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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2007 10:17 pm 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
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Location: Los Angeles, CA
Oh man I want to cry when I talk about mine.


The 2005 Kentucky Derby. It was the first time I actually really sat down and handicapped the kentucky derby.

I knew speed would fail. too many speedballs in the race that could not or didn't like to be rated.

I said to myself, the race is going to come down to these horses... Afleet Alex, Closing Arguement, don't get mad, Giacomo, Buzzard's Bay and Wilko.. all horses that sit off the pace.

I said I'm going to get crazy and play a superfecta. why the hell not.. huge pools, 20 horse field, I'm not going to hit but what the hell.

Using my closing theory, that all late closers would be up in the top by the end of the race... here was my superfecta:

1st: Don't get mad, closing arguement, wilko, giacomo, afleet alex
2nd: Afleet Alex, don't get mad, closing arguement
3rd: closing arguement, giacomo, dont' get mad, wilko
4th: closing arguement, giacomo, don't get mad, wilko

I did not see a senerio where alfeet alex was worst than 2nd place.



Embarassed


for thoose of you who don't know, the order of finish was

giacomo
closing arguement
afleet alex
dont' get mad

1 dollar ticket paid over 800 thousand dollars. to this day I am still sick about this race. it took me about a week for me to accecpt the fact that I did not win it. I was actually kinda tramatized. I want to cry whenever I here about the 05 derby. just boxing the damn 4 horses i'd be set.

sickening

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:28 pm 
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Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:53 pm
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Location: Louisville, KY
I was at Churchill several years ago, quite new to betting. It was a two year old maiden race, completely full field (14 horses). I was trying to do visual picks, in the paddock. I nailed the first two horses, both VERY long (80-1,12-1) and I had selected the 12 horse for third. Somehow, at the window, I ended up with a ticket with 13 in third, instead of 12. The race went off before I could get the ticket changed, and it came in like that and paid over $39K. We were very down, and then I remembered I had also boxed the exacta, which paid, I believe, $1228.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:56 pm 
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Leading Sire
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Location: New York City
I didn't bet on Toccet the first race I saw him in in fall of 2002 (hence my handle :) )
I liked him but he never stopped jogging in place in the paddock, rearing up to tear leaves from the trees, playing playing playing. So I bet against him; figuring he was wasting energy, and of course he won easily.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 12:37 pm 
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looking at the Results $8.20 to win on In Summation in Santa Anita yesterday... :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:25 pm 
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Host paying $13.80 on the win... %$#@ sakes.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 3:14 pm 
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My own BYRMPOTD pick for the Hutchison... :shock: :roll: :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:17 am 
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
Posts: 876
Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
bdw--interesting story and an 800k payout for a dollar is very nice....
I say your story is interesting because I had a similar experience in the 2002 derby and to this day I often think how I couldn't/didn't hit this race.

I too agree that you don't win the derby wire to wire and incredibly that year----- a horse I loved----War Emblem---- did the impossible. He won the derby wire to wire.

My betting strategy----key War emblem 2nd,3rd and 4th and box Proud Citizen, Perfect Drift, Medaglia d'Ora and Request for Parole in the 1st through fourth positions in the superfecta.

My horses came in almost exactly as I had handicapped but nobody caught the runaway winner War Emblem. The Super paid 91k and change for a dollar.

I had played 2 dollar superfectas and would have cashed almost 184k for roughly a $200 bet. I am still sick to this day when I think about it. I saved myself $48 dollars by not wheeling War Emblem in 1st (because---even as you said----you don't win the derby wire to wire). Sometimes my own handicapping skills (which are pretty decent) get in the way of the big score. One of the lessons you have to learn is to think objectively when making bets and to not put War Emblem on the top was just a bad betting decision. If I loved him for 2nd, third and fourth, how could I not use him in first------my desire to save 48 dollars cost me a heck of a lot more. This is the type of thing that constantly gets me in my bettnig decisions... my handicapping skills get in my way.....Great idea for a tthread---one that I totally relate too. Thanks for sharing your experience. I can't even imagine how I would have felt if the pay out was 800k for a dollar.

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