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PostPosted: Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:49 pm 
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Bill from WA wrote:
They would all qualify IMO. Right now, I'm liking Anak Nakal, and I wouldn't write off Maimonedes just yet.

Bill


Thanks Bill, TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 9:42 am 
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Hi bdw

Etched is obviously a very nice horse and I believe he will continue to be quite successful. What I am trying to do with these numbers is predict (based on my research of the female families) which horses have the greatest probability of competing successfully at the Derby distance. This race is asking for them to do something that none of them have ever tried before…to run against other horses at 10 furlongs. The question that I am trying to answer is, which individuals have the best pedigrees (IMO) for the distance? That’s all I’m trying to figure out. My research tells me Etched will be best suited to compete at 8 to 9 furlongs. I think that if he were to run in the Derby, he would be in contention for most of the race, but would hit the wall in the final 1/16th of a mile, while horses like, Anak Nakal, Check It Twice, Nownownow (if he goes) and even Maimonedes will be hitting their best stride. Of course, all of this is pure speculation at this point, because many of these horses won’t even make it to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. I have to stress that these numbers do NOT reflect racing talent, but only the stamina contributions (based on years of research) in the pedigrees of each of the individuals. I like Anak Nakal (at this point) because I believe he has the racing style, connections, and pedigree to compete successfully at the 10 furlong distance.
I may be eating a healthy serving of crow after the race, but as of now, this is how I see things developing.

Respectfully,

Bill

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 9:48 am 
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re: Nownownow

He is still in Kentucky (either at Hurricane Hall or Fab Oak). But they say he will ship to Ireland in March and will be campaigned over there.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:02 am 
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I'm also an Anak Nakal's bandwagon. Etched beat him at a mile in the Nashua, but Zito's best often take time to develop and often improve with distance. With Etched moving to the Dubai playground, I'd expect to see him do very little between now and the Derby (ala Henny Hughes).

The Derby is often not won by the best or fastest horse, but the horse that wants 1 1/4 mile. I have no doubt at all that Anak Nakal will love the 1 1/4 mile distance - I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:38 am 
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Another horse to watch for out of the Zito barn is He's Solid Gold.

He's a half to High Fly, by Seeking the Gold. I really liked his debut win.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:35 am 
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Nick Zito has a few nice three year olds, and they're all worth following because he doesn't often break them down before the KY Derby. The one colt I don't like for the Derby, War Pass, looks tailor made for a race like the Met Mile, just like Holy Bull did at the time.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 12:42 pm 
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Rokeby Forever wrote:
I'm also an Anak Nakal's bandwagon. Etched beat him at a mile in the Nashua, but Zito's best often take time to develop and often improve with distance. With Etched moving to the Dubai playground, I'd expect to see him do very little between now and the Derby (ala Henny Hughes).

The Derby is often not won by the best or fastest horse, but the horse that wants 1 1/4 mile. I have no doubt at all that Anak Nakal will love the 1 1/4 mile distance - I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.



here is my thing however. and this is just my opinion. you can't rationally like a horse over another horse who got spanked by him.

this is the equivlant of me telling you going into the derby I liked storm in may, even though curlin beat him for kicks.

the dubai issue.. that will play out how it plays out. but etched is just a better horse. I would take el gato malo and war pass over anak nakal as well.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:38 pm 
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BDW...beating a horse in October means next to nothing in May. Horses mature at different levels and do better at different distances. A late developing 1 1/4 mile type horse will never beat an early developing miler in October. Why do you think so many early developing two year olds get dusted in the KY Derby?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:49 pm 
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but roke ,he didn't beat him.. he demolished him!


look, i'm not saying it can't happen. i remember when empire maker was 2.. wasn't anything to cry home about. as a 3YO he toyed with horses who were beating him. but as a 2YO I HAD NO basis of projecting that on him.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:56 pm 
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BDW - most BC Juvie winners look good, and most that run in the KY Derby get demolished.

Think of two third graders - one might be stronger and faster than the other. Now, move the clock forward and they're in 10th grade...are they still equally disproportionate, or is it possible that the slower one matured later and is now faster than the other kid?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:56 pm 
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bdw0617 wrote:

here is my thing however. and this is just my opinion. you can't rationally like a horse over another horse who got spanked by him.



Careful, these horses develop so much between fall two-year-old and the first Saturday in May.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 2:08 pm 
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my question.. is if you are going to use that logic why can't etched get better?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 2:23 pm 
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Let's put it this way - a lot of people are on Pyro's bandwagon. Why? War Pass "spanked him," so why can't he do it again in Kentucky?

Those that like Pyro are thinking that War Pass isn't a 1 1/4 mile horse, and Pyro is (or, that Pyro is more likely to want the 1 1/4 mile between the two). War Pass ran lights out in 2007, but I don't know many people right now that like him to win the KY Derby....so why like Etched any better?

Etched is in Dubai, where Day Pass wound up this time last year. I thought Day Pass had a lot of promise last year, but what happened to him over there? Forget about Etched until he's sent back to Kiaran McLaughlin as a train wreck.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 3:51 pm 
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you know how I feel about pyro.. he's a plodder. and given his pedigree I don't see where it is mandated he will thrive at 10 furlongs.

but for every horse SBS has wrecked over there.. he has done some good things with some... street cry?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 4:50 pm 
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It is a bit early for Derby predictions...we haven't even had the major preps yet, but at this point I have to like Court Vision and War Pass. Both have graded earnings, both are trained by patient, savy handlers, both are working steadily and barring injury, both should make the Derby. War Pass had an amazing move at Palm Meadows this past Saturday. Court Vision is just starting to crank up and is being trained slowly, but surely at Payson. TJ


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