Beyer Speed Figures - can they be utilized as a tool

[bdw0617]

I think the most overrated class drop is dropping from a Non Winners of one allowance to a $50,000 claimer. In $50,000 claimers, you'll often get hard knocking horses that have 3, 4,, 5 or more wins under their belts - all a Non Winner of One horse usually has only broken its maiden.

On the other hand, I LOVE a hard hitting mid-level claimer this time of year in NY going to the Non Winners Of One allowance. The allowances in NY this time of year are so much easier than in the late spring and summer, so it's often not a class raise at all.

One type of horse I'll usually toss out is the three year old that's facing older horses for the first time, especially in claimers. A straight claiming race for three year olds is nowhere as tough as the same price for horses three and up. Claiming races for straight three year olds often have horses that have only broken their maiden, or maybe have two or three career wins. When they face olders for the same price, they often suddenly face hard knocking five and six year olds with $200,000 or more in earnings.

right now is the time of year that alot of new 4YO's who couldn't hack it at the end of last year find life because they can find races restricted to horses of just their age (4YO)... that damn condition book I tell ya

one race I would stay FARRRR away until at the very least may are thoose claiming 3,4,5 YO races.. at least the 3YO's.. they are still 2!!! going against 5 YO's

[Rokeby Forever]

Here's another example where I don't think Beyers mean anything:

Suppose some low percentage trainer claims a horse off a guy like Dutrow. I know the horse is going to go straight downhill, so I don't care what the horse looks like on paper - toss!

There are so many good angles that, sometimes, bets are automatic. If you want to make money in April, year after year, just bet any horse at Aqueduct that Allen Jerkens has shipped back from Gulfstream. It's amazing how he'll often win five in a row or 8 out of 10 at Aqueduct as soon as he returns from Florida, and it's because he trains a lot of his horses down there just to get ready for Aqueduct. Forget Beyers, form, post position, and everything else - just bet them.

I think having a handle on how trainers "operate" is a big advantage to handicapping. If you look at trainer stats, just about any 15% trainer will win a good chunk of his races with a certain pattern - a drop in distance, or bringing a horse back within a certain amount of time, or a bullet work before a race, or giving a horse two sprints before a stretchout, and so on...once you have that nailed down, it makes the game a lot easier - a 15% trainer can suddenly become a 40% trainer with a certain move.

Mr Miller was a turf kingpin in his day, but I didn't know anything about handicapping back then and I didn't fully appreciate his tremendous talent like I do now, but I do know that he'd prepare his horses for the turf and he wouldn't run one on the grass until he thought it was physically and mentally ready. Years after he retired, I read a stat on him that I couldn't believe - over a five year period, he had a 42% win percentage with putting a horse on the grass for the first time. Just think about that - 42% with anything he'd run on the turf first time, including a lot of bad form dirt maidens. With a stat like that, does any other handicapping tool matter? When, in handicapping, you can find a stat that strong, I think it overrides any other handicapping tool available.

[bcassidy]

I use speed figures all the time and wouldn't consider placing a large bet without using them. Specifically, I use the ragozin sheets for reasons some of the previous posters have already mentioned. They are expensive but I find them very necessary. I don't know anyone who uses them soley for the merits of the number, you still have to handicap but there are two reasons to use them: first you can handicap very fast with them, in just a few minutes you can identify the contenders and eliminate the no chance horses, second and most important, if you have never seen how the numbers are presented it might be difficult to visualize this but they are listed in a column that places the number to an actual date in a year so that when you see multiple numbers on an individual horse the amount of information you see in a quick glance is truely amazing---the most important being where that horse is in their form cycle. In my opinion form cycle is a very difficult factor to determine without the speed sheets and it is one of the more important factors to consider before placing a bet. As BDW has already posted it is not what the horse has just run which is most important but what you think that horse may run today and at what price which is the most important thing to consider.
All the big money that is wagered on horse racing today is done using speed numbers as one of their considerations. Why wouldn't you? If you were going to place a 5k bet would you even balk at spending $30 for a good handicapping tool? I know of many people with the opinion--- to make a big score on a race today "you need to beat the sheets"--because they are extremely relied upon by the big money players. I would absolutely concur that they are a tremendous handicapping tool but certainly not a tool you would use in every circumstance. As Rokeby has pointed out and I could give you at least another 10 reasons to prove his point further, there are many times when I would not consider their data as critical as other factors when making a bet.
Their major benefits lie in there speed of use, their ability to identify a horses form cycle as well as identifing the fastest horse/s in the race. If I were going to handicap lots of races there would be no other tool to use---in my opinion.

