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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:22 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Roke

They might have had em for lunch a few years ago, today I'm not so sure, but the point is well made and taken. Again, if it was an established Laurel $25,000 claimer, and by that I mean a couple good runs at that level, shipping in to Aqu this time of year, yeah, I would have to say lunch is served.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:44 am 
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Darley line

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Hi DDT,

Every Winter at Aqueduct, you'll see the same thing over and over. Sharp guys from Maryland (Dick Small, Trombetta, Shuman, and others) will bring a $25,000 claimer up to NY to win a $35,000 claimer. I guess they know that the class of horse is about the same, but NY horses run for an inflated value. It used to be that these Maryland horses wouldn't get claimed because nobody in NY would want to pay $35,000 for a horse that looked to be worth $25,000 on paper, but now that so many owners and trainers use sheets, a hard knockin' $25,000 horse from Maryland will get six claims put in for it.

I think people in NY should now be a little leery about claiming these horses - my thinking is, "This Maryland guy knows that he's going to lose the horse. What do the people in Maryland know about this horse that people in NY don't?"

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:19 pm 
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Rokeby Forever

Shipping is another good angle. The main reason any trainer ships a horse a couple hundred miles is obviously for a larger purse, but it could also be for other reasons. Maybe a state bred condition or a turf race when there are none available at the home track, or looking for a price with a horse that is in good form. Whatever the reason, it is a sure tip off that the trainer thinks the horse has a chance, not many trainers will ship a horse just for a conditioning run with an eye towards a later race down the road. One additional good sign of the trainer's intentions is if the regular rider comes along for the ride or the trainer obtains the services of a top 10 jock at the track being shipped to.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:33 pm 
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Darley line

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Hi DDT,

Your on the button with a trainer bringing his own rider. He's not looking to waste a rider's time.

Another shipping angle I like is when a trainer goes to a track to run in a stake, and he'll bring along some claimer to run earlier in the card. That, I thought, always meant, "Shipping money." Even if the horse in the stake got clobbered, the claimer would win, maybe get claimed, and everyone comes out ahead.

The best I remember doing that was King Leatherbury. He didn't ship very often to NY for a stake, but when he did, he always shipped some claimer along with it. His claimer usually wouldn't go off at a price, but if you like 2:1 or 5:2, it was as safe a bet as the Indians against General Custer.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:49 pm 
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Rokeby Forever

Jockeys, hummmm, it reminds me of another good angle. Whenever a big race is carded some of the well known jockeys pick up mounts on earlier races. I can't remember if it was in 75 for Foolish Pleasure or 76 for Bold Forbes for the Preakness, went both years, but anyway it was over 30 years ago and I am allowed an Altzimmmmers moment, at any rate, Willie the Shoe was on a claimer in the first race, and I said to myself why would he ride a claimer, he has ridden over the track many times, he doesn't need a refresher. He goes off 7-2 or 9-2, can't remember that either, but he won pretty easy and started a real good double for me. The point is, if top jocks show up in earlier races on big race days, they deserve a second look, at least in my opinion.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:17 pm 
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Darley line

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DDT,

That angle is terrific - especially if the "name rider" gets a mount on a horse trained by a guy that the rider had an association with before he became a "name rider." As an example, when Jorge Chavez was in his heyday and he'd go to Florida to ride in a stake, if he ever picked up a mount on a Manny Tortora (the guy that started Chavez out) claimer, the horse would usually run a big race. I'm sure it worked for Chris McCarran whenever he'd go back to Maryland for a stake, and so on...

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:33 pm 
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Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 8:55 pm
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There are a couple instances where using Beyer figures is more helpful.

I find using Beyers for higher class races is better than lower class. Especially the top races. Check PPs of Ky Derby or BC Classic. Very rarely does a winner pop in there without being among the leaders in prior race Beyers.

I find using Beyers better for dirt racing than turf as to me turf is much more about pace than speed.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:32 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Playwithfire

You are correct when you say that there are instances where using Beyer figures are helpful.

In March of 1997 I wrote an article for American Turf Monthly concerning Beyer figures that was prompted by the statement by Beyer that "A superior wagering situation arises when a horse's last two figures are both larger than everybody else's last two. Such a horse - a double figure or, simply, 'a double fig' - has a built-in safeguard against the possibility that a single big figure might have been a fluke. A triple fig is better still." I thought, okay, I'll check that out, and, he was right. For the article I used consecutive editions of the Daily Racing Form until I charted 50 plays, using double figure or triple figure horses as the only factor considered. The results had 26 winners, 10 place, 9 show and 5 out of the money.

Out of the 50 plays there were 15 horses with a triple Beyer advantage and 12 of those won.

I added some basic handicapping rules to this information and ended up with 30 qualified plays, 21 winners, 4 place and 5 show with a return of $102.30 that produced a flat $2.00 win profit of $42.30. I know that 50 plays is not a large survey, however, 10 years later with over 5,000 plays produces similar win, place and show percentages with a very good ROI.

The rules are simple:

Rule 1: Horses with a triple Beyer figure advantage or more are automatic plays.

Rule 2: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which have not raced within the last 30 days.

Rule 3: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which have not won or finished in the money in their most recent race.

Rule 4: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which are making a distance change, sprint to route or route to sprint.

Rule 5: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which are making a surface switch, turf to dirt or dirt to turf.

Rule 6: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses that are dropping in class (level of competition) from their most recent race.

Because the general public uses Beyer figures, odds are a big problem, however, the high win/place percentage (around 80%) makes these qualified horses live in exactas, trifectas, daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's and pick 6's. You could also utilize an odds limit that would increase your ROI, say nothing lower than 5-2 or 3-1.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:22 pm 
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Darley line

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DDT wrote:
Rule 1: Horses with a triple Beyer figure advantage or more are automatic plays.

Hi DDT,

I saw this and I wondered - do I need Beyer to tell me that a horse is a standout? I mean...if Curlin ran in an optional $50,000 claimer, do I need Beyer to tell me that the horse can't lose unless there's an earthquake? LOL!

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:34 pm 
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Hey Rokeby Forever


Those rules are my rules, Beyer just said a triple figure was better than a double figure.

DDT


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:43 pm 
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Darley line

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Hi DDT,

Thank you, kind sir, for clearing that up for me. Allow me to rephrase:

So, if Curlin showed up in an optional $50,000 claimer, your rule would be that Curlin is an "automatic play." I don't know....it sounds shaky to me!

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:21 pm 
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Restricted Stakes Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
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Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
ddt----I would vote for speed over class in certain races and class over speed in other races. Young horses with lots of room for improvement I would rather go with the speed factor while older horses running against older horses I would prefer class but I find very few absolutes in handicapping. Just my opinion of coarse! :lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 11:07 pm 
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Darley line

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Nobody mentions weight shifts any more. Suppose two horses finished a length apart last time, but the horse that lost is now getting five pounds. Is that a factor at all in handicapping any more?

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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:47 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Hey Roke

Curlin would probably be an automatic play in any race, but what my rule as to automatic plays goes to is a triple Beyer speed figure advantage, meaning Beyer said it was a strong factor, I checked it out over a period of time and I agree that when a horse's 3 most recent Beyer figures are higher than any other horse's figures entered in the same race it is an automatic play, and actually it should read an automatic "qualifier". The odds would certainly determine, at least for me, whether it was a play or not.

I thought we were offering situations that, supported by statistics, produce a winner more times than not. I'm not telling everyone here to use this method to find winners, I am telling everyone that in the last 10 years it has proven to be very effective.

As to a weight shift, I personally have never used it as a factor, and more than likely have lost many a bet because I did not. Weight, at one time, was considered a major factor by the majority of handicappers. I do not know why it is hardly mentioned or considered now.

DDT


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:30 am 
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Yearling

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:16 pm
Posts: 60
DDT wrote:
Playwithfire

You are correct when you say that there are instances where using Beyer figures are helpful.

In March of 1997 I wrote an article for American Turf Monthly concerning Beyer figures that was prompted by the statement by Beyer that "A superior wagering situation arises when a horse's last two figures are both larger than everybody else's last two. Such a horse - a double figure or, simply, 'a double fig' - has a built-in safeguard against the possibility that a single big figure might have been a fluke. A triple fig is better still." I thought, okay, I'll check that out, and, he was right. For the article I used consecutive editions of the Daily Racing Form until I charted 50 plays, using double figure or triple figure horses as the only factor considered. The results had 26 winners, 10 place, 9 show and 5 out of the money.

Out of the 50 plays there were 15 horses with a triple Beyer advantage and 12 of those won.

I added some basic handicapping rules to this information and ended up with 30 qualified plays, 21 winners, 4 place and 5 show with a return of $102.30 that produced a flat $2.00 win profit of $42.30. I know that 50 plays is not a large survey, however, 10 years later with over 5,000 plays produces similar win, place and show percentages with a very good ROI.

The rules are simple:

Rule 1: Horses with a triple Beyer figure advantage or more are automatic plays.

Rule 2: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which have not raced within the last 30 days.

Rule 3: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which have not won or finished in the money in their most recent race.

Rule 4: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which are making a distance change, sprint to route or route to sprint.

Rule 5: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses which are making a surface switch, turf to dirt or dirt to turf.

Rule 6: Eliminate all double Beyer figure horses that are dropping in class (level of competition) from their most recent race.

Because the general public uses Beyer figures, odds are a big problem, however, the high win/place percentage (around 80%) makes these qualified horses live in exactas, trifectas, daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's and pick 6's. You could also utilize an odds limit that would increase your ROI, say nothing lower than 5-2 or 3-1.

DDT


Hello DDT:

Back in 1992, Beyer stumbled upon a race at LRL and one of the horses in the race showed a triple fig. The horse went on to win the race going off at 3-1. He thought to himself and asked the computer if it would be profitable to wait for such standouts. The computer responded not really. Here was the performance of one category of standouts, double-figure horses who had an edge of 10 points over the field in both of their last 2 starts.
Number of horses win percentage ROI
All 188 39 1.96
Sprints 82 41 2.15
Males 160 39 1.98

He then went on to point out that a purely mechanical handicapping system that picked around 40% winners would be stunningly profitable. He goes on to say when the public identifies a simple, obvious winning situation it will bet enthusiastically enough to destroy the odds.

Beyer also showed another test of horses that had the top figure in it's last race breaking it down to gender and distance. There were about 3k horses used when tested and the final result show a win percentage of around 30 and a ROI of 1.90 which would be a overall loss of 5 to 7.5 percent overcoming some of the 17% take.

I would believe using your rules for double fig horses it would only lead to smaller payouts.

Best regards,
jainct


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