Early Breeders Cup Thoughts

[TomFool]

I know its before pre entries even and some of theses may not even be in these spots but here is how I see things as of now in the pick 6 races.
Mile
Ravens Pass- looks to be the horse to beat
Goldikova- been the year of the 3 year old filly in Europe,a mile is her distance
Whatsthescript- has got better & better this year will have to improve again to contend
Horse I dont like
Kip Deville- has done nothing wrong just think he will be overbet & due a bad race IMO

Juv
Square Eddie- his romp @ Keeneland sold me & I'm just not that crazy about any one else. I'll be all in with him in the Pick 6 barring anything strange between now & then

Juv Turf
Bittel Road- versatile with a very nice turn of foot, will be his race to lose
Skipadate- gotta love his gameness, he is a racehorse
Grand Adventure- nice colt getting better

Sprint
Street Boss- prob fav, you cant leave him out but maybe 3/4 is a bit short for him
Fabulous Strike- think he may be the speed of the speed & may be the most talented horse in the race, very dangerous if he takes to poly
Lewis Michael- like Street Boss 3/4 may be a bit short for him but in career form & cant be left out
In Summation- may be a cut below top 3 but he may get first jump on the pace & 3/4 is his preferred distance
Horse I dont like
Midnight Lute- defending champ will take some play & I just dont think he is the same horse of last year & his poly form is very lacking

Turf
Eagle Mountain- trained by Mike DeKock & by RofG thats got my attention & he should relish the firm going & may be sitting of a huge effort after solid first start of the year, like him lots
Red Rocks- underrated & may be better odds than he should be loves a firm turf, very playable
Duke of Marmalade- too good to leave out even after lackluster Arc, pedigree suggest he may like firm going, be careful here though at short odds as he may be on his way down
Horse I dont like
Soldier of Fortune- prob fav or 2nd choice & looks to be beatable based on preference of give in turf

Classic
Go Between- solid form race seems it may set right up for him in getting the jump on Curlin
Well Armed- could very well take this group wire to wire in just thinking about who will probley be in the race, dangerous
Curlin- still think he may be a bit over the top but prob could still win this with with a less than steller effort, dont think the surface change is that big a deal as he is truely a class standout
Henrythenavigator- think he will show up in here rather than mile with this being a rather weak race minus Curlin & stands a legit chance better than Duke IMO or you may see both in here, I think either will either be right there or nowhere at the end.
Horse I dont like
Casino Drive- think he will be overbet & while he is talented I just cant see him competing with this kind at this point

Thoughts?

[Twingirl]

Midnight Lute- defending champ will take some play & I just dont think he is the same horse of last year & his poly form is very lacking

Midnight Lute is doing amazing workouts on synth....including a *scorcher* bullet workout on the Pro-Ride on Monday. 5F @ in 56.80 seconds, the fastest of 52 recorded works at the distance.

Turf
Eagle Mountain- trained by Mike DeKock & by RofG thats got my attention & he should relish the firm going & may be sitting of a huge effort after solid first start of the year, like him lots
Red Rocks- underrated & may be better odds than he should be loves a firm turf, very playable
Duke of Marmalade- too good to leave out even after lackluster Arc, pedigree suggest he may like firm going, be careful here though at short odds as he may be on his way down
Horse I dont like
Soldier of Fortune- prob fav or 2nd choice & looks to be beatable

I'm going with the 'freshest' horse here which is Eagle Mountain.
Red Rocks, I dunno...I think he is on the downswing.
Duke of Marmalade and Soldier of Fortune just ran big races recently, so I'm going to bet on them being *tired*.

Classic
Go Between- solid form race seems it may set right up for him in getting the jump on Curlin
Well Armed- could very well take this group wire to wire in just thinking about who will probley be in the race, dangerous
Curlin- still think he may be a bit over the top but prob could still win this with with a less than steller effort, dont think the surface change is that big a deal as he is truely a class standout
Henrythenavigator- think he will show up in here rather than mile with this being a rather weak race minus Curlin & stands a legit chance better than Duke IMO or you may see both in here, I think either will either be right there or nowhere at the end.
Horse I dont like
Casino Drive- think he will be overbet & while he is talented I just cant see him competing with this kind at this point

This is so hard!

As of today my 4: Well Armed, Go Between, Tiago, , Curlin
.
I'm putting Well Armed first, on a hunch......is out of Tiznow, who is the only back-to-back (2x) winner of the Classic.