[DDT]

Okay, all of the points Rokeby has made and others go to situation handicapping or spot plays. My question was and is, do Beyer figures have any merit, do they stand alone as a tool one could use to advantage versus raw times as a guide to relative speed?

Do we want to take this thread into situation handicapping or spot plays?

One thing all of these methods have in common is statistics, the reason you look for any given situation is because those types of situations produce a winner more times than not.

Example, I have been playing this game for 50+ years, and even in this day and age of fewer average starts per year one statistic remains valid, close to 80% of the eventual winners of a race have raced within 30 days of that winning effort. It is easy to check, look at the results of any 100 races, any track, any distance, any surface, you will see that close to 8 out of 10 winners show a race within 30 days.

I would agree that the sheets are much more reliable, but that is because they are formulated in a different manner taking more factors into consideration.

Personally, I think that Beyer is an idiot, all you have to do is read most of what he writes, and it has been said many times that if he indeed discovered the golden goose he would not tell the world about it.

When we use the past to try to predict the future, whether it is by watching past races or reading past performances, I believe the most important thing to keep in mind is that each race is unique to itself, what happened a month ago could or could not be significant as to what might happen today.

So, if we agree that speed is a factor to consider when handicapping a race, do the Beyer figures provide the best indication?

DDT

[bdw0617]

Why wouldn't you?

again it goes back to what you are comfortable doing. i've learned over the last 5 years to trust what I see. also the thing about speed figures is that as long as you use them and swear by them you are going to have the same hot picks as everyone else. not much value there. IMHO that same question can be asked, IMHO more emphaticly, on people who will spend hundreds of dollars on a race, betting sometihing they have never seen with their own eyes. they aren't beting on horses, they are doing math formulas. I don't even see how people consider that fun


why does everyone say you have to "beat the races" and "beat the sheets" and meanlingless quotes like that? NO you don't. the point of para mutual wagering is to know something or have a different point of view on something than everyone else at the track does. when you try to find key picks and stats out of a beyer sheet you are squeezing blood form a turnip so to speak.

[Ill-bred]

I think the most overrated class drop is dropping from a Non Winners of one allowance to a $50,000 claimer. In $50,000 claimers, you'll often get hard knocking horses that have 3, 4,, 5 or more wins under their belts - all a Non Winner of One horse usually has only broken its maiden.

I would not consider NW1 to unrestricted claiming $50,000 a class drop. A 50k claimer is going to be faster than the NW1 allowance.

It depends on the circuit, but most NW 1 will match up well with claimers of $20,000 to $30,000 (in regard to par times).

[bdw0617]

I think the most overrated class drop is dropping from a Non Winners of one allowance to a $50,000 claimer. In $50,000 claimers, you'll often get hard knocking horses that have 3, 4,, 5 or more wins under their belts - all a Non Winner of One horse usually has only broken its maiden.

I would not consider NW1 to unrestricted claiming $50,000 a class drop. A 50k claimer is going to be faster than the NW1 allowance.

It depends on the circuit, but most NW 1 will match up well with claimers of $20,000 to $30,000 (in regard to par times).

you don't ever see that.. at least I don't.. maybe I haven't been paying that much attention. NW1's dont' drop into open company in claiming ranks.. that defeats the purpose of a class drop becuase it's actually a class raise, and now you can loose your horse for 50k, to someome who will 1) put him back into allowence company or 2) run him for a 50K NWOTmaiden

[Rokeby Forever]

This is a question for BCassidy, but I welcome the opinion of everyone:

Form cycles: Maybe 20 years ago, I remember when a lot of handicappers would bet a horse in its second start off the layoff (The "One off the layoff" angle). The thinking was that a horse generally needs a race off a layoff to get back into shape.

Nowadays, I find that horses seem to peak when they've had two races races off a layoff - the third start back seems to be a top effort in many cases, so the angle today might be called the "Third start back" angle.

If I'm right that horses now need two races back under their belts to prepare for a top effort as opposed to only one like they did 20 years ago, why do you suppose the change has occured? Is it because training methods are different, the breed is different, the racetracks are different, or what other factor(s) might you attribute it to?

BDW: You see thw NW1 drop all the time - a horse might be stuck in the condition for 5 or 6 races without much success, so the horse will be dropped in for a tag. Common sense says that it's a class drop, but I think it's often a class raise, just as Ill Bred pointed out. Yes, the condition is open if the horse is claimed, but the "drop" is because the horse can't compete at that condition.

On the other hand, some sharp claiming guys out there look for horses with open conditions because they know that at certain meets during certain times of the year, a hard knocking claimer can knock off the NW1 and even NW2 condition....New York right now is a good example. The big stables with better stock are all out of town, so condition allowances are much easier to win in January when the Motts, McGaugheys, Pletchers, and other top outfits are running their better stock out of town.

[bdw0617]

I want to ask that same quesiton to tuc.

I would say training methods more than anything else

[Rokeby Forever]

Getting back to DDT's question about Beyers as a day-in, day-out handicapping tool, it's hard for me to answer that because as DDT writes, I'm more of a situational, or "angle" player.

I question the validity of Beyers when they will change based on how horses return from a race that has already earned scores. As an example, Summer Douldrums earned a huge Beyer last winter, but when he came back and got defeated, that huge Beyer later dropped...and there are several more examples. So if Beyers are subject to change, how can they be trusted?

Assuming that they stay constant, I think they're terribly class weighted at the higher levels...I've seen some slowpoke stakes still earn a high Beyer when claiming races on the same day were run faster but they earned a lower Beyer. Think back to Commendable's Belmont - it could have been timed with an hourglass and it earned a 104 Beyer. Had it been a starter handicap and run in the same final time, it would have earned a 60 Beyer.

Beyer also gives stronger numbers to horses that win by open lengths. Some horses like to fight and don't win by much - Invasor is a good example. Some horses blow fields away - Bernardini is a good example. Bernardini's numbers were always higher than Invasor's, but when they met in the BC Classic, what happened? I'm convinced that all things being equal (distance, time, fractions, class), a horse that wins by 5 lengths will get a higher number than a horse that wins by a head, even though everything else is equal - the 5 length win is more visually impressive and I think it goes to the heads of Beyer's crew too often.

Enough people use Beyers for there not to be any validity to them, and some people give the numbers more strength in their handicapping than others, so I guess it boils down to this - if Beyers incorporated with a person's handicapping work, stick with them...and if they serve no use with another person's handicapping, don't use them. Simple as that, I guess.

I remember a time when weight shifts were used in handicapping. Sometimes two horses would meet again, but there would be a four pound shift favoring one of them the next time....and that used to sway many opinions. Today, I don't even hear or read about weight being a factor in handicapping. The five pounds off with a bug rider used to be a big factor in handicapping...I don't think it is any more. Is a four pound shift important when comparing 1,100 pound horses? I would think that it would be just as important as Beyers - a tool for some, meaningless to others.

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

I would agree with you about the shifting Beyer numbers and his obvious slant to higher class races and easy wins, those are two reasons why, in my opinion, the numbers must be evaluated individually, so if you take the time to see if you agree with the number, what value does the number have?

I think the difference in the 2nd start off the layoff and the 3rd start can be attributed to training methods. Years ago trainers raced their horses into shape, today, because the purses are higher, a trainer can pick up a nice check without having the horse cranked up to put forth a winning effort.

What do you think is the most important factor in handicapping in general??

DDT

[jainct]

Getting back to DDT's question about Beyers as a day-in, day-out handicapping tool, it's hard for me to answer that because as DDT writes, I'm more of a situational, or "angle" player.

I question the validity of Beyers when they will change based on how horses return from a race that has already earned scores. As an example, Summer Douldrums earned a huge Beyer last winter, but when he came back and got defeated, that huge Beyer later dropped...and there are several more examples. So if Beyers are subject to change, how can they be trusted?

