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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:35 am 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:42 pm
Posts: 691
Location: Lexington, KY
DDT wrote:
Ill-bred

The whole point of discussing the spot play was and is that the win/place percentage does hold up in the long run. I first published this play in March 1997, since that time I have tracked well over 5,000 qualifiers, and the percentage has held up.

DDT



You had 75% winners and 87.5% win/place yesterday at average winning odds of less than even money. You're saying that will hold up!?

Beyer tracked various top figure plays in one his books, and he did not come to the same conclusions as you regarding longterm profitability, particularly at low odds.

I believe he said the only time top fig horses are profitable long term is when the public does not believe in the figure -- see War Emblem, Charismatic, etc...


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:25 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Ill-bred

I do not know what criteria Beyer used when he did his tracking, and I have never read any of his books, but I did read is explanation that was published in the DRF and decided to see if in fact a double advantage was a good play. As I said, since then I have tracked over 5,000 of the qualifiers using my rules and the win/place percentage is over 80%.

The odds are low, yes, so my advice is to try to use these qualified horses in a manner that provides an acceptable pay off.

You track 100 qualified horses and see for yourself. I said I don't care if people use it or not. I do care that you question the results, why would I lie about it? Getting more people to use it only makes the odds worse.

DDT


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:01 pm 
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Darley line

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I'm going to assume that DDT's conclusions are accurate. With that assumption, I have to conclude that over the long haul, it can't be profitable with only win bets. However, I can see it being profitable in exacta bets.

Let's say DDT's rules come up with a 3:5 shot that shouldn't lose. How about if I single a horse in the exacta with it?

Suppose my handicapping comes up with a 12:1 shot against DDT's short priced horse. If my horse runs second to DDT's horse, the exacta could well come back $16. In essence, by conceding the race to DDT's horse, I'm getting 7:1 for my horse to beat the rest of the field as opposed to 12:1 to try to beat the rest of the field and DDT's horse. I don't think that's a bad play.

Over time, favorites will win 35% no matter what system is used. But what's the percentage of the second choice running second when the favorite does win? I'm sure every system known to man picked Secretariat to win the Belmont, but any common sense handicapper would have figured that Sham was a pooped out horse by the Belmont, so if you picked the right one of the three other entries to finish second (Twice A Prince), you got an $18 exacta. Even if you took the other three to beat a tired Sham for 2nd, the smallest exacta probable was $16 (with Sham, it was $3), so betting $6 to get back at least $16 against a knocked out horse wasn't a bad play with an unbeatable 1:9 shot, was it?

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:32 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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You know its funny Beyer would mention War Emblem, he had a double fig advantage going into the Derby as did FuPeg. One ended up going off at very good odds the other went off as the favorite, point is, both of them won.

If you factored in post position, weight, jockey, trainer and track condition you might be able to boost the win percentage even more by eliminating double figures that could be compromised by those factors.

It matters little, the low odds make it a bad win/place bet, I've already said that, and yesterday if two of the winners got nipped at the wire, the win percentage would dip but the win/place percentage would stay the same.

As with any system/spot play you are going to get situations where the odds favor a win/place bet, far and few between under these circumstances, but personally, I'll take 5-2 or 3-1, anything less and I will try to use the qualifier as a key horse.

DDT


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:25 pm 
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Starters Handicap

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The other ironic thing about War Emblem is that Beyer didn't trust his own figure. He picked against the horse.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:40 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Ill-bred

I was going to mention that Beyer did not pick War Emblem but he did like FuPeg. I don't know if he did not trust the figure or if it was he didn't think he could stay 1 1/4 miles. One thing to remember is if Beyer likes the horse you like in the Derby you better take a second look cause he is usually the kiss of death when it comes to the Derby.

DDT


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:45 pm 
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I remember that Andy Beyer HATED Alysheba in the KY Derby....as he does with most horses that don't win by open lengths.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 4:41 pm 
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Restricted Stakes Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
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Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
Interesting comment about War Emblem. I heard Baffert interviewed from Phoenix today and he talked about that Derby. He stated that the previous year, Point Given and ? had set blistering fractions and lost the race because of the early pace. He claims that all the connections remembered the previous year so vividly that they let War Emblem get off easy fractions and was able to go wire to wire because of the uncontested pace. (see my previous post about bad loses that bdw started for an interesting read on my bets in that race) I will never forget that derby because of the wager I made in that race. I lost over 180k that race because I didn't believe War Emblem would go wire to wire------and I loved War Emblem and keyed him in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:52 pm 
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Starters Handicap

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Songandaprayer, Balto Star, and Keats were the others responsible for said pace duel in the '01 Derby.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:49 pm 
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bcassidy wrote:
I lost over 180k that race because I didn't believe War Emblem would go wire to wire------and I loved War Emblem and keyed him in 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

OUCH! I remember I liked Perfect Drift in that Derby (before I knew the horse hung like a chandelier), and I never understood why bonehead Mike Smith on Proud Citizen didn't go after War Emblem - Proud Citizen was a faster horse. If they did hook up, maybe Perfect Drift would have caught them. Grrr!!!

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:46 am 
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Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:08 pm
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Location: KY
DDT,

In analyzing the double and triple standouts, do BOTH / ALL THREE speed figs have to be better than BOTH or ALL THREE of the last figs of everyone else (sorry to be so technical) or do you match one to one each fig individualloy? Also, can this be done with equibase speed figs, or jus the DRF/Beyers?

Thanks, and it's an interesting angle for exotics.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 1:33 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
ZZTOPPERS

Yes, the qualified horse must have higher Beyer figures than any other horse entered, two most recent for a Double and three most recent for a Triple, four for a Quad, and so on. Ties are an eliminator, they must be higher by at least 1 digit. You could have one on turf and one on main track as long as the race you are handicapping is run over the same surface as the most recent Beyer. Turf, sprint and off track Beyer speed figures tend to be higher than main track.

I tracked the DRF speed numbers and BRIS and the percentages were no where near as good as with the Beyers.

Of course, if you do your own speed figures that might be better.

DDT


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