Factors You Use to Elimate Horses for the KD

[gmj828]

Lots of talk about Big Brown on various web sites and I know that once the ball of hype gets rolling it's hard to stop but he is going up against 93 years of history in the derby with only 3 starts and because of that major factor, he will not be on top in any of my exotics on Derby Day. Curlin scared the hell out of me last year but I didn't have him on top either. Curious as to how much you folks weigh historical markers when handicapping?

I have also done some research on historical GSV #'s of derby winners and Dosage totals. It may be hogwash to some but here are the facts:

Since 1935 only Count Fleet in 1943 has a GSV of less than 61 (54.15).

Since 1965 only 4 horses have had a GSV or less than 65. They are:

War Emblem-2002: 64.80
Lil E. Tee-1992: 61.59
Canonero II-1971: 63.82
Lucky Debonair-1965: 62.62

This year contenders under the 61 number are:
Smooth Air 60.23
Yankee Bravo 58.73
El Gato Malo 56.95
Hey Byrn 52.06
Z Fortune 49.62

I can post dosage stuff in another post if anyone is interested.

Any opinions or insight is welcome


One Month From Today Is Derby Day!

[Bill from WA]

Here are the conduit mare derived stamina numbers for the winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1972. The lower the number, the more female family stamina influences are assumed
Only 4 winners had a stamina index of 1.00 or higher, the highest being Ferdinand in 1986 (1.19), and the lowest was Thunder Gulch in 1995 (0.44). The average stamina index is 0.79. Big Brown has a stamina Index of 0.75.

Bill

2007: Street Sense (0.53)
2006: Barbaro (0.49)
2005: Giacomo (0.87)
2004: Smarty Jones (0.78)
2003: Funny Cide (0.83)
2002: War Emblem (1.02)
2001: Monarchos (0.70)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (0.79)
1999: Charismatic (1.00)
1998: Real Quiet (1.02)
1997: Silver Charm (0.65)
1996: Grindstone (0.84)
1995: Thunder Gulch (0.44)
1994: Go For Gin (0.80)
1993: Sea Hero (0.49)
1992: Lil E Tee (0.73)
1991: Strike The Gold (0.93)
1990: Unbridled (0.85)
1989: Sunday Silence (0.71)
1988: Winning Colors (0.79)
1987: Alysheba (0.95)
1986: Ferdinand (1.19)
1985: Spend A Buck (1.13)
1984: Swale (0.66)
1983: Sunny’s Halo (0.76)
1982: Gato Del Sol (0.69)
1981: Pleasant Colony (0.73)
1980: Genuine Risk (0.92)
1979: Spectacular Bid (0.98)
1978: Affirmed (0.73)
1977: Seattle Slew (0.74)
1976: Bold Forbes (0.76)
1975: Foolish Pleasure (0.79)
1974: Cannonade (0.90)
1973: Secretariat (0.56)
1972: Riva Ridge (0.79)

[jagger]

I like your thinking, gmj828. I am a numbers guy or sorts too. I can see you have put quite a bit of effort into this project. Obviously, there are always going to exceptions that don't fit the mold but in general, I would say that a GSV of >65 is ideal for a KD winner. Dosage points are also a factor I consider as well and in general, a dosage of >20 would seem a good bet with few exceptions below that. I also like including conduit mare profile as well and have an admittedly partially redundant way of calculating this. Hello Geowarrior. I add the stamina number to the third triad. With again, a few exceptions, most winners are >25. Most notable exception was Charistmatic with a meager score of 20 but he also had 28 dosage points and an even more impressive GSV of 75 to indicate his class and potential. I tend to give this derived Conduit Mare profile quite a bit of notice, particularly at the classic distances.

With a few exceptions, almost all the KD winners have at least one of the 3 above mentioned that indicate potential or class. Most notably, FuPeg is at or near the top with DP of 56, GSV of 78 and conduit mare profile of 33. At the other end is the remarkable Lil E. Tee with just 16 Dosage Points, GSV of 62 and conduit mare profile of 27.

I also use the single or double copy status of the mares in the first few generations, particularly on the mare's side. A string of double copy mares on the dam's side will get my attention.

Number of reine de course mares and chefs in the first 4 generations are considered, particularly if they are close up.

I like to try to eliminate as many horses based on all these indicators of potential or class as I can. Many times, a horse that has done very well up to 1 1/8 will not have what is needed to get that final 1/8. Great example is Brother Derek, the cofavorite in Barbaro's year. With a conduit mare profile of just 17, I was confident that he would not be a factor at a 1 1/4. I definitely get fooled from time to time though. Most notably with Jazil's victory in the Belmont with a conduit mare profile of 19, the worst of any Belmont winner.

Nothing is perfect for sure but it sure is fun. That's horseraceing.

Big Brown? 36 Dosage Points, GSV 76 and a monster conduit mare profile of 39. Only Sea Hero had as many as 39. Sea Hero also had 36 Dosage Points and a GSV of 76. He will definitely get my money.

[jagger]

What incredibly bad luck. I posted after Bill about the conduit mare profile!!! I think you have altered your system, Bill, since my last observation. Can we ask how these numbers are derived? Could you list your numbers for the other KD contenders? Mea culpa, Mea culpa. Members, please pay no notice to anything I said regarding conduit mare profile in the above post EXCEPT that it is a fine tool when evaluating horses, particularly, for me anyway, at the classic distance.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Jagger

I like the way you figure your conduit stamina numbers.

