just acting like an asshole in the paddock.. is that normal? for some horses it is. Remember that picture of any given saturday 2-3 days before the breeders cup? the one where he was drinched in sweet and looked like he lost alot of weight? that was not normal for AGS.

i can't stress this enough. handicapping is not a forumla. itls more of an artform. the more you try to make it a forumla IMHO, the more you try to say if you do X + Y you will get Z, the more you are limiting yourself.

if a horse is acting an asshole in the post parade and runs off but he's 14 to 1 and you think he has a GREAT chance to you take him out?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 11:58 am 
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I mostly stick with handicapping cuz I don't like getting caught between two opposing methods...

But one thing I do like to do is watch a horse warm up and see how they are hitting the ground. I like to see a horse striking the ground evenly and just skipping over the surface. This works best for me on dirt tracks.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 1:19 pm 
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bdw

Well, what I was getting at was your earlier statements in this thread that you would not bet a race without seeing the horses first, of course you did not say what you were looking for and if you saw something amiss what YOU would do. Now you say if you liked the horse that was acting up but was 14-1 what would "I" do. Do you see why I'm confused?

So, while we are at it, you say that handicapping books are useless, but in this thread you referred to Quinn as being great, his book being the best handicapping book you ever read, more confusion?

You said what you bet is your business, it was not $5 or $10 bets, but then you said some of your best profits came from $2.00 bets, more confusion?

You said you do not use past performances to handicap races, but you look at 120-130 races on any given Friday, and by that I assume you mean look at the entries, so how do you handicap any given race without past performance data? You must keep a lot of notes. How do you know when a horse has last raced if you don't look at past performances, entries do not list this information. More confusion?

With all of your double talk you sound like a lawyer not a professional handicapper, but then you have done everything else in your young life it would not surprise me to find out that you also have done a little lawyering too.

DDT


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:41 pm 
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Ill-Bred

Evaluating a horse in the ring is not an opposing method. It should complement your handicapping. As I said, I am not a very disciplined handicapper, but I am an excellent judge of a horse in the ring. If I see a horse who is not coming off a layoff, with tight, filled out flanks, a nice shiny dappled coat, alert ears, tail held out nicely, good conditioning muscle, etc., as long as my handicapping says that he has a chance, that's who I will put my money on. If it one of my favored horses, you can be sure that I will increase my bet. I never ever bet on a horse that looks like a goat in the ring.

Heck, even Secretariat woke up one morning and decided he was not in the mood to run. Horses talk with their bodies and once you learn to read their body language, you have a huge advantage over pure handicappers.

My best days at the races are when I bet with my good freind who is an excellent handicapper. My job is to look at the horses, and tell him who stands out in the ring. His job is to handicap and make the bets. More often than not, this pooling of information works like a charm.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 8:42 pm 
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DDT wrote:
bdw

Well, what I was getting at was your earlier statements in this thread that you would not bet a race without seeing the horses first, of course you did not say what you were looking for and if you saw something amiss what YOU would do. Now you say if you liked the horse that was acting up but was 14-1 what would "I" do. Do you see why I'm confused?

So, while we are at it, you say that handicapping books are useless, but in this thread you referred to Quinn as being great, his book being the best handicapping book you ever read, more confusion?

You said what you bet is your business, it was not $5 or $10 bets, but then you said some of your best profits came from $2.00 bets, more confusion?

You said you do not use past performances to handicap races, but you look at 120-130 races on any given Friday, and by that I assume you mean look at the entries, so how do you handicap any given race without past performance data? You must keep a lot of notes. How do you know when a horse has last raced if you don't look at past performances, entries do not list this information. More confusion?

With all of your double talk you sound like a lawyer not a professional handicapper, but then you have done everything else in your young life it would not surprise me to find out that you also have done a little lawyering too.

DDT



okay i see what you mean.

everyone has strong points and weak points. part of making money is knowing where your bread and butter lies. 90% of the time I stick with claiming and allowence races. it's my bred and butter. I don't bet on maiden races and I try not to bet stake action, for the reason that I enjoy watching them run and USUALLY (unless there is real opprotunity) betting gets in the way of that.

what i meant by not making a bet until I i saw a horse run is basically i like to just know everything that i can going into a race. what i mean by it is, if i am going into a 10k claiming race I feel security in knowing what every horse in the race is going to do.


