Factors You Use to Elimate Horses for the KD

[Elusive City]

Last year was a much easier race to handicap than this year-much clearer picture-at least for me it was. I've been analyzing and analyzing this year. Tossing horses, adding horses, running figs, but the one horse that has been a constant on my list from the beginning is Court Vision. People say "too slow" but I think he will be right there on 5/3

Well last year my Top 5 were (in order):

1. Any Given Saturday
2. Street Sense
3. Hard Spun
4. Sedgefield
5. Curlin

this year so far: (and the top 4 lines in their pedigree)

1. Z Fortune (Teddy,Count Fleet,Blenheim2,Swyndford)

2. Pyro (Nearco, Nearctic, Native Dancer, Bold Ruler)

3. War Pass (Nasrullah, Nearco, Mumtaz Begum,Teddy)

4. Gayego (Bold Ruler, Native Dancer,Princequillo,Count Fleet)

5. Recapturetheglory (Nasrullah,Nearco,Native Dancer,Teddy)

But everyones expecting a hot pace so I am not sure a few of these can survive the hot predicted early pace.

The City

[Altanbarr]

I think internal fractions are a good way to evaluate Derby preps. The Illinois Derby is a useless prep because the half mile time was slow so there is no way to tell how any horse in that race will do in a faster paced race. I think Recapturetheglory has no chance in the Derby, but, as Z Fortune showed in the Arkansas Derby, his inability to close in the Illinois Derby does not mean he won't do well in a faster paced race. Big Brown, on the other hand, ran the half in 45 and change in his allowance win and the Florida Derby and he was still running easily at a mile and a mile & an eighth. Gayego got a perfect trip with a softer pace in the Arkansas Derby so I think we have seen the best he has got and it is not good enough to beat Big Brown if he is healthy and gets a decent trip. Same with Smooth Aire. Z Fortune ran four wide in the Arkansas Derby and still nearly caught Gayego though Z flattened out in the last 16th. Colonel John barely beat a bunch of sprinters trying to stretch out. Wild card is Tomcito who ran pretty well first off the layoff. Right now my top three are Big Brown, Z Fortune and Tomcito.

Internal fractions led me to Bernardini in the Preakness a couple of years ago even though he was lightly raced. I did not get to see if he was good enough to beat Barbaro but Bernardini was light years better than any other horse in that race and I think I got pretty good odds.

[Elusive City]

Wild card is Tomcito who ran pretty well first off the layoff. Right now my top three are Big Brown, Z Fortune and Tomcito.

Tomcito needs some bucks tomorrow plus a decent race to make the Derby Field. (sitting on the outside looking in right now)

Since there is no real fav everyone (including 2 fillies) think they can win the derby this year.

Major knock on Big Brown (besides breeding--boundry???) will be the CD surface. Its way harder and less forgiving than Gulfstream. Not good for a hoss with bad feet.

The City

The city

[Elusive City]

Tomcito needs some bucks tomorrow plus a decent race to make the Derby Field. (sitting on the outside looking in right now)

Tomcito runs horribly as the chalkie in the Lexington. No extra money won for him, so he won't be in the derby field of 20.

The City

[diomed]

Just curious about Adriano's pedigree numbers.
He appears to be loaded as well.
How does he fare with the factors already mentioned?

[George William Smith]

Here are the 2008 GSV numbers for all horses on the Derby Trail with Graded Earnings:
GRADED EARNINGS [KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS] WITH GSV SCORES
RANK HORSE EARNINGS GSV
1 War Pass $1,470,000 77.96
2 Pyro 1,020,000 76.15
3 Tale of Ekati 738,000 72.20
4 Colonel John 720,000 67.42
5 Gayego 640,000 66.12
6 Big Brown 600,000 84.31
7 Z Humor 579,000 79.46
8 Monba 515,000 71.16
9 Court Vision 331,872 76.80
10 Z Fortune 329,000 54.10
11 Adriano 310,000 81.25
12 Recapturetheglory 300,000 68.01
13 Smooth Air 290,000 68.61
14 Salute the Sarge 258,940 69.71
15 Cool Coal Man 212,767 78.08
16 Anak Nakal 212,216 71.12
17 Eight Belles 210,000 78.68
18 Cowboy Cal 207,660 77.76
19 Visionaire 202,500 70.36
20 Big Truck 194,500 73.61
21 Bob Black Jack 180,000 52.51
22 Denis of Cork 165,000 68.95
23 Halo Najib 157,996 70.47
24 Indian Sun 154,000 67.50
25 Tomcito 151,292 75.99
26 My Pal Charlie 150,000 69.49
27 El Gato Malo 145,000 64.29
28 Hey Byrn 140,000 61.43
29 Atoned 130,000 74.67
30 Coast Guard 130,000 67.65
31 Blackberry Road 123,417 77.07
32 Golden Spikes 118,000 85.21
33 Tres Borrachos 118,000 69.18
34 Golden Yank 115,000 62.37
35 Yankee Bravo 105,000 65.73
36 Racecar Rhapsody 90,871 79.15
37 Kentucky Bear 75,000 68.33
38 King's Silver Son 60,000 71.06
39 Texas Wildcatter 53,750 65.00
40 Stevil 49,500 65.11
41 Medjool 47,500 65.59
42 Giant Moon 38,750 69.69

[jagger]

Thanks, George.

[Bill from WA]

Hi All
Here are the contenders for this year’s triple-crown who descend from the same female family of previous winners of a triple-crown race. The name after the contender is his/her conduit mare (mare found tail female that was foaled nearest to the year 1900 and not before that date)

Gayego (Torpenhow) (Jazil, Rags to Riches)
Court Vision (Rambling Rose) (A P Indy, Lemon Drop Kid, Summer Squall)
Adriano (La Venganza) (Bold Forbes, Bet Twice)
Recapturetheglory (Marchetta) (Celtic Ash)
Smooth Air (Cherokee Rose II) (Fusaichi Pegasus, Jaipur, Pine Bluff)
Eight Belles (Doxa) (Spend A Buck, Go For Gin, Sea Hero, Smarty Jones, Prairie Bayou, Personality)
Cowboy Cal (Chit Chat) (Grindstone, Arts and Letters, Pass Catcher)
Halo Najib (Valve) (Greek Money)
Indian Sun (Audience) (Venetian Way, Timber Country)
Tomcito (Affection) (Coastal, Crème Freche)
My Pal Charlie (Marchetta) (Celtic Ash)

There are several horses that trace to conduit mares whose descendants have won “classic” races in other parts of the world, most notably Big Truck and Bob’s Black Jack who share the conduit mare, Pretty Polly (15 classic winners outside the US, but no triple crown races here). Monba (Ste Claire) is from the same family as Proud Truth and Sir Ivor, while Big Brown (Simon’s Shoes) is from the family of 2000 Guineas winner, Golan, and the Oaks Stakes winner Valoris, as well as the leading sire Sadler's Wells. Anak Nakal traces to Membrilla, ancestress of two 'Arc winners, and one 2000 Guineas winner.
The horses that descend from conduit mares that do not have a classic winner anywhere in the world as yet (that could easily change) are:
Pyro, Colonel John, El Gato Malo, Visionaire, Hey Byrn, Denis of Cork, Globetrotter, and Atoned.

Bill

[George William Smith]

Thanks Bill for that information. Wonderful research.

[gmj828]

This has been a great thread. Thanks everyone! One week from today is the post draw-whoo hoo!

[Elusive City]

From this morning at Churchill downs:

>He was followed about an hour later by stablemate Z Fortune, who >made an awesome physical appearance on the racetrack while galloping >a slow mile after visiting the starting gate.

All systems go for next Saturday.

The City.

[diomed]

I thought I would share my "system".
It has been pretty productive for the last 10 year. 2005 was a fluke IMO, but sometimes that happens. LOL!!
Use 11 categories.
For performance figures I use BRIS speed and pace numbers, and the PFs from Roman.
The categories I use are; the GSV score, DI, CD, Dosage points, Conduit Mare index, Best BRIS number, Average BRIS number for the last 3, Early BRIS pace number(avg. last 3), Mid BRIS pace number(avg. last 3), Late BRIS pace number(avg. last 3) and best PF.
I use an excel sheet and filter various factors.
Big Brown is the only horse who passes all filters.
By pedigree factors, Big Brown included and in no particular order, the others are; Adriano, Big Truck, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Pyro, Z Humor, Tomcito, and Cool Coal Man.
If you then "just" go by performance numbers, the qualifiers can vary based on your filtering options but there are a couple that could pay well in the underneath betting.
I like Smooth Air myself.
Interestingly, Colonel John does not filter through any of my combinations other than Late Pace numbers.
Considering the "unknown" of polytrack, I think I will use him in my exotics. He just seems to be too talented to leave out.
On paper, Big Brown should romp in this race.
As much as I would love to toss the chalk, I just can't.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Diomed

It seems that your system nailed it in the Derby. Good job. Big Brown was very impressive, and had a great conduit profile for the distance.

Bill

[jagger]

A victory for The Conduit Mare Profile, Bill Both 1st and 2nd place horses had the top conduit mare profiles by either my bastardized version of your original concept or your more refined version. Anak Nakal, another good conduit mare profile, did much better than everyone expected as well. Denis of Cork owes his success to the amazing ride of Calvin Borel. So much for the Boundary naysayers who ignored half of the DNA in BB. Will be checking to see how the other good conduit mare profiles fared.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Jagger

The profiles worked out quite well. My biggest disapointment was Big Truck who got knocked around a bit and spit it out. I understand they will be trying him on the grass. He looks to be a morning glory type at this point. I did manage to hit a $20 Oaks/Derby double (I invested $140), and a $20 exacta box with Eight Belles and Big Brown (boxed Big Brown, Eight Belles and Big Truck) in the Derby. I blew my superfecta since I had Big Truck and Court Vision in the mix, and I had a small win bet on Big Truck. Tragic about the filly. My heart goes out to the connections.

Bill