How is Idiot Proof 5-2???

[AscotStud]

Are they kidding, 5-2 the the "Phoenix Gold Cup" after working 44 and change over the track. If he ends up 2-5 I'd be surprised. What's with line makers who want to be nice to everyone. Set the line like it should be, that's your job.

[Barn 31 T-breds]

As a guy who has made morning lines for a couple of racetracks, I can make a few comments on the subject.

First, many morning line guys don't even know how to make a morning line. Many don't know how to balance one, and some are not even astute handicappers. The reason for this is that most GM's don't know anything about it, and don't even believe it's that important. Therefore, you get all kinds of lines made by people of all levels of proficiency.

Some linemakers have instructions not to make the ML favorite lower than, lets say, 2-1 or 8-5. Why? Because there is a general belief that if the ML fave is too low, many bettors will pass the race as unbettable, and the handle will suffer.

One of the GM's I worked under told me to "make the line as accurate as possible, even if it means making horses 100-1" (he was one of the few who knew the game and had an opinion on how ML's should be constructed).

Well, one day we had one of the best horses in the country in what amounted to almost a walkover because of the competition. I made him 1-9 in my (early) line.

When the racing secretary saw that, he called me immediately. "What the hell are you doing, making that horse 1-9?".

I told him that I expected him to close at that price and he shot back "don't you want people to bet the race?"

I reluctantly agreed to bump up his ML to 1-2. The horse went off at 1-9 and won easily.

Sometimes you don't know what goes into a morning line maker's decision making. Sometimes, it's not even his own.

[bdw0617]

you were a good ML odds maker. a ML odds is not the relection of the abaility of the horse, it's the refleciton of what you preceive the public will close the horse at.

with that said I dont'think I would ever drop below 1/9. if it happens it happens but IMHO when you get that, you have a certain amount of people dropping HEAVY money on a horse, there are too many people on a track, most who couldn't handicap a foot race, to know that much about why this horse should be 1/9 if that makes any sense.

[AscotStud]

he ended up at 4-5 and got beat...I guess no trip to Dubai for him.

[bdw0617]

i won't go that far. a 2 million dollar 6 furlong sprint that I would put him under 10 to 1, why not take a shot. ITM is goinig to pay alot of bills and you get taken care of while you are there. i'd take a stab.

it depends on how they size up the rest of the talent. but outside of fablous strike ,i'd take my chances if I were his connections against any other horse right now at 6F.

[AscotStud]

the thing is if a horse who should had toyed with a field doesn't, you have to wonder if your horse is doing ok. It's a long way to ship and run if things are not right with the horse. The only saving grace is that they were not too happy with the 44 and change work and unless they use the excuse "that took to much out of him" I can't see justifying the trip.

I really like Idiot Proof, but you have to do what's right for the horse and not just run because they are putting up the big bucks.

[bdw0617]

the thing is if a horse who should had toyed with a field doesn't, you have to wonder if your horse is doing ok. It's a long way to ship and run if things are not right with the horse. The only saving grace is that they were not too happy with the 44 and change work and unless they use the excuse "that took to much out of him" I can't see justifying the trip.

I really like Idiot Proof, but you have to do what's right for the horse and not just run because they are putting up the big bucks.

who says he should have "toyed" with the field. that right there is laughable. surf cat is just as accomplished as any horse in the field, he won 3 straight graded stakes in a row 2 Years ago and was put on the shelf and is widley considered to be one of the most talented horses in training.

no discrace loosing to surf cat whatsoever.

[AscotStud]

Idiot Proof got beat by Tribesmaster (or something) in the Phoenix Gold Cup at Turf Paradise...there weren't no Midnight Lutes in that field so yes he should have toyed with them.

[bdw0617]

i'm not talking about idiot proof, i'm talking about surf cat. surf cat is a legit grade 1 calibur horse and has been for 2 years. Johnny Eves won the Malibu this meet, a grade 1 sprint. Circular Quay is a grade 1 winner and grade 1 calibur horse when he's right.


again, where is the idea that a horse who won his only grade 1 race 3 years ago shoudl walk over this field?

[AscotStud]

you do know this thread is about Idiot Proof don't you.

[bdw0617]

i get the two horses mixed up. but the point is still the same. this was one of the better grade 2's I've seen in a while. could have easilybeen a grade 1 race.

[AscotStud]

yes it was a nice race and good to see Surf Cat back to his old self, very powerful stretch run.

[bdw0617]

i didnt' think he was going to get there and in the turn I thought he was going to pack it in. very good race.

[geowarrior]

Going back to the topic of the thread. It may not be that Idiot Proof is off his game, but that the horse that beat him is an up and coming star. I believe this is his fifth win in a row? I don't know what they'll do about Idiot Proof, but look for the winner to start stepping up in class. Whispers are already being heard about aiming him for the B.C. Sprint.

[bdw0617]

no, surf cat is as old as moses. lol

he won 3 straight grade 2's 2 years ago and was considered by many to be a freak of nature. got injured and put on the shelf. he came in 3rd last race.

when he's on his game, there are not many better in the country.