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 Post subject: good and bad bets
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:59 pm 
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I wanted to talk about something that I dont' think alot of poeple, well let me rephrase, something that doens't really get talked about.

The difference between a good or bad bet.

One of the most important things I have come to learn that the result is not as important as how I came to my handicapping conclusion.

A good bet to me is not necessary a winning bet.

You can make a very good bet and loose.

I think the mistake some people make si that they are shooting for the 100% conversion rate on wagers and wins, so when they loose, they automatically assume someting is wrong in their handicapping, go back and use hindsight to see how they should have had the other horse.

I'll use this year's Traver's as an example.

anyone who was here remembers WWIII broke out on this forum because a couple of people liked sightseeing. (cough me and roke cough)

My rationale for that bet was that Street Sense was not the same horse outside of churchill as he was at churchill and that Sightseeing had been gnning for the Travers since the beginning of the year.

while I thougth that Street sense WAS the better horse in all honesty, he was at or below even money hwereas sightseeing was at about 8 to 1.

Yes Street Sense won.. there is no need to go back and rehandicap the race becuse i Knew he had a good chance of winning. there was no thing flawed in my handicapping, it was just one of the times I didn't win.

another example, and you don't have to agree with this, this is just how I felt. The Belmont stakes this year. IMHO there were only 4 horses that could win it. Rags to Riches, Curlin, Tiago and I'mawildandcrazyguy. If you remember at that time, I'mawildandcrazyguy had a month off since the derby and only finished like a length back of curlin int he kentucky derby. he was a ploodder that would love the extra distance.

let me put this in persepctive. He finished 1 length behind the 2 to 1 fav in his last race, but was 19 to 1, with more time off and fresher.

I had every reason to really like i'mawildandcrazyguy, and I was to scared to pull the trigger. I bet a Rags to Riches curlin exacta box. yes, I won some money, but to this day I have a sour taste in m y mouth becuase that wasn't the correct bet. iMHO i'mawildandcrazyguy was the right bet. I think if they would have ran the races 10 times he'd win 2-3 of them, with more pace at his aid, and at 19 to 1 that's an overlay of epicness. if he would have came in i'd have been sick.



so when I go back and look at races, I don't look and see should I have had the winner, I go back and see was my handicapping flawed or not and if I had to do it again would I come up with the same decsion or not.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:14 pm 
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bdw0617
You are one of the most knowledgable people here, you have knowledge of every aspect of the industry, why dont you have a horse yet? or part of one?


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:12 pm 
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a couple of reasons


1. personal issues... i'm moving to the west coast and my grandmother is not in the best of health.. not the right time right now


and i'm still learing


I also have 2 horse racing related websites I want to get up first I am workign on.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 8:16 pm 
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Thats cool, you seem to know your stuff.. goodluck!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:27 pm 
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I see that the sarcasm went by, totally unnoticed. Some people are so full of themselves, they believe their own stuff as it was the gospel.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:40 pm 
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Back to the subject, I think the difference between a good bet and a bad bet is value. A bad bet might be betting on a trainer that never wins a race when he's got a horse running that's a short price, even if the horse looks OK on paper. If that kind of trainer ever wins a race, why take a short price, even if the horse does win?

When you figure that a horse should be 3:1 and it goes off 6:1, that's usually a good bet. It might not win, but you got value for your money. Same thing if you notice a strong track bias. Maybe a horse on paper always poops out in the stretch, but if it's the lone speed one day on a speed favoring track, why not take a shot with it, especially if it's a nice price? The horse might poop out again, but I think that's a case where you got value for your bet.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 9:50 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
Back to the subject, I think the difference between a good bet and a bad bet is value. A bad bet might be betting on a trainer that never wins a race when he's got a horse running that's a short price, even if the horse looks OK on paper. If that kind of trainer ever wins a race, why take a short price, even if the horse does win?

When you figure that a horse should be 3:1 and it goes off 6:1, that's usually a good bet. It might not win, but you got value for your money. Same thing if you notice a strong track bias. Maybe a horse on paper always poops out in the stretch, but if it's the lone speed one day on a speed favoring track, why not take a shot with it, especially if it's a nice price? The horse might poop out again, but I think that's a case where you got value for your bet.



ah.. good point roke.

I remembr the hollywood park huge carryover day.. the 10.7 million dollar pick 6

In the 2nd leg of the pick 6 I had my nose on a 10 to 1 shot. I liked him so much I singled him. he was a nocal shipper that just demolished the field up there, and was actually somewhat dropping in class. horses name was icanmakeitrain. remember it like it was yesterday.

