Beyer Speed Figures - can they be utilized as a tool

[Rokeby Forever]

I am a big believer in bounces off of big efforts, especially when you use the guidelines I mentioned above---it is all about the level of effort you can expect today from a given animal vs the level of efforts you can expect from other horses he will be competing against in todays race.

Hi BCassidy,

You've made some valid points that I think all of us would agree with (at least in part), but here's a thought or two on bounces and I wonder if you agree.

I, too, believe in them, especially with cheap stock. However, I've noticed more and more over the last 5 years how many horses suddenly pop up with a huge effort and then run back to it. I can think of two reasons, and maybe you'll agree, and maybe you won't.

As vet advancements and medications (both legal and illegal) have been used in increasing proportions, I think the "bounce" factor has decreased. Horses that feel good, for whatever reason, and continue to feel good, won't bounce, or so I tend to think. I think the example of A One Rocket might be extreme, but I think it's a more often occurrence than in the past.

Also, horses used to run back much faster than they do now. When the average claimer ran 15-20 times a year, there was less recovery time from a big effort. Now, even claimers make only 12 or so starts a year, so horses are given more time between races. I think that extra time helps a horse to bounce back (no pun intended). I would expect any horse (under normal circumstances) to bounce off a two week break between races...but how about a six week break?

The claiming game has an entire set of different rules, to my way of thinking, than with upper level horses. Claimers move barn to barn, and because of that, it's probably more difficult to assume that a past form cycle with one trainer will be replicated with another. Maybe that why I seem to feel that a horse that moves to a new barn might suddenly run a huge race and then repeat it...something might have been figured out.

[bcassidy]

Rokeby, yes I absolutely agree with your comments. What I have noticed is that certain trainers (whether through legal or illegal medications) are much more inclined to pair a top effort than regress and I see it very often.
The most interesting scenario occurs when a claimed horse moves between multiple barns in a matter of weeks. The effect can be displayed when a horse moves from a high percentage barn to a low percentage barn (where the new trainer cannot get the same level of effort off the claim as the previous trainer) or the reverse scenario where the high percentage trainer gets his new charge to run a huge effort immediately after a claim (when there just wasn't enough time to expect that new training techniques could have had that much of an affect on the effort the claimed horse displayed) I usually refer to these trainers as Super Trainers and can only explain these variations with some type of external substances (again whether that be legal or ilegal) The difference in the level of efforts while racing in different barns can be quite dramatic and is visually apparent with the data from the speed tools. I think anyone who religiously uses the speed products would confirm such findings.
On another point about bounces I absolutely believe that time between races is the key in the theory. Clearly a trainer which gives sufficient time between races to minimize the effect of a bounce will have much better results than one which doesn't. As I have seen in my own racing stock, big efforts in young horses can take months to recover from---not weeks. In addition, the knowledge today that most seasoned trainers and backstretch vets have about bounces compared to years ago is quite dramatic. The bloodwork on these animals can be analyzed on a weekly basis and preventative and post race medications can be given to either reduce the impact of a bounce or speed up the recovery from a likely bounce. The game has gotten very scientific and if you are willing to spend the money, there are plenty of people and products to help you get the maximum efforts from an animal in relatively short order.
You just can't count on the bounce to occur---it is totally dependent upon the trainer. It can be as simple as a trainer giving a horse the needed time between races to the more complex approach of administering external products to avoid a potential bounce or improve the recovery time required from such a huge effort that would have typically yielded a bounce.
As a simple case in point, most of my horses are getting jugs before a work/race and immediately after their works/races---such practices while expensive help to maintain a very healthy horse who gets the most out of each work/race while minimizing the effects of these efforts.
Their blood is pulled at least monthly if not more and problems are detected early and dealt with before they become a bigger problem. The science of racing has definitely become available to many people and it is no longer just the elite trainer which has access to the best solutions. Just as handicapping has gotten more competitive so has the backstretch. Some problems like bouncing are just getting dealt with more aggressively today than maybe they were years ago. Some trainers are able to determine (through blood analysis) how an animal has reacted to a race and may not even enter a horse unless they feel he/she is capable of giving an equally strong effort----but sometimes the horse can fool you.
Lastly, I would absolutely agree with your comment about the cheaper claiming horses exhibiting the bounce more frequently. I would attribute this fact to less experienced trainers (as a general rule) training this stock coupled with the fact that these horses are running for smaller purses which makes the expense of avoiding the bounce (through external medical and vet bills) less viable. It would probably be a money losing proposition at the lower levels of the game unless the trainer was also a heavy bettor of his own stock....something to look for.

[DDT]

It would take a very long post to answer all of the points brought out here, but I would like to say that I have not said handicappers should take Beyer figures at face value, nor have I said they were valid and could be used to handicap races. Any speed figure system, pace system, or what have you is based on races that have already been run. Unless the conditions today are identical to, or very close to that past performance, including the condition of the horse, it is more than likely that the instant race will not produce identical results.

Also, I do not have and have not expressed the opinion that any form of handicapping should be based on some sort of mathmatical system. Any angle you wish to discuss can be expressed using some type of rule. If you were going to use a spot play that involved a high percentage on off tracks, the first rule would be the race must be carded on an off track.

With simulcasting, the availability of many races makes spot plays or angle plays much more appealing than handicapping the entire card at one track.

