help anyone?
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
help anyone?
I'm not as learned as many of you but from a somewhat novice pedigree person i'd say my two early favs to key on top of tri's would be Court Vision & Tale of Ekati. To me they are the best bred horses in the race. Court Vision being out of Weekend Storm (lots of blue blood) and Tale having Sunday Silence and Maplejinsky who was incredible makes it easy for me to come up with those two. I'd love opinions and also recall reading alot about crosses of Phalaris as a good indicator. Big Brown looks great Pedigree wise with the GSV but i can't bet a chalk with 3 career races and a big layoff like that. I think i'll get a good price on both my picks based on Pedigree. Thoughts?
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
I actually like the two horses you picked, but because of their racing, not necessarily their pedigrees.
Pedigrees are important when when you are trying to determine if the horse will be able to do something it has not attempted. once the horse has attempted it, the pedigree is not (as) important anymore.
Take Cowboy Cal, by Giant's Causeway. Giant's Causeway says he should be able to run 2 turns on turf. But what if Cowboy Cal ran in the tropical park derby and came in 8th, and didn't come out injuried? I can't go back in the next race and use cowboy cal and say it's because of his pedigree. he has proven he can't run on turf. if that makes any sense.
I like Tale of Ekati because he won at a mile and an 8th and his stride and running style suggests that he will be fine regardless of how long the race is. he does have a beautiful pedigree however, i agree with you
Pedigrees are important when when you are trying to determine if the horse will be able to do something it has not attempted. once the horse has attempted it, the pedigree is not (as) important anymore.
Take Cowboy Cal, by Giant's Causeway. Giant's Causeway says he should be able to run 2 turns on turf. But what if Cowboy Cal ran in the tropical park derby and came in 8th, and didn't come out injuried? I can't go back in the next race and use cowboy cal and say it's because of his pedigree. he has proven he can't run on turf. if that makes any sense.
I like Tale of Ekati because he won at a mile and an 8th and his stride and running style suggests that he will be fine regardless of how long the race is. he does have a beautiful pedigree however, i agree with you
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
I'm throwing both CV & TofE out as it has nothing to do with pedigree but just the fact that neither have shown to be good enough. The Wood was by far the worst of the major preps IMO. I really think the California horses will make a very strong showing. Kent would be stupid to try & run with Bob Black Jack early but at the same time if left too much alone could be very scary. I think Gayego may be in a very good spot throughout & CJ with a clean run is the horse to beat. If you just looking at pedigrees Adriano is the best bred horse in the race esp at the distance.
CV and TOE
I have to keep Court Vision on the horizon as he has the best conduit mare profile (See Bill from Wa) of any of the starters. Additionally, he has a string of double copy mares on the dam's side and his dam is perhaps the best in the field. Tale of Ekati has nothing exceptional in the way of GSV or CMP and has the disadvantage of being 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector andthrough daughters. This has not worked well in the past. Is this fun or what 
TomFool wrote:I'm throwing both CV & TofE out as it has nothing to do with pedigree but just the fact that neither have shown to be good enough. The Wood was by far the worst of the major preps IMO. I really think the California horses will make a very strong showing. Kent would be stupid to try & run with Bob Black Jack early but at the same time if left too much alone could be very scary. I think Gayego may be in a very good spot throughout & CJ with a clean run is the horse to beat. If you just looking at pedigrees Adriano is the best bred horse in the race esp at the distance.
Adriano is indeed bred well but in the lanes end, he beat nobody really. In the fountain of youth he steadied, so do we throw that out or is it he just hates dirt? Still seems more of a turf horse but i'll throw a few bucks on him for breeding alone. I don't like the California horses. Gayego and black are more bred for speed than stamina and Col John is unproven on regular dirt although i like his running style. I think he will be too short for me to key on top.