There were 2 other horses that had legit chances.. but for sakes of pick 6 and my win bet I had on the horses nose.. I singled. the other two horses where I thought Tony Montana and pressthepass.

now.. I tossed tony montana.. he came in 2nd too many times for my liking. I don't like bridesmades.

but pressthepace was cleary the fastest horse in the race. But in 11 races he never could hold his speed. NEVEr. I don't care if you gave him a 30 length lead. so I said, well if he didn't hold his lead then, why change now. Plus my horse is better tan he is (and he was)

what i failed to realize.... 105 degree day + cushion track = ice rank

I should have saw it the first two races of the day. Speed that had no chance in hell was holding on. the first leg of hte pick 6 a 25 to 1 shot that had no chance in hell lost by a nose on the lead.

My horse runs his ass off and just can't catch the lone speed.

with that said... that is an interesting question. did I make a BAD bet?

even without considering the track I say no. My horse was 11 to 1 and lost by a length, and even iwth the track, my known veriable is that pressthepace doesn't like holding leads. for me to take 4 to 1 (pressthepace) on a horse that has showne he doesn't like holding leads is a bad bet.

although I lost, it was a very good bet. I'd make it again.

it's definatly about value and what you preceive value and what is not value.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:18 pm 
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Georgerz wrote:
I see that the sarcasm went by, totally unnoticed. Some people are so full of themselves, they believe their own stuff as it was the gospel.

I hope you werent refering to me? I think bdw and roke are both very knowledgable when it comes to the subject of horse racing


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:27 pm 
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Easy, fellas. This forum is for fun.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 6:49 am 
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:08 pm
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LOL, I think ALL my bets are good bets! Of course, I don't do it for a living, just the weekly fun. I love the exotics, so naturally my win percentage will be down a bit, but the payouts can be sweet if you're willing to take risks. I actually enjoy the races more when I don't have moeny on the line, then it's just about the horses, and I enjoy EVERY horse, not just mine.
But I'll tell you, the truely BAD bets I've made have come from following "inside tips" from the backside--you feel like you have inside information, and if you don't bet it, you'll feel like an idiot, but 9 times out of 10 they never pan out.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:33 pm 
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Joined: Wed Dec 26, 2007 2:04 pm
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bdw0617 wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
Back to the subject, I think the difference between a good bet and a bad bet is value. A bad bet might be betting on a trainer that never wins a race when he's got a horse running that's a short price, even if the horse looks OK on paper. If that kind of trainer ever wins a race, why take a short price, even if the horse does win?

When you figure that a horse should be 3:1 and it goes off 6:1, that's usually a good bet. It might not win, but you got value for your money. Same thing if you notice a strong track bias. Maybe a horse on paper always poops out in the stretch, but if it's the lone speed one day on a speed favoring track, why not take a shot with it, especially if it's a nice price? The horse might poop out again, but I think that's a case where you got value for your bet.



ah.. good point roke.

I remembr the hollywood park huge carryover day.. the 10.7 million dollar pick 6

In the 2nd leg of the pick 6 I had my nose on a 10 to 1 shot. I liked him so much I singled him. he was a nocal shipper that just demolished the field up there, and was actually somewhat dropping in class. horses name was icanmakeitrain. remember it like it was yesterday.

There were 2 other horses that had legit chances.. but for sakes of pick 6 and my win bet I had on the horses nose.. I singled. the other two horses where I thought Tony Montana and pressthepass.

now.. I tossed tony montana.. he came in 2nd too many times for my liking. I don't like bridesmades.

but pressthepace was cleary the fastest horse in the race. But in 11 races he never could hold his speed. NEVEr. I don't care if you gave him a 30 length lead. so I said, well if he didn't hold his lead then, why change now. Plus my horse is better tan he is (and he was)

what i failed to realize.... 105 degree day + cushion track = ice rank

I should have saw it the first two races of the day. Speed that had no chance in hell was holding on. the first leg of hte pick 6 a 25 to 1 shot that had no chance in hell lost by a nose on the lead.

My horse runs his ass off and just can't catch the lone speed.

with that said... that is an interesting question. did I make a BAD bet?

even without considering the track I say no. My horse was 11 to 1 and lost by a length, and even iwth the track, my known veriable is that pressthepace doesn't like holding leads. for me to take 4 to 1 (pressthepace) on a horse that has showne he doesn't like holding leads is a bad bet.

although I lost, it was a very good bet. I'd make it again.

it's definatly about value and what you preceive value and what is not value.



I would imagine you ended up hitting 5 of 6 on this bet still? Or were you just using that horse as making a point?
I myself don't play pick 6's. With all the luck in the world I couldn't hit one, and I would much rather play my $8 pick 3 bets ten times in a day, than playing one $80 or so pick 6 ticket that I wouldn't have any realistic shot of hitting.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:27 pm 
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ZZtoppers thats the story of my life.... my partner (we own a filly together, raced one previous) will share the "inside edge" on the bullrings at Vancouver or Edmonton, and over the course of all those inside tips - I think 80% don't even hit the board, maybe 20% will make it next race (I'd say because of Jockey error/change, track conditions, and or winner has moved out of the condition etc.), but then there are some that when they hit (i.e. $81 win, N2L who loved slop but had been running on fast tracks the previous two years - he looked like Rags to Riches in the belmont in the replay, I checked Equibase the next day and nearly fell over from the payout) they make up for it.