DDT, what i am really getting at and stick with me if you can.. and I think everyone will agree.. you know what the last law in the 48 laws of power is? Assuming formlessness. don't' be so stuck in your ways that you miss an opprotunity. each race is it's on entity. i'm doing the best I can to describe what I do but I can't because no two races are exactly the same.f i mean yes I Ihave a pattern of what I do which consists of watching hte replays usually 2 days before (today I handicapped for friday), going over any questions i have the next day and coming up with a betting game plan on how I'm goinig to attack the race and under what circumstances, when the rest starts I tune into HRTV or TVG or xpressbet 15 mintues before the race to watch the horses load up.. usually xpressbet because the TV shows dont' do a good job of showing the paddock. if i am at the track I go to the paddock. if everything adds up and I see nothing that would throw me off I go forward.

what i mean by assume formlessness... there is a certain level where a horse is poriftalbe no matter the odds and part of being a handicapper is to understand that well.. i'm going to loose 60% of my races. with that said.. say I see a horse that is morning line 6 to 1 and I have him dotted as a serious contender worthy of my money.. and he's going off at 15 to 1 because there is another horse that is getting ALL the money. let's say he's a class dropper from 2 classes that came in 2nd last race.

i go to the paddock and see he's a little antsy and acting out a little. i normally don't like that.. but at 15 to 1, if I had him penciled in as a contender, 15 to one on a horse that I would bet at 4 to 1 if I had the chance if he was right is worth the shot, at least in my eyes. I"m not so stuck on my ways that I'm not open minded


I didn't say handicapping books are uselss.. if I did that was a bad choice of words. let me put it this way, lyou are not going to do this for a living reading handicapping books. you will learn sure.. I read Quinn's book when I was in highschool.. that was almost a decade ago, before I went to the track everyday. when I didn't know what a trip was or how beyers were forumlated.

it's no different than trading stocks, which I also do. you can read all the stock excahge books you want but you aren't going to make any money and know eveyrthing you can until you get on the floor or open an etrade account and put your own money at risk.

Quinn's book is good because it is an excellent reference for learing how to manage money. My betting strategy is not some pie in the sky forumla, it's taken directly from his book and i altered a tad.


yes.. i've been going to the track for 15 years now DDT.... i didn't just start betting before I decided to do it for a living. i hit a copule as a child that were pretty nice betting though my dad off of basic handicapping skills. I also play pick 3's alot and alot of my pick 3's are 2-4 dollar bets. As a profit margin yes that is correct

LMAO, you ovbiusly do not have a race replays account. I can tell you evetything you want to know in racereplays about the horse. I don't sit at home and watch TIVO. I don't even know why people make such a big deal.. the only difference between race replays is no beyer number and I mean my gosh it's not the hardest number on earth to come up with if i had to.. i just don't use it.

how do you think when winds asked me about her last filly I knew evertyhing about the race? I can tell you the date fo the race and the time the race went off from my racereplays account. i can go back and look at races father back than you can in the DRF, I can go back to 2000. I can go back and look at EVERY one of Lava man's, the tin man and others races.

i'm not even going to expand on that anymore because you made a horrible assumption


what I don't get is what in the world have I done to you? I meet people up here at hte track all the time yet i'm lying to you. lol.

again.. I will be happy to offer advice but i have no need to defend myself.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2008 9:06 pm 
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bdw0617

"my only question is 6F might not be enough but he races close to the front so I don't know. Very interesting race" is a long, long way from "yet when I tell you to throw everything you have on him"

You flip-flop more than a Mexican jumping bean.

DDT




Quote:
bdw

A winnah.....


DDT




Quote:
bdw

Just keeps going and going, where's that 35%???

