I am posing a question to the Forum..... When you are looking at a race trying to spot a winner...or Runner for that purpose ..What is that Single most important thing to you. Remember I said Single.. I know there are a lots of things to look at However I'm asking for that Special or Single most important think to you.....
I'm just curious
Single "Most Important" To you
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FoolishPleasure
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For me, it's recent class (i.e. who they ran well against most recently).
For example, yesterday both Salute the Count ($20.80 win) in the Quick Call at Saratoga and True to Tradition ($12.60 win) in the Turf Monster at Philly had recently finished within a length of First Defence ($17.60) who crushed the G1 Forego on Saturday. All things considered, it seemed like a good reason to like them.
For example, yesterday both Salute the Count ($20.80 win) in the Quick Call at Saratoga and True to Tradition ($12.60 win) in the Turf Monster at Philly had recently finished within a length of First Defence ($17.60) who crushed the G1 Forego on Saturday. All things considered, it seemed like a good reason to like them.
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bdw0617
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for me it's how a horse wins. I have actually bet a horse going from a 5k claimer to an allowence race before because he did it with the most ease possible. i won't fault a horse for the company he keeps, but I will hold him accountable to how he treats his company.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
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Bill from WA
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Giacomo_05
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Based on the graded circuits, I try to gauge whether the horse is at one of four stages:
1) a rapidly improving horse with a high ceiling with his career (see Mast Track, Well Armed)
2) a consistent horse who may not win often but has a steady record of finishing in the money (Wanderin Boy, Surf Cat, Grasshopper)
3) a horse on the downside of his career-- no matter how great a horse was, unless they're retired right at their prime either for stud or due to injury (see Heatseeker) a racehorse is naturally going to decline in speed or stamina just like any other athlete (I would place Magna Graduate, A.P. Arrow & Awesome Gem here)
4) a wildcard who you can't quite place in the above categories and you really have no idea how that horse might fare even though they might have had excellent careers. (Right now I would place Student Council & Tiago in this category-both are multiple Gr I winners who might be near the end, but might also have a couple good starts left in them.) I would only place small bets here.
-Subcategories would be consistent winners who are actually advanced in age (Commentator) or the small category of the best horses in racing (Curlin, Zenyatta, BB, Ginger Punch, etc.)
1) a rapidly improving horse with a high ceiling with his career (see Mast Track, Well Armed)
2) a consistent horse who may not win often but has a steady record of finishing in the money (Wanderin Boy, Surf Cat, Grasshopper)
3) a horse on the downside of his career-- no matter how great a horse was, unless they're retired right at their prime either for stud or due to injury (see Heatseeker) a racehorse is naturally going to decline in speed or stamina just like any other athlete (I would place Magna Graduate, A.P. Arrow & Awesome Gem here)
4) a wildcard who you can't quite place in the above categories and you really have no idea how that horse might fare even though they might have had excellent careers. (Right now I would place Student Council & Tiago in this category-both are multiple Gr I winners who might be near the end, but might also have a couple good starts left in them.) I would only place small bets here.
-Subcategories would be consistent winners who are actually advanced in age (Commentator) or the small category of the best horses in racing (Curlin, Zenyatta, BB, Ginger Punch, etc.)
I was really hoping for some more response but Oh well.... I have heard this question asked a few time and I have never heard someone say " Breeding" Now think about it. We put so much emphasis in breeding, yet when we are looking for a runner that's almost the last thing on our minds...Think about it... I consider myself a fanatic at breeding, love to look at that, however for some reason we look beyond that. Yes I know we look at the overall picture, however its just that emphasis we put in breeding and as it turns out we look other things first...Just my take on it
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Bill from WA
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Hi
Breeding is very important when attempting to predict what a horse might do when trying something for the first time, but after they have established their aptitudinal capabilities you have to look elsewhere. Class is important, but it is also difficult to evaluate (one play I love is MSW dropping to Maiden claiming). Once a history is established, I feel that an evaluation of how the race figures to be run (pace) is the key. This is another area to evaluate class. Will cheap speed soften up the speed of a classier individual and set the race up for a closer, or will the class horse prevail and put away the cheap speed early on and draw out? Another key is to have knowledge of the way trainers spot their horses, and when a switch to a certain rider signals that a horse is ready to fire. I do use my conduit profiles when evaluating how a horse may perform when trying something new, or is a first time starter.