Re: CV and TOE
jagger wrote:I have to keep Court Vision on the horizon as he has the best conduit mare profile (See Bill from Wa) of any of the starters. Additionally, he has a string of double copy mares on the dam's side and his dam is perhaps the best in the field. Tale of Ekati has nothing exceptional in the way of GSV or CMP and has the disadvantage of being 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector andthrough daughters. This has not worked well in the past. Is this fun or what
Thanks for your post although i admit i don't know much about the 3x4 to Mr P factor. But i respect that so will likely hit Court Vision a bit more. I do realize he looks like more of a plodder but his last race was a Beyer improvment and i'm expecting another Beyer jump. If we are going by Triads and who is bred to run all day it looks like anak nakal (5-15) could be a nice "under horse and has improving beyers. Any of these can suddenly improve or the light could go on.
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
good point OP..
Take Adriano. if you look at his breeding, it shows he should be able to get a route of ground, on dirt. the derby should be right up his alley.
But he has proven, at least to me, that he likes anything BUT dirt. he has won 3 races.. a maiden, a allowance and the lane's end.. and not one of them were on dirt. two on turf, one on polytrack.
his one race on dirt was so bad, I can't justify him on dirt. I just can't do it, I don't care if he is floating around Churchill in the morning with a halo over his head
couple of other notes or thoughts of interest. I think alot of people are going to be shaking their heads come derby day. everyone is WAYYYY to quick to discount that wood memorial because of the time, and they are making a very, very costly mistake. If you go back and look at that race, and not just that one, the ones for the entire day, the times were about 3 seconds off par for the entire day... a Grade 1 7F race in 1:23 and 4, a Grade 3 7F race in 1:23 and either 2 or 3, a six and a half furlong allowence OC in I want to say 1:18 and change, and of course the wood memorial in 1:53 and change.
I might be wrong, but I'm willing to take a gamble that the track was playing slow that day.
If I concede that much, what else can you NOT like about tale of ekati and court vision? both will get the distance and both have great trainers, and you know neither has been used up to get to the derby.
Take Adriano. if you look at his breeding, it shows he should be able to get a route of ground, on dirt. the derby should be right up his alley.
But he has proven, at least to me, that he likes anything BUT dirt. he has won 3 races.. a maiden, a allowance and the lane's end.. and not one of them were on dirt. two on turf, one on polytrack.
his one race on dirt was so bad, I can't justify him on dirt. I just can't do it, I don't care if he is floating around Churchill in the morning with a halo over his head
couple of other notes or thoughts of interest. I think alot of people are going to be shaking their heads come derby day. everyone is WAYYYY to quick to discount that wood memorial because of the time, and they are making a very, very costly mistake. If you go back and look at that race, and not just that one, the ones for the entire day, the times were about 3 seconds off par for the entire day... a Grade 1 7F race in 1:23 and 4, a Grade 3 7F race in 1:23 and either 2 or 3, a six and a half furlong allowence OC in I want to say 1:18 and change, and of course the wood memorial in 1:53 and change.
I might be wrong, but I'm willing to take a gamble that the track was playing slow that day.
If I concede that much, what else can you NOT like about tale of ekati and court vision? both will get the distance and both have great trainers, and you know neither has been used up to get to the derby.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
I've been betting alot of years. I don't understand people who will bet Big Brown or Pyro. To me i always look for value and neither will offer that. Court Vision and Tale are both beautifuly bred and to me (opinion only) if the AQU track was a bit dead that day that only serves to muscle that horse up and hopefully set them both up for a big churchill run. With the West horses many tend to have trouble with a deep churchill track. If Brown wins so be it. No shock to me as he reminds me of Curlin, but he is out of Belong to me who doesn't scream distance and has too many negative trends going for him. I like my two well bred horses at a price any day. In the Oaks i like Awesome Chic, pure clan and Little belle who to me is best bred by a mile. The favs look tough though. 
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
To me i always look for value and neither will offer that
hallelujah
People ask me who I like? I like who is going to pay me. I don't have a hell of alot of loyality when it comes to horses in horse racing. some horses.. curlin, ghostzapper, for some odd reason air commander...but i like who is going to put money in my pocket.
