Factors You Use to Elimate Horses for the KD

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diomed
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Postby diomed » Sun May 04, 2008 9:31 am

Bill from WA wrote:Hi Diomed

It seems that your system nailed it in the Derby. Good job. Big Brown was very impressive, and had a great conduit profile for the distance.

Bill


Thanks.
I did OK, but the odds of Big Brown were justified and his being the favorite lowers the payoff. So no big score this year.
The exacta was all I hit.
My trifecta was ruined by Denis Of Cork, who I didn't use.
Oh well, not a perfect system, but it did give me the top two.
The "Boundary" naysayers just found out who Mien is and why the dam is so important in a pedigree.....
I have been saying all along that Big Brown can and will get the distance. :twisted:

jagger
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Naysayers

Postby jagger » Sun May 04, 2008 10:55 am

Agree about the naysayers, diomed. Totally ignoring 50% of the DNA surely does not make sense. Goooo Bill from Wa and thanks for the conduit mare profile :D

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George William Smith
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Postby George William Smith » Sun May 04, 2008 9:18 pm

Great Job Bill

Since you produced the Conduit numbers for the Derby and since for the 3rd straight year that I have been producing my Kentucky Derby package, the horse with the highest GSV won the Derby, I thought I'd follow your lead and go back and generated GSV numbers for all the Derby winners from 1900 to 2008. I have posted them on my web site, but will also include them in this post though it will take up quite a bit of space and I don't know how to format the material so that the numbers will space out right.

Please note the early the year of the Kentucky Derby, the more unreliable the number as the stats from those years can be really sketchy and a lot more default values are used. Since 2006, the GSV has nailed most of the classic races and I know it is just a matter of time before we have some horses with moderate or obscure pedigrees win some of our best races. But in the meantime, we'll celebrate success. For Bill and I have certainly put up a good argument that genetics plays a big role in the success of today's thoroughbreds.

Year Horse GSV
2008 Big Brown 84.31
2007 Street Sense 83.07
2006 Barbaro 80.20
2005 Giacomo 74.33
2004 Smarty Jones 72.35
2003 Funny Cide 70.63
2002 War Emblem 66.39
2001 Monarchos 80.34
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 80.09
1999 Charismatic 83.68
1998 Real Quiet 76.41
1997 Silver Charm 72.11
1996 Grindstone 76.90
1995 Thunder Gulch 72.44
1994 Go for Gin 81.87
1993 Sea Hero 81.02
1992 Lil E. Tee 65.78
1991 Strike the Gold 71.95
1990 Unbridled 76.90
1989 Sunday Silence 68.96
1988 Winning Colors 70.05
1987 Alysheba 80.80
1986 Ferdinand 75.24
1985 Spend a Buck 81.58
1984 Swale 80.76
1983 Sunny's Halo 67.93
1982 Gato Del Sol 69.97
1981 Pleasant Colony 79.71
1980 Genuine Risk 74.93
1979 Spectacular Bid 68.93
1978 Affirmed 72.68
1977 Seattle Slew 77.93
1976 Bold Forbes 69.36
1975 Foolish Pleasure 85.95
1974 Cannonade 78.31
1973 Secretariat 77.64
1972 Riva Ridge 79.52
1971 Canonero II 73.28
1970 Dust Commander 69.68
1969 Majestic Prince 82.78
1968 Forward Pass 82.36
1967 Proud Clarion 79.71
1966 Kauai King 80.01
1965 Lucky Debonair 73.09
1964 Northern Dancer 88.19
1963 Chateaugay 78.65
1962 Decidedly 75.75
1961 Carry Back 65.50
1960 Venetian Way 70.29
1959 Tomy Lee (ENG) 86.89
1958 Tim Tam 81.41
1957 Iron Liege 84.30
1956 Needles 70.91
1955 Swaps 81.89
1954 Determine 85.33
1953 Dark Star 67.17
1952 Hill Gail 76.42
1951 Count Turf 71.48
1950 Middleground 66.79
1949 Ponder 83.82
1948 Citation 85.71
1947 Jet Pilot 81.88
1946 Assault 83.28
1945 Hoop Jr. 74.38
1944 Pensive 86.10
1943 Count Fleet 62.53
1942 Shut Out 79.34
1941 Whirlaway 75.62
1940 Gallahadion 78.27
1939 Johnstown 69.15
1938 Lawrin 68.14
1937 War Admiral 79.80
1936 Bold Venture 68.92
1935 Omaha 76.03
1934 Cavalcade 67.99
1933 Brokers Tip 70.45
1932 Burgoo King 58.45
1931 Twenty Grand 71.80
1930 Gallant Fox 80.71
1929 Clyde Van Dusen 72.21
1928 Reigh Count 61.32
1927 Whiskery 73.81
1926 Bubbling Over 72.74
1925 Flying Ebony 59.83
1924 Black Gold 57.89
1923 Zev 66.09
1922 Morvich 50.82
1921 Behave Yourself 58.76
1920 Paul Jones 64.34
1919 Sir Barton 70.13
1918 Exterminator 50.94
1917 Omar Khayyam 77.15
1916 George Smith 59.45
1915 Regret 69.45
1914 Old Rosebud 73.94
1913 Donerail 65.82
1912 Worth 58.99
1911 Meridian 67.49
1910 Donau 53.63
1909 Wintergreen 48.77
1908 Stone Street 57.66
1907 Pink Star 58.14
1906 Sir Huon 56.04
1905 Agile 62.19
1904 Elwood 56.99
1903 Judge Himes 54.35
1902 Alan-A-Dale 60.34
1901 His Eminence 67.32
1900 Lieut. Gibson 61.73

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geowarrior
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Postby geowarrior » Mon May 05, 2008 6:15 am

Enjoyed the list, George, but wow, the figure for Count Fleet was a surprise. There's a horse who obviously outran his pedigree and then, of course he has had a lasting influence on the breed through his daughters.

Bill from WA
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Postby Bill from WA » Mon May 05, 2008 8:33 am

Hi George

Thanks for the list. I appreciate the time and effort that you have put into creating this valuable tool. This will be a wonderful historical reference. Congratulations on your success. Well deserved.

Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

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George William Smith
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Postby George William Smith » Mon May 05, 2008 11:51 am

geowarrior wrote:Enjoyed the list, George, but wow, the figure for Count Fleet was a surprise. There's a horse who obviously outran his pedigree and then, of course he has had a lasting influence on the breed through his daughters.


I too was shocked. I thought I have made a mistake entering the data. I even double checked it and found that I could not make an arugument otherwise. The pedigree was good enough but tons of holes. It seems that he got the best genes possible and very little of any bad stuff since he was such a good sire and broodmare sire.

George

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geowarrior
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Postby geowarrior » Mon May 05, 2008 2:42 pm

Very interesting, George. Can you summarize what you consider to have been the strong aspects of Count Fleet's pedigree as well as the weak ones?