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 Post subject: Redboard Room
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 7:39 pm 
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Hi All, For those of you that aren't aware of what a redboard room is--allow me to explain. This is a room where we can discuss the how's, why's and wherefores of why we overlooked a horse. In so doing we can possibly learn from our mistakes and aid us in our handicapping ability. Track bias' info in general or possibly for only a short period of time. What should have been observed before the race was run, not after it and if it was noticed before why did it get away.......that is what redboarding is in a nutshell. Going back and seeing why you missed the boat. I think the Malibu winner would be a good horse to begin the redboard with. Feel free to change the subject to a different race, or just add something else of value that you may have noted, bad trips etc.
The reason I tossed him was 1) on a class/connection angle and 2) a pending speed dual. Logical enough, but not today. That was only two reasons and I tossed him although he had positives showing I still said he won't class up and will be spent in a speed dual. Wrong!
The reasons I saw before the race why he could have contended IF I thought he classed up:

1) He had the highest last race beyer in the field, always a positive factor.
2) He owned the track record at Hollywood Park going 6 1/2Fur. Making all the fractions his own, he went....21.4, 44, 1:07.3, 1:14 flat. OK, he lost the track record 3 weeks later, by 2/5 of a second....but this is one fast motorscooter!
3) He really likes the confetti track, winning 4 of 8 starts over it and running second 2 times. 6 of 8 times in the exacta..........err make that 7 of nine now:>)
Pretty impressive, yet I decide he won't class up and stop when they look him in the eye :shock:

What I learned today at SA:

1) Gotta be loosey 'goosey" (Roke, you owe me $20 for the plug) with hard fast rules.
2) Looks like a real speed bias (going one turn) at SA, that I will follow when they return.
3) If I can see a speed dual developing, ignore it and stick with the fastest 1/2 mile time.
4) Speed, right now may be a more important factor than class.
5) Make sure they favor the confetti track and turf breeding breeding is a plus.
OK, whose next:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:42 am 
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Johnny Eves ran right after Christmas Eve?

Yeah, that's a good one. I'll add it to the TUMB formula.

Class means crap on these new surfaces. Horses are winning Grade 1s only because they like the surface more than others in the race do. What was Student Council before he ran on Poly? He went out West and ate Lava Man for breakfast - is he a classier horse than Lava Man?

I'm convinced that a nice claimer can move straight up the ladder on one of these surfaces only because it really takes to it. But if you put that same horse on another type of artificial, it might not beat its own shadow. It's ridiculous.

It's kind of like how speed was so good at old Keeneland. It didn't mean a speed horse that won was classier than the rest of the field, it just meant that nobody could close on that old surface. But the same speed winner at Keeneland would then run at Churchill and get dusted. The difference with Keeneland was that if you had a closer that couldn't win on that surface, you could ship regionally to another track. If you race in California and you have a horse that hates artificials, where are you going to go as an alternative....Sunland Park?

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:40 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
Johnny Eves ran right after Christmas Eve?

Yeah, that's a good one. I'll add it to the TUMB formula.

Class means crap on these new surfaces. Horses are winning Grade 1s only because they like the surface more than others in the race do. What was Student Council before he ran on Poly? He went out West and ate Lava Man for breakfast - is he a classier horse than Lava Man?

I'm convinced that a nice claimer can move straight up the ladder on one of these surfaces only because it really takes to it. But if you put that same horse on another type of artificial, it might not beat its own shadow. It's ridiculous.

It's kind of like how speed was so good at old Keeneland. It didn't mean a speed horse that won was classier than the rest of the field, it just meant that nobody could close on that old surface. But the same speed winner at Keeneland would then run at Churchill and get dusted. The difference with Keeneland was that if you had a closer that couldn't win on that surface, you could ship regionally to another track. If you race in California and you have a horse that hates artificials, where are you going to go as an alternative....Sunland Park?


Very good point, Johnny and Christmas eve's. Shudda saw that :lol: Gonna go longshot hunting tomorrow at SA, using what I think I know after the first day's races :roll: Hope I don't just end up learning a new set of rules for the redboard room :lol: If anyone is in the mood for some price action at SA in the 1st) Dine at Nine 2nd) Gone Grand 3rd) Nostalgia 4th) Forever Irish 5th) a turf race, just handicapping #5,6,1 6th) Liz's Pirate 7th) Tribal Chief 8th) I'll be in bed by then or working on the HUTI system....no selections:>) Don't take less than 6-1 on any of these except the 7th race Tribal Chief I will take at 5/2 or better......if speed looks bad after first two, just watch the rest:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:06 pm 
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Grade III Winner

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TJ, you are one courageous dude!! My wife and I have tried to handicap all and everyone of the artificial surfaces and still don't have a clue??? Between 2 yr olds and the poly tracks we are batting close to zero. We like to play the pick 4's but have stopped until Oaklawn opens. Only dirt, no turf and no 2yr olds. Granted they are not big payouts but it beats losing.

Please keep the rest of us neophytes informed as to how and why you pick what you do. And anyone else, please add your 2 cents worth. We are lost and for the life of my wife and I we need help!!!!! And now they add a pick 5-super +1--- the last race at SA!! Go figure????

Thanks,
Larrygene


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:38 pm 
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I dont' bet baby races at all (unless I have a unreal gut feeling, i.e war pass) and I like to take time to see how stuff plays out because the game is hard enough. I don't need something like horses growing between races or a new surface to make it harder.

larrygene, we are oging to have to meet up at oaklawn if you go.. i'll be there damn near everyday. I"m thinking aobut even renting a hotel the first week. I love oaklawn because of what you said and they get full fields.

TJ is right about keeneland. Look at none other than Sinster Minster. This is not a grade 1 horse. never was, never will be. but he has a grade 1 win in the bluegrass. I bet bob was licking his chops to get him in that race over that track. to this DaY he still gets live money because of that race. he can't win allowence races now.

I will use the pacific classic as my race to pick apart. I firmly believe, I did so before the race, I did after the race, that Student Counsil was the best horse going into the race. that race had nothing to do with the poly track. I knew lava man had an injury he was still having trouble with, and yout ake out Tiago and what in the hell do you have left?

the reason(s) I picked him were because he was keeping better company than any other horse and doing better than any horse in that company. the hroses he had lost to for the year have all proven to be grade 1 or 2 horses.. legit ones. Brass hat had to break a track record to beat him the previous race going into the classic.

roke asked student council clasiser than lava man.. this year yes he was. I will stand behind that if you actually go bakc and look at the back class each kept you will come ot the same conclusion.

lava man is "lava man". that's what gets people. but beating Monengao and boboman (who got absolutly throttled by lawyer ron in the razorback handicap), beating AP Excellent is quite not the same as hanging around with half ours and magna graduate.. which is what Student Council was doing.



the reason I use that race is that because it's very easy to look back on someting and say whateveryone else is saying, it's hard to question what your actual handicapping skills.

I'll use the Breeders cup Juve Fillies race. I picked smarty deb. everyone after the race told me "man dont' worry about it, it was a bad track, she is better than that".. and I wasn't the only one.. she was bet down from 30 to 1 to 9/2 up to 7 to 1.



however looking bakc on it, that's easy to say.. but looking back on.. indian blessing was a steal at 5 to 2. she is just faster than anyone else in the race. To be honest.. I let my prejuices stop me from cashing a ticket if you want to know the truth. when you watch a replay and start saying "yeah but" something is wrong. i had no real reason to discount her, no horse was fast enough to give her a pace problem, but I did.[quote][/quote]

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:49 pm 
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bdw0617 wrote:
roke asked student council clasiser than lava man.. this year yes he was. I will stand behind that if you actually go bakc and look at the back class each kept you will come ot the same conclusion.

Are you smoking crack?

Screw the synthetics - I can't wait for Gulfstream Park to open! :D

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:15 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
roke asked student council clasiser than lava man.. this year yes he was. I will stand behind that if you actually go bakc and look at the back class each kept you will come ot the same conclusion.

Are you smoking crack?

Screw the synthetics - I can't wait for Gulfstream Park to open! :D

\


NO i'm not. Neither beat a grade 1 winning horse, but SC's non winners were alot better than Lava Man's non winners.

Let me rephrase. if lava man was not lava man and was named I dont' know....Green Dumpling, and had none of the fan fare that lava man, there wouldn't have been as much uproar.

If you are going ot make a case, make it for awesome gem. if it robbed anyone in that race it wa shim. lava man had no shot of winning that race, and to compound that he had an injury. the two best horses in socal right now are Awesome Gem and Tiago (not in that order) and he has faced neither. for god sake's borrego beat him.

I had a theory that I still have.. in the socal boys divsion, handicap that is.. A 100k claimer, a legit one that's on his game is a grade 2 at least horse in socal.

I can't wait for gulfstream to open either. i love this time of year!

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:30 pm 
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larrygene wrote:
TJ, you are one courageous dude!! My wife and I have tried to handicap all and everyone of the artificial surfaces and still don't have a clue??? Between 2 yr olds and the poly tracks we are batting close to zero. We like to play the pick 4's but have stopped until Oaklawn opens. Only dirt, no turf and no 2yr olds. Granted they are not big payouts but it beats losing.

Please keep the rest of us neophytes informed as to how and why you pick what you do. And anyone else, please add your 2 cents worth. We are lost and for the life of my wife and I we need help!!!!! And now they add a pick 5-super +1--- the last race at SA!! Go figure????

Thanks,
Larrygene


Hi Larry,
This is a redboard room. Hopefully it will start to get more play because this is how we learn. On the other hand, if we pick the winners correctly it won't have as much play, that's the scenario I'm hoping for:>) It isn't about how you handicap a race, or which races should be bet and/or passed on--it's looking at a tough to figure winner after the race and say I should have realized this before the race. Wednesday, that SA track was playing lightning fast and favored the true speed of a race. That horse actually had very good credentials yet as a credit to my ignorance I tossed him on class and connections. Now I'm not that well versed in west coast racing and don't get the inside or remember all the players as I do out of NY and Florida. Had I realized this yesterday I would have bet this horse on the merit of his trainer. I didn't realize who he was-he should have been used BECAUSE of his connections instead I tossed him for his trainers low win%. Johnny Eves trainer was also the trainer of Tiznow! So my bad once again. Personally I like to get in on early bias info when a new track surface and /or new track meet starts up. For instance in NY (Aqueduct) you bet your money after checking the thermometer. The colder it gets, the more speed biased the inner track becomes. Handicapping with the index finger is a variation of THUMB which Roke and I have used with success. Wet the index finger, hold it up in the cold air, if after a couple minutes your finger is frozen straight......bet the speed:>) Personally I am looking forward to Gulfstream, I've been watching some nice young horses train at Palm Meadows and may have a release for Saturday at Calder with a young horse (this one is at Gulfstream training) he will be making his second start. Tomorrow at SA is no big deal, it will cost me $10 to see if the speed is holding. It will be fun as I don't think I'll have to look for them in the pack, they should be winging:>) The great thing about handicapping is you never stop learning. It holds true with working with the racehorse as well. If you are paying attention a day won't go by that you don't learn something new. TJ


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:55 pm 
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2 reasons I love handicapping

1. I know when I am winning, definatly someone else is loosing


2. each race is it's own brain teaser. handicapping is the true thinking man's game.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:20 am 
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bdw, you are exactly right when it comes to pari-mutual wagering. You understand it--your $2 against my $2. Its not what horse wins the race, its what horse the public thinks will win the race that sets the odds. So, you are betting against the other persons picks. Its not handicapping horses, but handicapping what horse other people perceive will win. So its my idea of a winner versus your idea of a winner.

My point is I hope you, rok, TJ, and any other savy handicapper will share your reasons why you pick who you pick in a race. It will give us rookies some insight to help us.