DDT



Quote:
bdw

Hey dude, you say you do this for a living, I don't care what you post here or do not post, what you have indicates that you do not know what you are doing when it comes to handicapping. Horse racing has never been close to how the stock market works, nor is it anything remotely connected with how you play poker, but you seem to think so, you are entitled to your opinion, and if you do not like the flack from posting losers, don't post. Where do you get the idea that everyone here cares about what horses you like or do not like?

I may be new here, but I know one thing, for almost every subject posted you have been there and done that, at 23.

DDT




Quote:
bdw

Nailed this one too, right, keep watching those replays because they tell you so much.

DDT



Quote:
bdw0617

First, if you do not use PP's how do you know Mach Ride is the best horse on paper?

Second, Foggytrip is entitled to an opinion as to who the best sprinter in America is, just as you are and for the record the Eclipse award for Midnite Lute was for the best sprinter in 2007, 2008 has yet to be decided.

Third, who are you to say you are not going to let anybody speak out on the forum, you can disagree, have a different opinion, cuss all you want, which incidently reflects your age and an apparent attempt to strengthen your opinions. A statement such as "It may be your opinion, but" goes a long way to keeping the posts civil.


Lastly, any losing bet is never a good bet, what you could win if you were correct will not give you a profit.

DDT


Quote:
bdw

Oh well, keep watching those replays, I guess Foggy's opinion has a little more weight behind it.

DDT



Quote:
bdw

Too bad there was no way in hell you would bet against Nash' Key.

DDT


Quote:
bdw

you said Pyro is a plodder, plodders do not run 6 furlongs at CD in 1:09 3/5 closing with a rush, nor do they run second at 1 1/16 eating slop all the way around, you would not know a plodder from a champion.

As to his pedigree, being by Pulpit, who finished 4th in his Derby with an injury, both grandsires, A.P. Indy, Belmont and BCC and Wild Again, winner of the first BCC, were Grade 1 winners at 10 furlongs, so I would say his pedigree says he will thrive at 10 furlongs.

As usual, your post is based on your opinion, not the facts.

DDT


Quote:
bdw

Well, what I was getting at was your earlier statements in this thread that you would not bet a race without seeing the horses first, of course you did not say what you were looking for and if you saw something amiss what YOU would do. Now you say if you liked the horse that was acting up but was 14-1 what would "I" do. Do you see why I'm confused?

So, while we are at it, you say that handicapping books are useless, but in this thread you referred to Quinn as being great, his book being the best handicapping book you ever read, more confusion?

You said what you bet is your business, it was not $5 or $10 bets, but then you said some of your best profits came from $2.00 bets, more confusion?

You said you do not use past performances to handicap races, but you look at 120-130 races on any given Friday, and by that I assume you mean look at the entries, so how do you handicap any given race without past performance data? You must keep a lot of notes. How do you know when a horse has last raced if you don't look at past performances, entries do not list this information. More confusion?

With all of your double talk you sound like a lawyer not a professional handicapper, but then you have done everything else in your young life it would not surprise me to find out that you also have done a little lawyering too.

DDT



i come here because of my love and passion for horses, not to get in flame wars. if you wish to pick a bone with me, pm me, email me or calll me, i'll be more than happy to give you my number. but not here. this is not hte place. have respect for the forum.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:42 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
bdw

I do have respect for the forum, that is why I question you when you say one thing and then another. I could care less if you make a living at the races or not, and how you do it is up to you, but, don't think that people on this forum forget what you post. You just said if you were going to play a horse at 4-1, but you have said time and time again that if you do not get 5-1 or better you pass the race, see things like that will get you called out, I have no bone to pick with you, just try to sitck with one opinion. Example, you say you NEVER play a race without the benefit of seeing the horses prior to the race, but if you play pick 3's, pick 4's and pick 6's, you have to wager before the first leg is off, so you go against what you have said, you will not bet if you cannot see the horses prior to the race.

You use the odds as your method, as long as your bankroll will support extended losers and, your average, in the long run, is 1 out of 3, so as long as you get 5-1 or better, you will be ahead at some point. It matters little how you handicap, you are using the odds in your favor. There is nothing secret about that.

And, before I forget, why don't you respect this forum and clean up your gutter mouth, that would be a start in the right direction.

DDT


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