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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:25 am 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
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Location: Idaho
Rokeby Forever wrote:
The TUMB System liked Dearest Trickski, but I kept seeing that line for $32,500 on her form and it turned me off. I forgot that if a horse takes to the artificials, it can move up dramatically.

Fortunately, the new and improved TUMB System takes these things into account. Order now and we'll even throw in a free thimble!


Dearest Trickski had proven she liked the artificials. All but two of the horses in the race had raced on the artificials, with varying degrees of success.

I might need that thimble, as I think I can hold all my coin in it. :(

Shergar


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:39 am 
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I'm looking at her PP's.. she ran for 10k on april 29th of this year. Cody Autrey claimed her and the rest was history as they say.

we have had 4 days at santa anita.. I'm scared to make a bet there. what are you guys noticing?

I mean in some sense some of the horses that are winning are figuring but if I like a horse that comes off the pace i'm fucked.

I'm going to wait until after tomorrow and comb though the results and see if it's just playing normal but faster or is there a real bias.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 12:44 am 
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Not to nit-pic but only three days of racing thus far at SA.

Speaking of that, why didn't SA and GGF run on Thursday?

All the best, Shergar


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:38 am 
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Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maybe there isn't a GR1 winner in there now, but there will be right after they run the race. Now if you posted this in the handicapping forum I would have given you the winner, but that stuff doesn't go in this section:>) TJ


Hi All,
All right, the Redboard Room is starting to get some play. The above post was from BDW's post on the racing forum. I had a horse in the LaBrea that I liked a lot and was confident in being of graded caliber..........but no one asked and I didn't crack....that was Unspoken Word.
Unspoken Word was the horse I really liked and followed her from NY to Cali. Sold privately by Paul Pompa Jr. and under new management she was training better than I ever saw her train--it was obvious she loved the synthetic. The track played slightly better to speed today, although not as totally speed biased as opening day. If any of you read my post about Johnny Eves, these two race winners Johnny Eves and Dearest Trickster had almost identical form. Highest last race beyer in the field (by far), liked the synthetic, liked the grass (as did the 2nd place horse), and ran a huge race last time out (22.1, 44.2, 1:08, 1:14.2) at Hollywood at the same distance as Johnny's winning race prior to both horses winning their first GR 1's, it was dejavue:>) Momma didn't raise no fool so the one two picks for me were a no brainer:>). The similarities were amazing, right down to both horses running at the same 7 furlong distance in their stakes debt. What I learned previously I didn't forget, speed will prevail over class at SA. So keeping that in mind Dearest Trick was clearly the horse to beat. Knowing Unspoken Word was, in my opinion a graded quality filly, I just happened to pull one outta the hat after I pulled out the THUMB:>)
Read the first post in this thread, it was a blueprint for picking this winner. This is what the redboard room is all about, seeing mistakes you made before and hopefully not making them again. This was the quickest I've ever seen such an identical scenario play out, but I learned from my previous mistake and turned that into the winning exacta. Now after this day at SA, what did I learn:
Only one thing, at 7 furlongs the speed is a very strong factor, possibly moreso than 6f.........which is unusal and will be of value when handicapping a 7f race. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:50 pm 
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Grade III Winner

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Location: Oklahoma City, OK
You guys are so much better than me at handcapping, please give out your tips and picks even if its after the race. Thanks TJ for the insight of 7f vs 6f tip pertaining to speed at SA. I appreciate it very much.

Larrygene


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:01 pm 
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larrygene wrote:
You guys are so much better than me at handcapping, please give out your tips and picks even if its after the race. Thanks TJ for the insight of 7f vs 6f tip pertaining to speed at SA. I appreciate it very much.

Larrygene


Hi Larry,
Remember things do change from day to day. I have seen two GR1 races at 7F where the speed was important to the outcome of the race. Not necessarily so with claiming races. Each race still remains a puzzle, but if you are undecided between two horses take the one that figures to be closest to the pace:>)


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:10 pm 
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My puzzle is two words----artifical surface!!!! :shock: :?
For the life of me I cannot translate PP's into present results.


