Travers

Dave C · Postby **Dave C** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 7:34 am

Colonel John was my pick in the Derby and I'm not going to give up on him being able to run on the dirt just because of a bad trip there. He'll be at a pretty decent price here so I'll stick with him.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:00 pm

i really have no clue. I have been studying this race all day, because it's going to pay big whoever hits, and I can't figure it out.

I am intrigued by Tres Borrachos, he has decidedly good form and hasn't ran bad at all on dirt.

he showed a vast improvement in his last race and if he can run that same race on dirt, which his pedigree says he should, I think he can win it.

So I have Tres Borrachos on top.... I went back and watched harlem rockers POWS and i'm not impressed at all. Not by him or mambo in seattle.

I will go with Tres Borrachos, Macho Again/Pyro for 2nd, Cool Coal Man for 3rd and Tale of Ekati for 4th.

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:22 pm

Dave C wrote:Colonel John was my pick in the Derby and I'm not going to give up on him being able to run on the dirt just because of a bad trip there. He'll be at a pretty decent price here so I'll stick with him.

Can those CA horses overcome the change of surfaces and the steroids too. I'd hate to put a lot of money on it. the change of surface will cause change of stride for which they've yet to conditioned (probably). might be asking too much. we'll see.

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:23 pm

[quote="bdw0617"]it' the flying spegetti monster

I would have sworn that was Joe Biden. Give us your final decision BEFORE the race.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:27 pm

i just did.

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:39 pm

Tres Berrachos it is. I'm going with Colonel John.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:54 pm

the deciding factor for me on TB was that he is double the odds as Colonel JOhn, even though he beat him.. handily.. the last time they raced.

15 to 1 on a horse who who won a grade 2 prep for this race, I'll take all day long and twice on sundays.

ratherrapid · Postby **ratherrapid** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:12 pm

ya. nice odds. might be stretching it though to say "handily". Barely might be more accurate. TB without steroids I fear may well be a 15-1 horse.

oliverstoned · Postby **oliverstoned** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:13 pm

I'll go with a Macho Uno box

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:35 pm

ratherrapid wrote:ya. nice odds. might be stretching it though to say "handily". Barely might be more accurate. TB without steroids I fear may well be a 15-1 horse.

you didn't see the race ovbiously. they could have ran around again and TB would have had him beat

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:37 pm

TB
Pyro/Macho Again
Cool Coal man
Tale of Ekati

I played a .10 cent Super with Pyro/Macho Again/ Cool Coal Man/ Harlem Rocker because well.. it's 10 cents.

also put a nice amount on Tres B's nose.

RuffianT21 · Postby **RuffianT21** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:23 pm

Shoot... Well, Bdw, I was completely with you on the Tres Borrachos train. 34-1?!?! I'd take those odds any day. But what happened? He was in perfect position, and then fell back so quick it made me wonder if he was injured. I hope he's okay...

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:32 pm

1. Great handicapping ratherrapid. you nailed it. Tip of the hat to ya.\

2. Alot of people don't understand what I mean by very rarley do I bet on the best horse. This is one of those situtations. Before today I had not even considered betting on him.. I wasn't going to bet, becuase if I did it was going to be what I call a defult bet, meaning I chose the horse who had the less strikes against him insteaof who I thought was the best horse. I don't do that. But 35 to 1 on a horse who won the swaps the previous race who is bred to like the dirt and is on the upswing? I'll take it ALL day long and smile when I lose , if I lose because I know if I make those bets all year long, I'll be sitting pretty. Shoot last year tomorrow I hit Student Council in the pacific Classic at 23 to 1 using the same logic. on a pure talent bet, none of these horses are mile and a quarter horses, so you can't really say who was the most talented out of them. if you put them all at their perferred distance over their perferred surface, it probably is colonel john at a mile and an 8th on cushion. actually I'd go with PYro at a mile and a 16th.

I think Tres got injured, he literary just fell off the bottom of the map in the race and was done in the backstretch and I mean DONE.

I was actually encourged at the first turn, he was gliding over the track so he took well to it and had PERFECT position in the backstretch

RuffianT21 · Postby **RuffianT21** » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:46 pm

Agreed... I really thought he was going to win when I saw what a great trip he was having.

And I agree with you completely on the betting. Colonel John ended up being the favorite, I think, and Tres Borrachos was ***34-1***. He was a great bet, no matter how he finished.

Of course, ratherrapid's the one with money in the pocket. :wink: