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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:52 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
jainct

I said the payouts were low because a lot of bettors use the Beyer figures, and I also said you could establish an odds cut-off to increase the ROI. I read what Beyer said, decided to check it out, and found it to be basically true, that double and triple figure horses produce a pretty good win percentage. I added some basic handicapping factors and increased the win percentage. I never said, nor do I believe this spot play is the end all be all, however, it does produce a very good win/place percentage and if you want to take advantage of that win/place percentage you should find a way to play these types of situations, daily doubles, exactas, trifectas, pic 3's, pic 4's and pic 6's.

Take today as an example. A light day for racing, a 30 minute look at the races produced 8 horses that qualify nationwide. Whether you can get decent odds or not is another question, and of course they still have to win or win/place for exotics.

2nd TAM Dennis's Dream - Triple Beyer advantage
7th TAM Moment of Song - Triple Beyer advantage
1st BEU Caviarbythecreek - Double Beyer qualifier
4th BEU Sheisastar - Double Beyer qualifier
8th MNR Imreadyimready - Triple Beyer advantage
2nd PM Sam Angelo - Double Beyer qualifier
5th PM Why Tomorrow - Double Beyer qualifier
10th PM Im RoughnReady - Triple Beyer advantage

8 potential plays, depending on the odds, we will see how they do.

DDT


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:07 pm 
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Darley line

Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
Posts: 6684
Location: Reno, NV
Hey DDT,

I was just pulling your leg with that Curlin example.

When I was around the backside, I heard, "Weight could stop a freighttrain." Also, some bug riders were used for the weight off even if they couldn't tie a knot in their reins. But when it comes to handicapping, I never hear about anyone discussing weight and shifts.

Weight must mean something. Trainers like Frankel will run a horse in a stake where the Racing Secretary will give the best weight break to a horse, and most Handicaps today have a highweight of 119 pounds because trainers worry so much about weight. Bugs still get an allowance because trainers want weight off. So, I have to think it's important, but I don't know a sheet player that even looks at weight carried by a horse. It's a puzzle to me.

Maybe the sheet players like BCassidy could share their thoughts.

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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:21 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Hey Roke

I don't know, but, did the five pound sex allowance have anything to do with Rags' close victory over Curlin at 1 and 1/2 miles? The old saying "Weight can stop a freight train", like all quips, must have some truth to it. I believe weight is still talked about for stakes and handicap races, but claimers and allowance races, you do not hear much about a 5, 7 or more shift, or even a 3 pound shift.

I do wonder how many of those nose job losses could be attributed to neglecting to take weight into consideration.

DDT


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:06 pm 
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Grade III Winner

Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:31 pm
Posts: 1151
weight had nothing to do with it and she would have beaten him fairly easy without the stumble


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:16 pm 
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Darley line

Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
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Location: Reno, NV
The stumble meant nothing - it was a 1 1/2 race with a slow early pace that allowed her plenty of time to recover.

Fog - if weight doesn't matter, why don't horses regularly carry 127 instead of 117? What's ten extra pounds to an 1,100 pound animal? If horses carried 127 instead of 117, jocks wouldn't have to starve themselves to death as much as they do now. So, wouldn't that be a good thing?

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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:24 pm 
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Grade III Winner

Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:31 pm
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I didnt say weight meant nothing, I said in that particular race it meant nothing. Without the stumble she wins open length.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:28 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Foggy

I do not want to rehash the Belmont, but any way you look at it, she just barely beat him after a stretch long battle, open lengths, what race were you watching? I might add that I loved her at 4-1 and was happy she won.

DDT


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:33 pm 
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Grade III Winner

Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:31 pm
Posts: 1151
Im not sure what you and Roke are reading. I said open Length, she would have beaten him a length

Yes she beat him in a stretch long battle, and she probably lost a couple at the break

No the weight didnt make a difference in that race, however I think weight generally should be taken into account.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:43 pm 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:42 pm
Posts: 691
Location: Lexington, KY
In my handicapping, I consider five pounds to equal a length, and that is a conservative estimate.