Both Tiago and WellArmed hit the board (2nd/1st) on SA's Pro-Ride in the Goodwood Stakes (G1). Okay, Tiago was a length behind Well Armed but he had a terrible trip!

Hard to leave out Colonel John. He is working bullets since the Travers and he is fresh. But Gomez got off him to ride Go Between, and Gomez piloted CJ to his last 2 victories, so now I'm not sure.

IF Casino Drive was at the top of his form, I think he could kill here, but I don't think this is his year, because he is not at the top of his form.

Going against Henry....but will have to research more. Trainer didn't want to race him in the mile because of the 2-turns. Henry is a mile specialist.

[bdw0617]

I know its before pre entries even and some of theses may not even be in these spots but here is how I see things as of now in the pick 6 races.
Mile
Ravens Pass- looks to be the horse to beat
Goldikova- been the year of the 3 year old filly in Europe,a mile is her distance
Whatsthescript- has got better & better this year will have to improve again to contend
Horse I dont like
Kip Deville- has done nothing wrong just think he will be overbet & due a bad race IMO

Juv
Square Eddie- his romp @ Keeneland sold me & I'm just not that crazy about any one else. I'll be all in with him in the Pick 6 barring anything strange between now & then

Juv Turf
Bittel Road- versatile with a very nice turn of foot, will be his race to lose
Skipadate- gotta love his gameness, he is a racehorse
Grand Adventure- nice colt getting better

Sprint
Street Boss- prob fav, you cant leave him out but maybe 3/4 is a bit short for him
Fabulous Strike- think he may be the speed of the speed & may be the most talented horse in the race, very dangerous if he takes to poly
Lewis Michael- like Street Boss 3/4 may be a bit short for him but in career form & cant be left out
In Summation- may be a cut below top 3 but he may get first jump on the pace & 3/4 is his preferred distance
Horse I dont like
Midnight Lute- defending champ will take some play & I just dont think he is the same horse of last year & his poly form is very lacking

Turf
Eagle Mountain- trained by Mike DeKock & by RofG thats got my attention & he should relish the firm going & may be sitting of a huge effort after solid first start of the year, like him lots
Red Rocks- underrated & may be better odds than he should be loves a firm turf, very playable
Duke of Marmalade- too good to leave out even after lackluster Arc, pedigree suggest he may like firm going, be careful here though at short odds as he may be on his way down
Horse I dont like
Soldier of Fortune- prob fav or 2nd choice & looks to be beatable based on preference of give in turf

Classic
Go Between- solid form race seems it may set right up for him in getting the jump on Curlin
Well Armed- could very well take this group wire to wire in just thinking about who will probley be in the race, dangerous
Curlin- still think he may be a bit over the top but prob could still win this with with a less than steller effort, dont think the surface change is that big a deal as he is truely a class standout
Henrythenavigator- think he will show up in here rather than mile with this being a rather weak race minus Curlin & stands a legit chance better than Duke IMO or you may see both in here, I think either will either be right there or nowhere at the end.
Horse I dont like
Casino Drive- think he will be overbet & while he is talented I just cant see him competing with this kind at this point

Thoughts?

i think you hit the nail on th head with square eddie.

I dont' think he's the next curlin or anything, but i'm just not crazy about anything else.


duke is running in the classic is he not?



I think curlin is very, very beatable this year. and i love him to death.

i'll give you a sneak suprise pick that will mess around and win and you will say "man, why didn't i think of that"... grand couturier. he's been downright brilliant at times this year, he is without question classy enoguh to win but is probably the most underrated hrose in america.

[TomFool]

I do know Midnight Lute has been very impressive in the morning @ SA but that is typical Baffert training & he is a defending champion so him working out like crazy is no suprise. This is just off memory but I think his only other start on syn before this years flat performance was also a cut below his dirt form & remember when he ran soo fast last year @ Mon that track was very sloppy and other races were given super high beyers & sheet #s as well (Corinthian, War Pass etc). I just think things are highly stacked against him & will throw him out but I would not think someone is crazy for using him.
I just read where Duke & Henry will be going in the Classic which will make things very interesting. I agree BDW that I think Curlin is very beatable but behind him you really can make a case for many. I love Danehill & am always intrigued by the Euros & it may be too much for me to leave Duke out even if my first thought is he may be a bit over the top after a long year. Whoever Murtagh chooses will be interesting as Johnny V (one of my least fav bigtime riders) will get the mount on the other. With Curlin vs the unknown it will be very interesting & exciting & may be the prime time to go with a horse like Go Between or Well Armed.
Col John knocked me out of the pick 4 & 5k on Travers day (I had Mambo in Seattle) so if he beats me again I will hate him forever but I just dont think he is good enough.
BDW I too agree on Grand Courier & with the shaky Duke out of the Turf he would move up to third on my list. He is in very good form & from memory seems to handle any kind of turf cond well. He could prove stong in there.
It will be fun to see all the pre entries & see how everyone looks on paper together tommorrow. I am currently in Alaska so this will probley be my main outlet for BC talk as you mention race here & everyone thinks Iditarod & yes there is plenty of snow outside now with more to come over the next 10 days little different than Arkansas & Kentucky even in Oct.