Big Brown or Pyro will not do that.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
hdembski
I think you meant to say that Big Brown is sired by Boundary, not Belong to Me, both sons of Danzig. At any rate, he gets more than enough stamina from his bottom side. I know betting the favorite is not what most people want to do, however, when that horse has run faster at a mile or longer than any other horse entered, unless he blows the break, at the mile marker he should be on the lead or very close to it. I will take my chances that he is strong enough to get the last quarter mile. If his breeding and feet stop him, I believe he will still be part of the mix, so I agree with the thinking that the trifectas and superfectas are the way to make money using the favorite as a key horse. Leave him out at your own risk, as for me, he will be part of my bets.
DDT
I think you meant to say that Big Brown is sired by Boundary, not Belong to Me, both sons of Danzig. At any rate, he gets more than enough stamina from his bottom side. I know betting the favorite is not what most people want to do, however, when that horse has run faster at a mile or longer than any other horse entered, unless he blows the break, at the mile marker he should be on the lead or very close to it. I will take my chances that he is strong enough to get the last quarter mile. If his breeding and feet stop him, I believe he will still be part of the mix, so I agree with the thinking that the trifectas and superfectas are the way to make money using the favorite as a key horse. Leave him out at your own risk, as for me, he will be part of my bets.
DDT
-
bdw0617
- Darley line
- Posts: 9206
- Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 10:19 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Contact:
big brown's half brother, snake river canyon is a distance specailist...lol, albiet not a very GOOD one, but one nevertheless. his only win in his life was at a mile and an 8th.
small world... snake river canyon ran again trust your luck at churchill, who ran against Street Sense in Street Sense's first race ever.
small world... snake river canyon ran again trust your luck at churchill, who ran against Street Sense in Street Sense's first race ever.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
Right about Boundary, sorry. I've been betting for over 20 years. If someone says Boudary, i'll think turf first. Yes, the Dam side gives him stamina and he may be a freak and win. I simply don't bet chalks and can't ignore derby trends. Win off of 3 races, off a layoff, big field, being knocked around? By the way who has he beaten? The Beyers look great but i can't remember last time Andy Beyer was right about a Derby choice! Plus sorry, when i think dutrow i think, nice trainer at Aqueduct, not a derby trainer. If he wins, congrats. not with my money. I don't make a huge deal about the derby as every race card offers money making value. Anytime i can get regally bred horses like Court Vision and Tale at fat odds i'm all over it. If i lose i lose knowing i did the smart thing. Yes you can make money if you key Brown and catch a shot under, but again, i can't buck such huge trends. If i catch my shots and get horses under like anak nakal who can run all day i'm looking at a new car! If the wood was really a bad race, i got egg on my face and an empty wallet! Love the breeding on little belle and awesome chic for prices in the Oaks, check it out!
hdembski
If I had $1.00 for every blue blood who ran up the track I would not have to wager again. That said, I do not like the 20 post, but I think the 2 hole is much worse, and I believe Big Brown can overcome the lengths he must spot the inside horses by the time they reach the first turn. Last year Curlin had the same trend against him and he managed to finish 3rd after a less than ideal trip. Big Brown is no Curlin, however, he has yet to be tested, and although he has not beaten much, neither have the others, especially the California horses. I have said it before and I'll say it again, just because you get good odds it does not make it a good bet if the horse does not win. I am not a Beyer supporter, but Big Brown's figures indicate that he is the fastest horse in the race, and I for one am very happy that Beyer has tossed Big Brown. I hope the general public also gets off his bandwagon, I'll take 4 or 5 to 1 anytime and with the post position just may get it. Good luck to all.
DDT
If I had $1.00 for every blue blood who ran up the track I would not have to wager again. That said, I do not like the 20 post, but I think the 2 hole is much worse, and I believe Big Brown can overcome the lengths he must spot the inside horses by the time they reach the first turn. Last year Curlin had the same trend against him and he managed to finish 3rd after a less than ideal trip. Big Brown is no Curlin, however, he has yet to be tested, and although he has not beaten much, neither have the others, especially the California horses. I have said it before and I'll say it again, just because you get good odds it does not make it a good bet if the horse does not win. I am not a Beyer supporter, but Big Brown's figures indicate that he is the fastest horse in the race, and I for one am very happy that Beyer has tossed Big Brown. I hope the general public also gets off his bandwagon, I'll take 4 or 5 to 1 anytime and with the post position just may get it. Good luck to all.
DDT