But what gets me is it never fails if I forget to bet that hot tip ALLWAYS pays :lol:

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:16 pm 
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ponytime wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
Rokeby Forever wrote:
Back to the subject, I think the difference between a good bet and a bad bet is value. A bad bet might be betting on a trainer that never wins a race when he's got a horse running that's a short price, even if the horse looks OK on paper. If that kind of trainer ever wins a race, why take a short price, even if the horse does win?

When you figure that a horse should be 3:1 and it goes off 6:1, that's usually a good bet. It might not win, but you got value for your money. Same thing if you notice a strong track bias. Maybe a horse on paper always poops out in the stretch, but if it's the lone speed one day on a speed favoring track, why not take a shot with it, especially if it's a nice price? The horse might poop out again, but I think that's a case where you got value for your bet.



ah.. good point roke.

I remembr the hollywood park huge carryover day.. the 10.7 million dollar pick 6

In the 2nd leg of the pick 6 I had my nose on a 10 to 1 shot. I liked him so much I singled him. he was a nocal shipper that just demolished the field up there, and was actually somewhat dropping in class. horses name was icanmakeitrain. remember it like it was yesterday.

There were 2 other horses that had legit chances.. but for sakes of pick 6 and my win bet I had on the horses nose.. I singled. the other two horses where I thought Tony Montana and pressthepass.

now.. I tossed tony montana.. he came in 2nd too many times for my liking. I don't like bridesmades.

but pressthepace was cleary the fastest horse in the race. But in 11 races he never could hold his speed. NEVEr. I don't care if you gave him a 30 length lead. so I said, well if he didn't hold his lead then, why change now. Plus my horse is better tan he is (and he was)

what i failed to realize.... 105 degree day + cushion track = ice rank

I should have saw it the first two races of the day. Speed that had no chance in hell was holding on. the first leg of hte pick 6 a 25 to 1 shot that had no chance in hell lost by a nose on the lead.

My horse runs his ass off and just can't catch the lone speed.

with that said... that is an interesting question. did I make a BAD bet?

even without considering the track I say no. My horse was 11 to 1 and lost by a length, and even iwth the track, my known veriable is that pressthepace doesn't like holding leads. for me to take 4 to 1 (pressthepace) on a horse that has showne he doesn't like holding leads is a bad bet.

although I lost, it was a very good bet. I'd make it again.

it's definatly about value and what you preceive value and what is not value.



I would imagine you ended up hitting 5 of 6 on this bet still? Or were you just using that horse as making a point?
I myself don't play pick 6's. With all the luck in the world I couldn't hit one, and I would much rather play my $8 pick 3 bets ten times in a day, than playing one $80 or so pick 6 ticket that I wouldn't have any realistic shot of hitting.


god no I didn't hit that pick 6.. I didnt' get 5 out of 6.. I think I hit 3 or so. I lost the feature race, I lost the first race and i think I lost the last. I rmember the feature I singled glorified, coming off a very impressive allowence win.. she just couldn't get it done lost by a head. one of thoose days.

I came closer to hitting the day before... I was 3 of 3 going into the 4th leg and I actually had a 73 to 1 shot on my ticket that hit the 3rd leg. i was craping bricks I was so nervous. 4th race comes up, my horse who I had actualy SINGLED, 14 to 1 i think, but I couldn't see him loosing, was making his winning move down the stretch and then starts playing ping pong with the two horses on the sides of him, not even an inquiry... then the next race the horses I picked just didn't win. I ended up getting 3 out of 6... hell if I would have won one more race I wuld have at leat broke even because it was a carryover.

I remebmer watching one pick 6, there was 1 guy with an 850k ticket in his hand and he had the 4 horse singled, it was all on tVG.. they are coming down the strech, the 4 horse is in the lead. The 13 horse comes and litearly... knocks him about 4 paths sideways... well not knocks him but makes him go a diffrent way.. he could not have went straight and not bump the 13 hoorse... and looses by no more than a half length.

just so happens the 13 was a carryover horse. That was the quickest Offical race in the history of horse racing. If I was that guy holding the 850k ticket I would have went postal. 5.5k is not 850k.

I normally don't play pick 6's. there has to be some massive money at hand for me to dive intoe one.

I'm about maxing my potental.. if I am handicapping a card and I like 3 horses alot in the pick 6 sequence.. I will say shoot... I can throw together 3 other races and take a stab.. might be a 20 dollar ticket.
If there is some money at hand I will get ot play.

I have pretty darn good (resonable) success with pick 6's.. I think in all i've hit 3.. the hightest being a couple of grand... but these pick 6 pools in socal are just unreal

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