Those who factor weight into their figures and handicapping (Jerry Brown, Len Ragozin) will tell you weight is much more powerful than my equation.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:48 pm 
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Grade III Winner

Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:31 pm
Posts: 1151
Right, but just because Jerry Brown, or Len Ragozine say it doesnt mean its the truth.

I do think the Thorographs are superior to the sheets.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:00 pm 
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Restricted Stakes Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
Posts: 876
Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
Rokeby---weight absolutely matters to me. However if the horse has demonstrated in their past performances that they could carry the weight and still run the same fig. then I wouldn't pay much attention to it but if it is a new weight for the horse then I would view that as a potential negative aspect and knock his total score by 1 length for each 5lbs at 6 furlongs with a sliding scale up to 3 lengths for each 5 lbs at 1 and 1/4 miles.
Weight can absolutely stop a train and I love to see horses that run competitively at a given level and then lose weight to similar horses. I would rather bet them when they are losing the weight. I want the horse to prove to me he can do it before I bet them and just as I would like a horse dropping in class (if everything appears normal) I love a horse losing weight to his competitors.
I also have learned to really like certain jockeys. Whether that is because of ground saved vs lost or pace handicapping, etc., I want to bet on the best jockey available in the race, provided he is on a competitive horse

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best regards Brendan


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:35 pm 
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Darley line

Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 4:52 pm
Posts: 6684
Location: Reno, NV
Thanks, BCassidy.

I don't know how much five pounds really equates to, but I think that weight means more in the mud than on a fast track. I can't prove it...it's just a theory of mine.

DDT has his certain guidelines, and this one was also told to me a long time ago - some horses will win or run well with front bandages on for the first time, but NEVER bet on a horse when front bandages go on first time in the mud. This logic actually came from Mr Miller:

He said (in so many words), "Imagine yourself running across a muddy football field. Now, imagine yourself yourself running across the same muddy football field with leg bandages on. The extra weight from the mud that gets absorbed and stuck to the bandages would make your legs more tired than usual."

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What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:12 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Well, for what it is worth here is how the Beyer advantage spot play did yesterday on the qualifiers I posted.

2nd TAM Dennis's Dream Triple Beyer win $3.20 no win play but he anchored a double that paid $55.20 cost to wheel the first $20.00

7th TAM Moment of Song Triple Beyer win $3.40 not much value here

1st BEU Caviarbythecreek Double Beyer win $4.40 start of an $18.40 double, wheel cost $12.00, not much value here.

4th BEU Sheisastar Double Beyer ran 3rd, favorite, not much here

8th MNR Imreadyimready Triple Beyer win $3.60 (dead heat)

2nd PM Sam Angelo Double Beyer win $2.60 anchored a daily double worth $138.00 a wheel cost $16.00.

5th PM Why Tomorrow Double Beyer 2nd

10th PM I'm Rough N' Ready Triple Beyer win $5.60 completed a double worth $31.80 wheel cost $12.00

Overall 8 qualifiers 6 wins 1 place 1 show a flat $2.00 win profit of $6.40 not very good but if you played the doubles when you could it tells a different story.

Again, I am certainly not trying to advise people how to bet or what to bet, what I am saying is that this particular spot play produces a very good win/place percentage and can be used to isolate on a key horse for daily doubles, exactas, trifectas and pic 3's, 4's and 6's.

This is a handicapping thread, just thought I would share something with all of you. Take it or leave it alone.

DDT


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:21 am 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:42 pm
Posts: 691
Location: Lexington, KY
That's a phenomenal win % on the day, but the problem is you will have to come close to maintaining it in the ong run due to the low odds, and that's a tall task.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:38 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Ill-bred

The whole point of discussing the spot play was and is that the win/place percentage does hold up in the long run. I first published this play in March 1997, since that time I have tracked well over 5,000 qualifiers, and the percentage has held up.

Certainly there are days without a winner, but there are very few days when qualified plays all run out of the money.

As I said, I am not trying to tout anyone to use this spot play, I discussed it here because we morphed to spot plays from the original question of do the Beyer numbers have merit, and under certain conditions, in my opinion, they do.



DDT


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