Bill
Breeding is very important when attempting to predict what a horse might do when trying something for the first time, but after they have established their aptitudinal capabilities you have to look elsewhere. Class is important, but it is also difficult to evaluate (one play I love is MSW dropping to Maiden claiming). Once a history is established, I feel that an evaluation of how the race figures to be run (pace) is the key. This is another area to evaluate class. Will cheap speed soften up the speed of a classier individual and set the race up for a closer, or will the class horse prevail and put away the cheap speed early on and draw out? Another key is to have knowledge of the way trainers spot their horses, and when a switch to a certain rider signals that a horse is ready to fire. I do use my conduit profiles when evaluating how a horse may perform when trying something new, or is a first time starter.
Bill
Last edited by Bill from WA on Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Des
It probably would generate more responses if you were more specific, claiming races, allowance races, maiden races, stakes races, turf, dirt or synthetic. Certain most important factors are only the most important in a specific situation, example, if you have a route race at one mile or longer and one entrant has speed while none of the others has shown early foot, it is usually a good bet on the speed horse because he/she will be able to set the pace without pressure and could very well steal the race, therefore, to me, the most important factor in any route race is who has speed and will it be contested.
DDT
It probably would generate more responses if you were more specific, claiming races, allowance races, maiden races, stakes races, turf, dirt or synthetic. Certain most important factors are only the most important in a specific situation, example, if you have a route race at one mile or longer and one entrant has speed while none of the others has shown early foot, it is usually a good bet on the speed horse because he/she will be able to set the pace without pressure and could very well steal the race, therefore, to me, the most important factor in any route race is who has speed and will it be contested.
DDT
DDT,
The answer would probably change only if I had specified a Turf race or maybe a Maiden race. But then again why do you need to make specific mention of what type of race it is. One should be able to say brreding is important especially when it said that a horse usally need good breeding in order qualify as a runner or performer. Don't get me wrong I think breeding is important as I had mentioned, but I just don't get that answer when I hear the question asked. Try if on your own and see the response that you get.
The answer would probably change only if I had specified a Turf race or maybe a Maiden race. But then again why do you need to make specific mention of what type of race it is. One should be able to say brreding is important especially when it said that a horse usally need good breeding in order qualify as a runner or performer. Don't get me wrong I think breeding is important as I had mentioned, but I just don't get that answer when I hear the question asked. Try if on your own and see the response that you get.
Des
Well, I guess the answer is breeding is the most important factor when dealing with first time starters and first time turfers, once a running pattern and class level has been established breeding may not be that important as a handicapping tool, to each his/her own, you asked the question I tried to be helpful.
DDT
Well, I guess the answer is breeding is the most important factor when dealing with first time starters and first time turfers, once a running pattern and class level has been established breeding may not be that important as a handicapping tool, to each his/her own, you asked the question I tried to be helpful.
DDT
I was at DM a coupla of weeks ago and by the 3rd race it became apparent Beyers were the single most important piece of info for that day, minus the last race of first time starters. I played the sire for that one. That was the single most important piece of info, successful too.
In general I'd say you have to have a good arsenal of info at hand, use it all and reassess as conditions change. Having your laptop with you might be #1.
In general I'd say you have to have a good arsenal of info at hand, use it all and reassess as conditions change. Having your laptop with you might be #1.
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ratherrapid
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Des wrote:I was really hoping for some more response but Oh well.... I have heard this question asked a few time and I have never heard someone say " Breeding" Now think about it. We put so much emphasis in breeding, yet when we are looking for a runner that's almost the last thing on our minds...Think about it... I consider myself a fanatic at breeding, love to look at that, however for some reason we look beyond that. Yes I know we look at the overall picture, however its just that emphasis we put in breeding and as it turns out we look other things first...Just my take on it
Des, there is one handicapping scenario where breeding becomes relevant. if you have a race where the entire field is modestly bred, all other handicapping factors fail to identify a clear winner, AND there is one obviously well bred horse compared to the rest who looks on paper at least as good as the rest, then you may assume that the well bred horse might outclass this field, and you put down your $2.00.
Handicappers play different things, and you may get 50 different answers to your question. Here is THE answer, lol: If handicappers spent as much time watching the training as they do reading the form for most races they'd be far far more successful. Horses in general run to their recent training--breezes, gallops, races. You identify the horses that are appropriately conditioned for this race and out of that group you pick the fastest with the best recent form. If there's a dropper in the race, that's always the wild card, but if its an unconditioned dropper you throw it out.