Last edited by larrygene on Mon Jan 07, 2008 2:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:34 pm 
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larrygene wrote:
My puzzle is two words----articical surface!!!! :shock: :?
For the life of me I cannot translate PP's into present results.

Then the TUMB, HUTI, and TUTI Systems are for you! Between a few shots of 86 proof and a good wiggle, you'll be picking winners like berries off a bush. These systems are fast becoming the accepted industry standards!

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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:39 pm 
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You might be right Rok, damn, if I am to the point of giving them a try!! Is there a certain technique you use or is it close one eye and PICK?? :wink:

Larrygene


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:50 pm 
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That's an excellent question, Larrygene.

For me, the TUMB System works best by stickin' my thumb up there and reading off the names...whatever name "feels just right" is my pick.

The HUTI System works best by reading a Racing Form when you're so drunk that Rosie O'Donnell starts to look good - Shergar has it down to a science.

TJ can go into more detail about the applications of the TUTI System.

When used together, these powerful handicapping tools can't be beat.

_________________
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:16 pm 
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larrygene wrote:
You might be right Rok, damn, if I am to the point of giving them a try!! Is there a certain technique you use or is it close one eye and PICK?? :wink:

Larrygene


Larry:

HUTI is a great tool in getting the eyes closed. :D

Shergar


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2008 11:50 pm 
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Hi to all my fellow degenerate handicappers:

Thought a re-cap on the Hutcheson would be a good way to bump this thread up.

TJ had a $700+ trifecta nailed on this race.

If not too much trouble, I would like to hear again from TJ how he came to pick the top three.

My top pick, Grand Minstrel scratched and I went with Coal Play as my top pick. Once he scratched, was pretty much at a loss as who to pick.

I did settle on Coal Play, but wasn't at all comfy with him. I thought since he had wired a field at two turns, he could do the same at a 7f one turn.

I know that 7f speed is different thatn 8+f speed, but thought the jock/trainer angle would be of benefit. (FWIW)

Of course my thougths were way off.

Some other thoughts I have is how much did the sloppy/sealed track have to do with how the race unfolded?

All the best,
Shergar


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 7:51 am 
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Shergar wrote:
Hi to all my fellow degenerate handicappers:

Thought a re-cap on the Hutcheson would be a good way to bump this thread up.

TJ had a $700+ trifecta nailed on this race.

If not too much trouble, I would like to hear again from TJ how he came to pick the top three.

My top pick, Grand Minstrel scratched and I went with Coal Play as my top pick. Once he scratched, was pretty much at a loss as who to pick.

I did settle on Coal Play, but wasn't at all comfy with him. I thought since he had wired a field at two turns, he could do the same at a 7f one turn.

I know that 7f speed is different thatn 8+f speed, but thought the jock/trainer angle would be of benefit. (FWIW)

Of course my thougths were way off.

Some other thoughts I have is how much did the sloppy/sealed track have to do with how the race unfolded?

All the best,
Shergar


Hi HUTI,
There isn't a whole lot more I can say that I didn't say in the comments I made when I made the selections. The 2nd horse was my choice in the race because I knew the maiden would take the lead and I wanted a horse that would attend the pace closely as I expected that horse to assume a decent lead when Tiz stopped. He was also a horse I thought would benefit from 7 furlongs, and in my opinion, 7F is as far as he wants to go and his sprint races were very good. The winner, as I said beat Wise Answer at 7f and that horse was the top 2YO on the Calder circuit. Halo Najib was a no brainer and I was actually surprised at his poor performance , which redboard room wise I attribute to the fact he was rank last time and Romans thought he got him to relax now....well in my opinion he relaxed to much. Figure wise these horses were high on my numbers, which is an adjusted beyer and pace figure of my own devise. TUTI, (TJ)


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