[bdw0617]

here is an angle for ya...

i bet againsat anything coolmore sends over here. they have a horrid record on breeders cup day.

here is another.... remember last year when everyone was laughing at baffert when lute broke the track record at 7F in a morning workout?

what did he do the next race? ho humm.. run a 124 beyer.


well.. dont' look now but he just went 5 in 56 and change.

[TomFool]

I can agree with you about Coolmore as it seems they just like to throw their stars out in the deep end over here in trying to prove they have a superhorse they almost did it with Giants Causeway but failed miserably ever other time with top class horses Galieo, George etc but this year is a bit different with the surface & the main reason I think no Danehill has tore it up over here before is because of our unforgiving deep dirt tracks & the fact that most Danehills are back in their knees & cant hold up training & racing over that. With this being the first BC on synth i think it may open minds next year & down the road with runners from this unbelieveable producing sire line to come over here and compete in our top races more often.
With Midnight Lute I see where you are coming from but this horse always seems to work a hole in the wind just like alot of Bafferts horses. Yes he has run a couple of superhorse races for Baffert but I dont think you can really pinpoint what he tells you in the morning to the afternoon as he too was breathing fire before the Pat OBrien @ Del Mar & finished 10th of 12 & that was his only race of the year in which he has had hind end problems which is also very hard to pinpoint & correct in horses. Everything may come together for him in which case he would beat this field which I think is a better group than last year even minus Lewis Micahel to the dirt mile & you may get a decent price but not one that justifies his pros vs cons IMO but thats why they run the race to see whos opinion is correct.

[hpkingjr]

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/

Here is a site that may be of interest. He did not have a good 2007 but with the mud in New Jersey there was an excuse.

[TomFool]

After spending a few hours in looking at the pre entries in the form I have changed my mind abit about a few races.
Mile
Without Raven's Pass undoubtly Goldikova becomes the one to beat. Whatsthescript is a clear cut second choice for me. Of couse this race can be all about the trip so post position becomes very important. This is one of the weaker miles I have seen in a while.
Juv
I still love Square Eddie but I cannot pass on who may be the best 2 year old in Europe in Bushranger against a lackluster bunch of American horses. If SE did that @ Keeneland just think how Bushranger could destroy theses. Going 2 deep
Juv Turf
I am really now leaning more towards the Canadian pair of Skipadate & Grand Adventure while not throwing out Bittel Road or Westphalia. I really think Skipadate may end being a nice price & can turn the tables & be the horse to bet straight up in this race. I think Westphalia will be the fav & will either win or be nowhere. This is a much better race than the Juv IMO.
Sprint
The more I look at this field the more I think Street Boss should get the pace & trip to win it. Alot will depend on the draw but in having to single in P6 or P4's he looks like one of the better bets to me.
Turf
I think this is the hardest & may be the best race of the day. You have many coming in off of by far career efforts which are hard for me to handicap. I would normaly just through them all out but I'm afraid one may get me but I honestly dont think Out Of Control or Red Giant are good enough. Grand Couturier is hard to leave out. I still love Eagle Mountain in this spot but also am thinking Conduit may be getting really good. I forgot Red Rocks has been with Henning, which turns him off to me a bit even though he seems to love a firm going & makes me second guess more about how Soldier of Fortune may also not hate it in also being by Galileo & he is for sure classy. Winchester I think is in too deep but he would not be a shocker & dont forget Better Talk Now fot the exoctics. This race is tough but right now I'm leaning towards Eagle Mountain & Conduit.
Classic
I think Curlin will go off less than even money & while I would not leave him off a Pick 6 or Pick 4 I do have a feeling he will get beat but the question is by who? Whoever Murtagh chooses between Henrythenavigator & Duke of Marmalade will go a long way into my final decision. I honestly think he will choose Henry & I actually prefer Duke so I'm really crossed. The English bookmakers last check had Henry @ I think 6-1 & Duke @ 10-1 & Ravens Pass @ 8-1. I am starting to think Go Between may get too much play & I honestly think he vs Curlin is a mismatch so I may get off him & go with a Euro I just dont know which one yet. In the P4 I may just go 5 deep in here.
Thought?