Thanks,
Larrygene


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:47 am 
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Very good point, Johnny and Christmas eve's. Shudda saw that :lol: Gonna go longshot hunting tomorrow at SA, using what I think I know after the first day's races :roll: Hope I don't just end up learning a new set of rules for the redboard room :lol: If anyone is in the mood for some price action at SA in the 1st) Dine at Nine 2nd) Gone Grand 3rd) Nostalgia 4th) Forever Irish 5th) a turf race, just handicapping #5,6,1 6th) Liz's Pirate 7th) Tribal Chief 8th) I'll be in bed by then or working on the HUTI system....no selections:>) Don't take less than 6-1 on any of these except the 7th race Tribal Chief I will take at 5/2 or better......if speed looks bad after first two, just watch the rest:>) TJ[/quote]

Scratch Nostalgia from the 3rd. I'm going with the mother of all longshots "How Sweet It Is":>) This one gets a duece even if the first two lose. I firmly believe in betting a little to win a lot:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 4:45 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Very good point, Johnny and Christmas eve's. Shudda saw that :lol: Gonna go longshot hunting tomorrow at SA, using what I think I know after the first day's races :roll: Hope I don't just end up learning a new set of rules for the redboard room :lol: If anyone is in the mood for some price action at SA in the 1st) Dine at Nine 2nd) Gone Grand 3rd) Nostalgia 4th) Forever Irish 5th) a turf race, just handicapping #5,6,1 6th) Liz's Pirate 7th) Tribal Chief 8th) I'll be in bed by then or working on the HUTI system....no selections:>) Don't take less than 6-1 on any of these except the 7th race Tribal Chief I will take at 5/2 or better......if speed looks bad after first two, just watch the rest:>) TJ


Scratch Nostalgia from the 3rd. I'm going with the mother of all longshots "How Sweet It Is":>) This one gets a duece even if the first two lose. I firmly believe in betting a little to win a lot:>) TJ[/quote]

Well, the track took 180 degree turn from speed to almost fair or slightly closer biased today. Had to pass the first, to short a price, tried the 2nd and thought this isn't the same speed favoring track. I bet the mother of all longshots win and place in the 3rd. Turned a neat profit (Sweet paid $15 in the middle) and bet 1/2 of the profit on Tribal Chief, who knows might be a good day yet:>). I headed for the exit right after "How Sweet it Is" ran second......tomorrow is another day. TJ


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 11:58 pm 
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Man oh Man, the La Brea Stakes really lightened my wallet today.

I was all over Ashley's Kitty in the race. I thought I was getting a gift from God when she went off at 5-1. (Actually almost 6-1).

I was a bit concerned when she was well back at the quarter and half, but still counted on her putting in a strong run the final 1/8. She did make a mild move, but when I saw her throw her head a few times, I knew it was time to tear up a bunch of win and place tickets. (Yeah I know I'm an old fashioned better. Mostly W/P for me and some pick 3's and exactas)

I never would have thought that Dearest Trickski would be the winner. Hell, back in April she was claimed for 10k at Lone Star! Granted she did beat older mares in a conditioned allowance last out, and beat older mares 2 back at BM in an Optional Claimer. Apparently betters thought better of her than I did as she went of at 4.4-1

As a side note, as horse to watch is Rate of Exchange. Watch the replay where she got carried WAY wide in the turn, checked, but recovered nicely to actually bet her nose briefly in front before getting run down by the six horse. Really impressive considering it was her career bow.

Anways, if anyone has some thoughts on the La Brea, I sure would like to hear them.

All the best Shergar


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:09 am 
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The TUMB System liked Dearest Trickski, but I kept seeing that line for $32,500 on her form and it turned me off. I forgot that if a horse takes to the artificials, it can move up dramatically.

Fortunately, the new and improved TUMB System takes these things into account. Order now and we'll even throw in a free thimble!

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:19 am 
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Allowance Winner

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Shergar GMTA - I just mentioned dissecting this race over in the racing thread... I liked Dearest Tricksi, if for no other reason than she looked competitive all the way up the racing ladder, and the rest of the field left me underwhelmed (a more recent race on Glorfied's resume would've had me betting her, looks like the connections are doing alright running third).

Not to many times you see a horse now 12 starts 8 wins and 2 places.

As an aside I teased my trainer at times this year when she lots a horse and they jump up a level or two and win - and we were winless with my filly.... she didn't appreciate me pointing out the stakes entry deadlines after an 8th place finish in a NW2L bottoms condition ... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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