Assuming that they stay constant, I think they're terribly class weighted at the higher levels...I've seen some slowpoke stakes still earn a high Beyer when claiming races on the same day were run faster but they earned a lower Beyer. Think back to Commendable's Belmont - it could have been timed with an hourglass and it earned a 104 Beyer. Had it been a starter handicap and run in the same final time, it would have earned a 60 Beyer.

Beyer also gives stronger numbers to horses that win by open lengths. Some horses like to fight and don't win by much - Invasor is a good example. Some horses blow fields away - Bernardini is a good example. Bernardini's numbers were always higher than Invasor's, but when they met in the BC Classic, what happened? I'm convinced that all things being equal (distance, time, fractions, class), a horse that wins by 5 lengths will get a higher number than a horse that wins by a head, even though everything else is equal - the 5 length win is more visually impressive and I think it goes to the heads of Beyer's crew too often.

Enough people use Beyers for there not to be any validity to them, and some people give the numbers more strength in their handicapping than others, so I guess it boils down to this - if Beyers incorporated with a person's handicapping work, stick with them...and if they serve no use with another person's handicapping, don't use them. Simple as that, I guess.

I remember a time when weight shifts were used in handicapping. Sometimes two horses would meet again, but there would be a four pound shift favoring one of them the next time....and that used to sway many opinions. Today, I don't even hear or read about weight being a factor in handicapping. The five pounds off with a bug rider used to be a big factor in handicapping...I don't think it is any more. Is a four pound shift important when comparing 1,100 pound horses? I would think that it would be just as important as Beyers - a tool for some, meaningless to others.

I believe the Beyer numbers consist of track variant and condition pars. The problem with this is there are just too many race conditions today where you can accurately make conditions pars. Some race conditions are run only a few times a year so you are working with a small sampling. I believe Beyer's focus using condition pars are for older horses. This means his pars have to be manually made to some extent. When race condition pars are devised like this then track variant is going to be difficult to make. When you have a full card and some of the races are routes and others on dirt and let's not forget turf, I would think accurate variants can't be established which in turn will make some races actually look alot better then what they actually were and vice versa. For me I have to find the Beyer flaws and there are many.

The speed figures are to be used as a guide and are not written in stone but so many people get caught up in his numbers because they are not willing to go and put the necessary work needed to handicap a race. They are bold type numbers and the public's eye is constantly looking at the numbers. You can use a good set of numbers but it's a must to incorporate other factors and there are many different factors to take into account. Just to give you an example of a factor that can be used is, will a horse run under the lights for the first time? The horse might have the numbers and really look good using many other factors but if the horse is not happy running under the lights you can throw everything out the window.

Some people believe in horse racing cycles and yes this can be a postitive factor to use but on the other hand if the horse looks like he's peaking but best runs a month between races and is in 9 days later the horse might spiral the other way. So what this comes all down to is being on the right side of the coin. Everything may look posititve when after the handicapping process is done but no matter what you still will need racing luck. I could visualize a race to a T but if you get a horse that never really shows early speed and all of a sudden you see a jock pumping hard early on to be part of the pace factor all that handicapping goes right out the window. It happens day in and day out especially at the smaller racetracks in the country.

I think Roke spoke about 3rd off the layoff and I believe the same way. You get a horse that been on the shelf and comes back first off the layoff and run a hugh race chances are it might have taken alot out of the horse and then it depends on how the trainer brings the horse back for the 2nd race. If you let the trainer do his or her job chances are the horse could run back well but if you have an owner that forces a trainer to run (and this happens much more today than ever) before that horse is ready then the race is over before the horse hits the overnight. All of these factors that I've included and the many others out there have a major influence on the speed figures bouncing back and forth.

jainct

[Rokeby Forever]

What do you think is the most important factor in handicapping in general??

To me - the trainer. There are so many times I'll look at a horse and like it on paper, but if I see that the trainer is 2-55 or 3-60, I'll say to myself, "Let him beat me!"

[DDT]

Rokeby Forever

Does that also go to the jockey, 2-105, do you get off the horse??


DDT

[Rokeby Forever]

Does that also go to the jockey, 2-105, do you get off the horse??

At a short price, heck yeah! When a guy is in a slump, don't ride along with him. I might take a shot at a price, but he'll have to start winning before I bet him with any confidence.