[bdw0617]

well shoot i will play too.


right now if i had to make a wager, not who I think is the best horse in the race, this is what I would do


F and M Sprint:Dream Rush, assuming she was 8 to 1. WAY too much back class to ignore. was the odds on pick to win this race last year. hasn't done aything really worng besides being off for over half the year

Juve Fillies: I can't bet against Stardom Bound

Filly and Mare Turf: I think pound for pound Folk Opera might be the best filly in this race, she toyed with alot of these same horses 2 weeks ago at woodbine. But I think Dynaforce will over the most bang for the buck. she's the best american turf filly IMHO and I can see her going off as the 4th or even 5th betting choice. that's some good value

Ladies Classic: HOw in the world can you justify betting against Zenyatta?

What I will do is play horizontally because you are basically making a pick 3 a pick 2. Actually, it's a pick 1, becuase I think Stardom Bound is a lock. So I can go pretty deep in the 2YO filly race



Marthaon: this will be the most loopsided race of them all. you have a bunch of has been or no names american horses running against a horse that is a world class european horse in Sixties Icon. Sixties Icon will utterly destroy this field. I'm calling by 7 or 8


Dirt Mile: last year corinthian IMNHO was a lock. this year i have no clue. I said lewis michael but that's what i call a defult bet and default bets are the worst bets you can make. this is a long shot race waiting to happen.

if the odds are right, i'm going to go against everything i believe in and say Surf Cat. For the simple reason that he's the most talented hrose in the field when push comes to shove.


MIle: this is a tougher race than you would think. Very deep. The fav is ovbious as tomfool eluded to. but Kip Deville can sneak up and win it, and I LOVE Daytona on the shortern up. he's tough as nails at 10F and you bring him down to 8?


Juvenille: I"m not sold on Bushranger. First of all, Coolmore has a horrid record in breeders cup races. but as far as te horse, his two biggest wins, both grade 1's but still, are for all intents and purposes, 6F races. it's the american version of taking the winner of the Saratoga Special and the hopeful and making him the breeders cup fav. i'm out on that.

Square Eddie not only hproved he can get the distance, he wants MORE.


Juve Turf: Much better than last year. Great Adventure is a good one, very good, but he might be more of a sprinter if you look at his race. he had to hold on for dear life to get the mile, and now we are going 8.5. and when I say hold on for dear life, 1 more stride and he would have lost. he's a deep closer on a track that has tight turns wheras woodbine has that very long straight away.

I'll come back on this one


Sprint: I have a theory.. if you can find what you think is the best horse, regardless, at great odds, yout ake it.

Midnight Lute IMHO is not only the best sprinter in this race, when he's 100% healthy, he might be the best sprinter of this decade.

If he's healthy and can literarly get his ass in the starting gate, you can put it on the board. but that's easier said than done. espically him getting in the gate.

if he runs anything like he did last year, it's game over for the competittion. and you aren't goinng to have to take 5 to 2 either.

at 6 or 8 to one he's worth the gamble if you ask me.

Turf: I'm going to go with Grand Coutier as a value play. he's VERY good and VERY underrated.

if Red Giant is over 10 to 1 i'm in. for crying out loud he broke the world record the last time he touched this track.


Classic: I think it's a 3 horse race. the track really, really favors closers. so throw out well armed, go between, while not a front runner, is more of a tweaner.

I see this between Curlin, Champs who while won't win, would not suprise me in the least bit to see him get some money, Casino Drive and Duke, as well as Tiago.

I don't see anyone beating curlin the more I look at it. it would take a horse that could come around hte stretch and out kick curlin. don't see that happening. Duke and Henry are used tot hose long straigtwaways in europe. not only that.. I just don't think they are bette rthan curlin on this surface.

Tiago should me a hell of alot in the goodwood. that late kick is back and if that race was 10F instead of 9 he wins.


Casino Drive is good. but just how good is the question. he will be there, there is no doubt in my mind he will be there.

if i had to go three deep I would go curlin, Casino and Tiago