I certainly agree that knowing the trainers, jockeys and horses at any particular track is an advantage as is the knowledge that at any track the top 10 trainers and jockeys win 90% of the races carded.

Many good points and angles have been discussed here, I like that.


DDT

[bcassidy]

ddt--I tried to simplify my second post on the beyer speed numbers from my first response to the same post. In the second post I tried to eliminate the other handicapping factors that I take into account when using speed numbers so that I could point out times when speed numbers are not as relevent as other times but I think you have raised a point in your last post that I tried to answer in the first response and that is form cycle.
Past recent races can absolutely be used to determine what level of effort you might expect from the race at hand especially if you have an indication of how this animal has reacted at other farther back portions of his/her form cycle. This is more difficult to discuss unless you have seen how other speed products post their data. Their data is posted on a graph and gives a much better visual image of this data. Many horses display the common sine wave image but others demonstrate a totally different image. It is quite dramatic to see and can absolutely be an indication of what you might expect from this horse today. If you haven't seen these graphs then you probably don't know what I mean. You could plot the beyer numbers on a graph and get the same visual I just don't believe beyers numbers are as good as the other products. Garbage in garbage out so to speak. I hope this helps explain my opionion on Beyers speed numbers.

[DDT]

bc

Again, I never said Beyer numbers were good for anything, and of course the Rags and other products are much better, never said they were not. And, yes we can use past performances and a graph of how those past races based on speed can point to form cycles and form an opinion as to what we can expect out of a particular horse today.

So, do you think that speed is the most important factor in handicapping?

DDT

[Foggytrip]

Class is more important than speed

[Rokeby Forever]

I'm with Fog. $10,000 claimers run for $10,000 because they can't beat $15,000, $20,000, or $30,000 claimers. If they could, there wouldn't be a class scale. A $10,000 claimer might be running faster than $20,000 claimers, but if you enter him in a $20,000 claimer, there's a good chance that he'll get his head handed to him (excluding all the supertrainer stuff going on).

[DDT]

Foggy and Roke

Absolutely, class is king. There are exceptions to every rule, but more often than not, a speedy $10,000 claimer cannot move up to the $20,000 level and succeed on a regular basis. There are times when a speedy lower end claimer can be entered in the right race and steal it, but not very often.

There are many "back class" angle plays around today that were being used years ago. We have to keep in mind that just because a horse is running at a certain level does not mean that horse can win at that level.

DDT

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi DDT,

Don't you think that back class is a tricky thing?

When I see a horse running for $10,000 that still has lines from $50,000 claimers on his form, I assume that the horse is going to show up to the paddock in a wheelchair. If all that back class and superior numbers are under front wraps with two bows, I think the idea that the horse is faster than what he's now facing might not be true - stick a fork in him.

One angle I do like with back class is when a trainer that previously had a horse during his better days claims it back at the reduced price. If a trainer loses a horse for $50,000 and claims it back at $20,000, I'm guessing that the trainer knows the horse well enough that he will go back to some method that worked in the past and squeeze out a win or two with the horse. If he knows that the horse is totally "kaput," why would he bother to claim it back?

Bob Klesaris is notorious with just that move. He'll reclaim some old warhorse running for half (or less) of what he lost it for and get immediate returns from it.

[Foggytrip]

He may claim it back because hes the owners pet.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hey Fog,

That did occur to me, but I think if a trainer says to an owner, "Look - that horse is done. Over, finut, finished!," I think an owner might be convinced to claim something else.

[DDT]

Hey Roke

Again, I did not say I look for back class and only back class. Where they have been racing is also important. A $10,000 claimer at Laurel is not the same as a $10,000 claimer at Aqu or Monmouth.

I certainly agree that anytime a trainer claims a horse back, whether for less money or not, that move indicates the trainer's (sometime the owner's) opinion of the horse, after all who would be in a better position to know that information.

The point is, at least you, Foggy and I agree that class is a strong, if not the strongest factor in handicapping races in general.

DDT

[Foggytrip]

It depends on the owner Roke, the pet claims happen often in KY.

Ive always thought it was ridiculous to claim one back. If you put a horse in for 20k thats what you think they are worth. If you get fair market value on the claim the only justification to take one back is for a pet.

[DDT]

Foggy

I would say that just because a trainer puts a horse in for a certain claiming price does not mean that is what the trainer thinks the fair market value is, the trainer may just be looking for the right spot for a win and the owner approves considering the value of the purse coupled with the claiming price is worth the risk. Of course the horse must win, and that is never a sure thing, ivory snow (99.9%) maybe, but never a sure thing.

And, if the reclaim was for "pet" purposes why would you risk losing the pet again and again, so if the horse shows up in the entries after being reclaimed it would be wise to take a closer look, at least in my opinion.

DDT

[Rokeby Forever]

Again, I did not say I look for back class and only back class. Where they have been racing is also important. A $10,000 claimer at Laurel is not the same as a $10,000 claimer at Aqu or Monmouth

Hi DDT,

Great point!

I'm sure you've heard the term, "Bottom is bottom." That's true, but the bottom levels at all tracks aren't the same. In NY, Maiden Claiming $25,000 is the lowest level for maidens, and the vast majority of them aren't worth a six pack. A $25,000 maiden from Laurel, where $25,000 is not the bottom for maidens, can usually eat the same class maidens at Aqueduct for lunch.