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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:25 pm 
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For what it's worth, I did a conduit mare evaluation to try to determine which runners are best suited to the distance, and came up with:

First: #9 Shore Do
Second: #1 Sierra Sunset
Third: #8 Colonel John
Fourth: # 12 Into Mischief

I may play #9 to win if there is value, and box 1-8-9-12 for a superfecta.

I haven't looked at past performances so these may be way out of whack from a PP point of view.

Bill

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:38 pm 
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Hi Bill - good luck!

What was your determining factor choosing one horse over the other? Was it deciding which conduit mare you thought was the strongest overall, or the one that maybe was the best conduit mare for a race like this one?

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:51 pm 
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Hi Roke

It was after examining the whole profile of each entrant, which takes into consideration 16 individuals within a 4 generation pedigree and each of their conduit mare's contributions, which then creates the overall aptitudinal profile (for each runner). I also look at the profiles to project which horses may show speed at the distance, and which may be closers. I then try to figure out a potential pace scenerio. Of course after they have established their running styles in actual races, the profiles become less of a factor. However I always enjoy trying to figure out how individual entrants in any race stack up with each other from a conduit profile perspective.

Bill

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:59 pm 
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What the heck, why not give this tough race a try. This could be big balloons so I'm gonna try my bet a little win a lot theory with this one, 20 bucks can bring a windfall but won't hurt the wallet:>)
#5. Indian Sun.......if he can handle the synthetic he might benefit from a hot pace.
#12. Into Mischief...the outside post hurts, but I think Mandella may try to stalk today.
#2. Massive Drama..Has speed and an inside post, he can win it if a speed dual doesn't develope.
#11. Old Man Buck...I think he is better than he looks and I like his running style for this race.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 5:30 pm 
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Hi Bill,

I like that approach - thanks for explaining! :D

I'm with you guys with Into Mischief. I'm hoping that TJ's right...I think he can sit off the pace and get the jump on the other closers.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 5:54 pm 
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So technically speaking....when looking at genetic values (dosage & conduit) is it safe to say you are looking for the horse to have similiar numbers in particular division .

Say Horse A has these dosage: 9-2-4-2-3 and conduit 8-4-5-1-2 the race is 6f.

Horse B has D=2-0-4-8-2 conduit= 5-3-1-4-2 everything else (workouts,health,ect ect equal)

do you then based on these 2 numbers alone go with horse A? also presume this is a first time start for both. I would say horse A as his numbers say to me he is on paper bred for 6f. Or have I managed to mangle this number stuff all up?? :roll:

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:58 pm 
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Hi spex4me

You have the general idea. Heavy contributions on the left indicates potential aptitudinal speed. Heavy on the right stamina. There will always be exceptions, so I do take other things into consideration. On occasion I will just bet the profiles without looking at past performance just to test the numbers.

Bill

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:00 pm 
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Hi spex4me

You have the general idea. Heavy contributions on the left indicates potential aptitudinal speed. Heavy on the right stamina. There will always be exceptions, so I do take other things into consideration. On occasion I will just bet the profiles without looking at past performance just to test the numbers.

Bill

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 7:31 pm 
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Thank you Bill.... I aim to at least get a gist of these things. Too many components make for a bewildered Spex!! :oops:

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 8:31 pm 
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Just a note - there are two Tiznows in this race, and Tiznow is currently the #3 sire in North America on artificials. Maybe Slew's Tiznow and Colonel John should get some bonus points?

Something interesting:
George William Smith wrote:
14 Referee 69.68...by top sire Distorted Humor who throws foal after foal that race in top class races and the second highest GSV makes him a good pick

Distorted Humor is a terrific sire, but I don't understand how his genetic strength can be so strong in this race because Distorted Humor hasn't sired a SINGLE artificial surface stakes winner in all of 2007. He has 20 SWs in 2007, but NOT ONE is a SW on artificials. Overall, he's #19 in North American in 2007 in artificial track earnings. #19 with the horses he's sired? Didn't Referee run like crap at Keeneland? :roll:

Remember when Hystericalady lost her BC Distaff prep in the Lady's Secret on Santa Anita's cushion track? Who did she lose to? Tough Tiz's Sis...a Tiznow. That's what I would call genetic strength on artificials, wouldn't you? And why did Hystericalady run at Monmouth this last summer...didn't Jerry Hollendorfer say that Hystericalady doesn't like the artificials as much as plain dirt? Hmmm.......

I'm not saying that Referee can't win...he might. But what genetic strength does Distorted Humor bring to this particular race?

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:41 pm 
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you aren't saying referee can't win.. but I'll say it for you roke.


Refereee can't win.


Let's look at his 3 races.

He won, a decent win, albeit it at turfway park against no one, his first out.


He went into the grade 1 lane's end, and came in close to last, 10th place.

He then goes to a regular allownece race, at churchill on dirt, looses to eton's gift, in a time that wasn't that damn fast.

eaton's gift is going to be a graded stakes calibur horse, Grade 2/Grade 1 calibur, roman's is just taking it slow with him...but I mean it really wasn't even that close.

Also, his worst race came around 2 turns.


If you see something in his Past that screams bet please let me know because I dont' see it. that's the kinda horse that if he wins, you just tip your hat and move on. There are too many runners in this race in this race to throw hard earned money on a horse who hasn't shown anything worth betting up to now that he can run in a grade 1 race.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:38 pm 
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This should be a very interesting race to watch. It would be nice if every G1 race was this tough to handicap. Slew's Tiznow is scratched for those who haven't looked at the program yet.

My picks:

1. Colonel John. If Nakatani can get him a clean trip for the first time in his career he will win as impressively as Country Star last week.

2. Indian Sun. No shame in losing to The Leopard on the turf last time. I think he will like the Cushion track better.

3. Monba. Not sure he really wants this much distance but he'll have the lead at the head of the stretch and fight to stay there.

It's a tough race and should be a lot of fun to watch even if you're not betting.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:13 am 
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This will be an interesting race. To all that are betting, good luck, I hope everyone makes some money.

winds

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:46 pm 
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They scratched the 6 early and now 11. Old Man Buck, I'm putting 10. Monba in his place:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2007 5:56 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
I'm with you guys with Into Mischief. I'm hoping that TJ's right...I think he can sit off the pace and get the jump on the other closers.

I have to admit that I didn't use a database to come up with this horse...I pretty much just stuck my thumb up my butt and hoped for the best. :D

George William Smith wrote:
9 Shore Do 71.24... highest GSV
My system is cheaper and easier to use. LOL!

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