Single "Most Important" To you

imnumberjuan · Postby **imnumberjuan** » Sat Sep 13, 2008 9:30 pm

Des - interesting question.

2 year old maiden races - the sharpest works. Not neccisarily blackletter but sharp (I define sharp as a top ten or 15 of the total works posted at a half mile or up) - 2 year old stakes races - performance shown in breaking the maiden or N2L race leading into it.

Cheap claimers - class of company kept/conditions ran with - and if that is unrevealing - jockey trainer combinations - especially in a "nothing" race.

Somthing I also like to use is post postion - especially say on Bull rings - the outside in a sprint may not be a disadvantage if the horse has speed.

Now - a quirky one I learned from my mentor that works at getting the 5/2 or 3-1 shot consistently is using the last three Beyers - as long as the conditions/distance/track conditions are the same - though it is weak against the class dropper (open $30 000 claimers to $5k t goes to peices pretty quick).

Another way is the old "pick it up and run with it" - usually an older claimer who gets his two to three wins a year ... you pick him up with say $20 win, if he wins, you cash and don't bet him for 2-3 races, if he doesn't win you bet $20 to win again... he doesn't win again, you raise it $50 win and repeat (my mentor learned this way from some shady characters in the late 50's hahahaha) until he wins - but you have to be aware it may be time to cut bait after the 5th or 6th race... though if you catch him prior to that you drop him ...

I think it just depends on the race, myself I avoid certain races (the last race of the day with 3% winning jockeys and trainers at the big circuts Southern California, New York etc)

geowarrior · Postby **geowarrior** » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:59 am

I have to agree with Bill from WA. In maiden races it's breeding. Otherwise, recent form.

Des · Postby **Des** » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:52 am

I tend to agree also that if you are looking at a maiden race you will look at breeding and or the work pattern. However after they have started and have shown their potential we tend to look at form and other pattern. I was asking that question to show that breeding seems not to be the first thing that comes to mind if you ask that question. However it is very important in racing and you are at times advised not to breed a horse because it has no breeding. Just a thought that was going through my head. Good to see the responses.

imnumberjuan · Postby **imnumberjuan** » Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:03 pm

Des,

A thought that went through my head reading the PP's for the Belmont was "You know, Da Tara is out of Tiznow, seems to me he could run all day..." :lol:

(I laugh about it now, I was ticked to see the price ... I was going to pick one horse and bet it to win other than Big Brown in the race).

I think breeding can go out the window, especially in bottom claimers, especially the 10 starts by the end of the year racing for the NW1 purses.

A weird thing I am notcing now is watching Hastings Park, I am starting to utter the phrase "I remember his mother" in the maiden races.

geowarrior · Postby **geowarrior** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:08 pm

I also was kicking myself after the Belmont. I noticed Da Tara was lone speed and actually went so far as to point it out to someone else, but didn't act on it myself.

imnumberjuan · Postby **imnumberjuan** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:29 pm

geo,

my thoughts going in were some peice of crap was going to upset the applecart, and to me he looked most likely.

patrick · Postby **patrick** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:57 pm

When the top trainers in the country look at a race (especially which stake to run in) their main factor is how the horse looks on the "rag" sheets. See www.thesheets.com .It not only gives the best hard numbers to look at, but also has a remarkable ability to identify horses who are on the improve and those who likely "bounce".

Last race highest Beyer figures win over 30% next out. Key races are another excellent tool.

I have never been a big fan of George Smith because he seems to use this site as a virtual commercial. He is always touting his good days and rarely mentions his bad ones.

That being said, I think his GSV score is an excellent tool in races dominated by first time starters.

With horses making their first few starts (especially their first) I take a hard look at their auction price. If you have a Storm Cat firsty who sold for 75,000 as a yearling, you can expect the horse probably has some issues.

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sun Sep 28, 2008 7:52 pm

I'm always looking at conditions. I want to spot my horses against the worst bunch I can find. But to get an advantage one must be knowledgeable of attrition and the ebb and flow value of stock racing in his region.

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:39 pm

I'm always looking at conditions. I want to spot my horses against the worst bunch I can find. But to get an advantage one must be knowledgeable of attrition and the ebb and flow value of stock racing in the region.

imnumberjuan · Postby **imnumberjuan** » Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:55 pm

One thing I always keep in mind is "Horses can't read the tote board" :lol:

majxmom · Postby **majxmom** » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:20 pm

If I'm there live at the racetrack, the single most important thing to me is how they look in the paddock. Many a longshot can be spotted by how they are striding around in the parade ring. It doesn't work for me on video, though. You just can't get a good enough look at them. Except for Curlin. He seems to stand head and shoulders above the crowd on any video.

Elusive City · Postby **Elusive City** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:03 am

Established form dirt horses--how the last race was run compared to the class the horse was facing.

Established form turf horses--the ability to quicken in the stretch (final fraction)

limited form and first run horses--breeding. Both sire and dam.

madelyn · Postby **madelyn** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:55 am

I also look at the trainer.

There are some "trainers" that couldn't train a dog to pee on a hydrant.

In my opinion, ALL trainers go through streaks - ups and downs - when the horses in their care all peak in the same time frame, or all get achy and needing time off. There are up and comers who hit a streak as well as big names that have been in the slumps at an away track forever because whatever assistant is running that trainer's string at that particular meet is a chump.

It takes a VERY good horse to outrun a bad trainer.

Ill-bred · Postby **Ill-bred** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:01 am

ABILITY

My best bets are a result of evaluating talent and finding mismatches.

valjoe · Postby **valjoe** » Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:43 am

Afew months ago I was at S. Anita and decided to experiment and bet on a race by just looking the horses from the knee down. Mainly the way horses were shod(proper angle, balance),but also watching the stride so I hit the trifecta. There was a horse in that race whos feet look very bad overgrown the shoes and the shoes looked loose, he run last.