The formula that I use is as follows.
Add the Index number of the broodmare sire of the sire (0.85 etc) to the Index number of the broodmare sire of the dam, and divide by 2.
Add this total to the Index number of the target horse and divide by 2.
Subtract the total of Stout and Professional numbers of the target horse's profile (breaking the number down to tenths, example would be a total of 12 S & P points would turn into .12). Next trace to the conduit mare of the target horse, and add or subtract the aptitudinal designation of the conduit mare (you need the aptitudinal ratings found in my book or update list). B = plus .04, I = Plus .02, C = Neutral, S = Minus .02, P = .04. B/P = minus .02, B/S = Neutral, I/C = plus .01, B/I = plus .03, B/C = plus .02, I/S = minus .01, C/S = minus .02, I/P = minus .03.
The lower the final number, the more stamina is assumed.
The average stamina index number for the Kentucky Derby winner is 0.79.

I would like to stress the fact that these numbers have nothing to do with racing talent, but only each individual's percieved stamina capabilities, which are based on the female family influences that have unfolded via my research of thousands of races contested worldwide over the past 40 plus years.


Bill



Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen with conduit index stamina numbers.

1) Pyro (0.97)
2) Big Brown (0.75)
3) Denis of Cork (0.87)
4) Cool Coal Man (0.96)
5) Court Vision (0.66)
6) Smooth Air (1.38)
7) Colonel John (1.05)
8) El Gato Malo (1.11)
9) Visionaire (0.91)
10) Atoned (1.11)
11) War Pass (0.85)
12) Yankee Bravo (0.55)

[gmj828]

Thanks for chiming in everybody! Excellent viewpoints.

Something that I noticed regarding dosage-which just may be just a matter of chance, is that only 2 horses since 1933 have won the KD with a dosage total of under 16
The freakish Count Fleet in 1943 (everything about him bucks the standard) and Middleground with a 12 in 1950. Additionally since 1933, no horse has won the derby with a combined dosage point total of 8, 10, 14

This year Z Fortune is a 4 and Visionaire is a 12.
El Gato Malo-8
Smooth Air-8
Yankee Bravo-10
Colonel John -14
Denis of Cork-14


Bill from WA-I noticed your index numbers are different from what's listed on pedigreequery.com. How do the formlas differ?

[Bill from WA]

The numbers and methodology posted in this thread are solely designed to get a handle on the stamina influnces for horses trying 10 furlongs or more for the first time. The Index numbers posted with the pedigrees on this site consider both speed and stamina, while the triads offer a thumbnail for optimum racing distances. Extraordinary training regimens and innate athletic ability often overcome the pedigree stamina influences, however, when all are combined you may get a horse like Barbaro.

Bill

[jagger]

Thanks, Bill, for letting me off the hook so easily. So kind but also typical.

gmj828, I would eliminate all those you mentioned with dismal dosage points of GSV's that are so below the norm for Derby winners. Smooth Air, a favorite of many, has desultory scores in all three areas. Yankee Bravo, despite a very good conduit mare score, will not get my interest because of his dismall GSV and dosage points. War Pass has just a so so conduit mare profile but cannot be dismissed with 28 dosage points and a 71 GSV. Court Vision may be a sleeper. Good numbers in all three categories and a string of double copy mares on the dam's side.

Big Brown still gets my vote. It's his to lose.

[gmj828]

Jagger-so Big Brown being lightly raced doesn't factor in for you at all?
Regardless of pedigree history says more seasoning is needed for 10f.
Definitely a scary horse.

I like Court Vision-hopefully he runs well in the Wood.

[jagger]

We only have to look to last year to show that being lightly raced need not be a factor. Street Sense did just fine. His numbers, DP, GSV and CMP are so superior to the others that I have to go with him. And, he has won his three races by a total of 31 lengths!!!!

I like Court Vision too. He has decent numbers but most of all because of his incredible double copy status of the mares on the dam's side. 7 out of 8 are double copies. If trained appropriately, BIG IF, this horse has the potential for incredible stamina.

[Sam]

You have to be careful when you speak of historical numbers for most of these systems as they do change with the times. Remember when the adage was "no horse has won the Derby with a Dosage higher than 4.00" then Strike the Gold came along, only to have his number ratched down when Alydar was made a Chef. I'm not saying I didn't agree with it, just know that what falls within the guidelines today may not have at the time [X-horse] won the Derby.

If you're going to take the systems seriously, be mindful of the 'power stallions' in the pedigree that are not yet chefs (or young stallions with low GSV scores) but might be in the future. Horses like Storm Cat, Dynaformer, Kris S., etc. Today's 4.75 could be tomorrows 3.84 (or whatever the chosen system might be).

[jagger]

Excellent point, sam.

[Sir Barton]

I like to play the exotics does anyone have the data for Hard Spun, Closing Argument, Lion Heart and Proud Citizen. I am looking for any common factors which would give insight to speed which can hold the route.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Sir Barton

Here are the stamina numbers for the horses you asked about.

Hard Spun (0.64)
Closing Argument (0.95)
Lion Heart (1.06)
Proud Citizen (0.97)

Bill

[Sir Barton]

Thank You Bill