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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 7:31 pm 
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1. Somethinaboutlaura (CA), 6, Michael Baze
2. Placid Lake (FL), 6, David Flores
3. Snow Cone (FL), 4, Eddie Castro
4. Lady Tropicana (FL), 5, Alex Solis
5. Gentle Charmer (CA), 6, Kyle Kaenel
6. Nashoba's Key (CA), 5, Joseph Talamo
7. Quite a Bride (FL), 5, Garrett Gomez
8. Bai and Bai (CA), 5, Victor Espinoza



god damnit retire somethinaboutlaura already!!


there is no way in hell i'm betting against nashoba's key

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 10:37 pm 
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Nashoba's Key for me too.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 1:42 pm 
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Maiden Special Weight

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She won't be favored, and probably won't win but I can't go against my all-time favorite filly, Bai and Bai. My good friend bought her for $3200 at Pleasanton in 2004 and I was at about every race she ran until he sold her to the Lewis' last year. She is as tough and honest a racehorse as they come, but was also one of the sweetest fillies in the barn. I think she's best at 1 1/16 on dirt (conventional or synthetic) and is clearly a notch or so below Nashoba's Key, but I'm sure she'll be running all out as they turn for home amongst the leaders.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 9:25 pm 
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If nashoba's key gets scratched she'd be at the top of my list.. i like bai and bai

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 5:18 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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bdw

Too bad there was no way in hell you would bet against Nash' Key.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2008 7:14 pm 
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no it's not. you ovboiusly have not read anything I posted. you aren't going to make a living betting agaisnt nashoba's key. just so happens she lost.


just because i said I am not going to bet against nashoba's key doesn't mean I placed a wager on her. you only make a bet when it's financially sound ot make one for the long run. you take nashoba's key, who no one will argue with you even now is the best horse in the race, against hte field and give her sub even odds.... that's not a playable race at least in my eyes. I will wait until one that is playable


BTW the horses didn't beat Nashoba's key, the turf did.. she hates soft turf (see breeders cup f&M Turf) and it's been raining all week.. still didn't it was worth wagering. should have been a scratch

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 10:43 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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bdw

I never said you bet her. You said you wouldn't bet against her, now the horse didn't beat her the footing did, maybe you should be training her.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 8:59 pm 
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hi bdw0617

bdw0617 wrote:
you take nashoba's key, who no one will argue with you even now is the best horse in the race, against hte field and give her sub even odds.

I would suggest that if you had been more diligent with your homework (if you will), you might have looked beyond Quite a Bride's 4 3/4 Length romp (which arguably it was) when she raced (and won) just a few weeks ago at Gulfstream Park (in the South Beach S)...and recognized that Mott and Team QAB, were quite confident that QAB was rounding into exceptional form...and capable of knocking-off the SM F&M Turf, regardless who showed up. Their evaluation of QAB (and that of many, many, many handicappers) was dead-on correct...yours apparently wasn't.

Continuing that thought...QAB looked VERY sharp (as I indicated) when she ran (and won impressively) several weeks ago. As for Nashoba's Key...it had been approx 90 days (hmmm) since she last ran (on Oct 27/2007)...finishing 4th (beaten 2 lengths) in the BC FM Turf (on Soft turf).

bdw0617 wrote:
BTW the horses didn't beat Nashoba's key, the turf did..she hates soft turf (see breeders cup f&M Turf) and it's been raining all week.. still didn't it was worth wagering. should have been a scratch

Maybe Nashoba's Key hates soft turf (your words)...but the FACT is, the turf (for the SM F&M Turf) was NOT soft. It was listed as Good (NOT Soft), and was (by all accounts that I've heard/read) barely a tad less than Firm.

Had it been Firm (and not Good)...I'm not so sure that QAB (who carried 122 pounds, as did NK and all others in the field of 8 ) wouldn't have won by even a wider margin than the 1 1/4 Lengths that she did (over 2nd place finisher Nashoba's Key). The results speak for themselves, and I've heard NO excuse/s from the NK camp.

Bottom-line...both QAB and NK are wonderful racemares.

The question now might be...will either or both race throughout 2008...or will one or both be retired to the breeding shed?

Whatever...I wish them (and their connections) all the best.

Respectfully


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:22 pm 
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FOS wrote:
hi bdw0617

bdw0617 wrote:
you take nashoba's key, who no one will argue with you even now is the best horse in the race, against hte field and give her sub even odds.

I would suggest that if you had been more diligent with your homework (if you will), you might have looked beyond Quite a Bride's 4 3/4 Length romp (which arguably it was) when she raced (and won) just a few weeks ago at Gulfstream Park (in the South Beach S)...and recognized that Mott and Team QAB, were quite confident that QAB was rounding into exceptional form...and capable of knocking-off the SM F&M Turf, regardless who showed up. Their evaluation of QAB (and that of many, many, many handicappers) was dead-on correct...yours apparently wasn't.

Continuing that thought...QAB looked VERY sharp (as I indicated) when she ran (and won impressively) several weeks ago. As for Nashoba's Key...it had been approx 90 days (hmmm) since she last ran (on Oct 27/2007)...finishing 4th (beaten 2 lengths) in the BC FM Turf (on Soft turf).

bdw0617 wrote:
BTW the horses didn't beat Nashoba's key, the turf did..she hates soft turf (see breeders cup f&M Turf) and it's been raining all week.. still didn't it was worth wagering. should have been a scratch

Maybe Nashoba's Key hates soft turf (your words)...but the FACT is, the turf (for the SM F&M Turf) was NOT soft. It was listed as Good (NOT Soft), and was (by all accounts that I've heard/read) barely a tad less than Firm.

Had it been Firm (and not Good)...I'm not so sure that QAB (who carried 122 pounds, as did NK and all others in the field of 8 ) wouldn't have won by even a wider margin than the 1 1/4 Lengths that she did (over 2nd place finisher Nashoba's Key). The results speak for themselves, and I've heard NO excuse/s from the NK camp.

Bottom-line...both QAB and NK are wonderful racemares.

The question now might be...will either or both race throughout 2008...or will one or both be retired to the breeding shed?

Whatever...I wish them (and their connections) all the best.

Respectfully


Hey!


1.. nah.. I broke that race down.. if anyone thought nashoba wasn't the best horse moer power to them. I didn't.

How can I put this... there is a value you place, or I place on each horse.. I can concoct a senerio where any horse will win and if the odds are right I would pull the trigger.. however the odds are 99.9% never right. I saw a situtation in the derby where storm in may could win but he didn't go off at 150 to 1.


quite a bride could win, but I didn't feel comfortable betting against nashoba's key, and for that grand risk I get a grand 3 to 1.. nah. if she had been closer to 7 to 1 maybe. make that bet 10 times I think quite a bride wins 3 times out of 10, nashboba's key takes the other 7.. so for betting 20 dollars I would actually LOSE a dollar and 50 cents on 2 dollar wagers... while that's great for someone who comes to the track and is having fun I do things for long term profit and there is none in betting quite a bride at 3 to 1 against nashboba's key in my eyes

I hope that helps explain my thought process.


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Maybe Nashoba's Key hates soft turf (your words)...but the FACT is, the turf (for the SM F&M Turf) was NOT soft. It was listed as Good (NOT Soft), and was (by all accounts that I've heard/read) barely a tad less than Firm.


i'll give you that one... and hell i'm not in her barn I don't know for sure, but that was my reasoning, and why I wasn't going all out on nashobas key. her worst race came on a not firm track and this is a not firm track. it's not like she got embarassed.. she ran a good race.. maybe she needed a race... hell maybe she just is not as good as quite a bride.. wouldn't suprise me.. I thought she was overrated last year.. never beat anyone on turf and she was beating tried and true dirt horses on polytrack.. hystericalady would have cleaned her clock on a dirt track.


That was the reason for the way I played the ticket the way I did..

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:25 pm 
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I'm not quite sure why Nashoba's Key is racing this early in the year. The BC is in her backyard and there's a long year ahead.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 9:30 pm 
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To me NK ran into a filly who was in better form, which is perfectly understandable. I think the effect of the off turf was minimal. You have to start a campaign somewhere and she got an ungraded race worth $500k. She will be pretty damn tough from here on out.

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