Sentient Flight Group F and M Sprint

[bdw0617]

Sentient Flight Group
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Total Purse $1,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up, Fillies & Mares
7 Furlongs
Friday, October 24, 2008

Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Magnificience David Flores 20-1
2 Indyanne Robby Albarado 12-1
3 Intangaroo Alonso Quinonez 9-2
4 Lady Sprinter Rene Douglas 15-1
5 Indian Blessing John Velazquez 2-1
6 Zaftig Rafael Bejarano 8-1
7 Dream Rush Kent Desormeaux 20-1
8 Tiz Elemental Joel Rosario 20-1
9 Dearest Trickski Mike Smith 15-1
10 Miraculous Miss Ramon Dominguez 20-1
11 Jazzy (ARG) Alan Garcia 20-1
12 Ventura Garrett Gomez 5-1
13 Tizzy's Tune Alex Solis 30-1
14 La Tee Jon Court 30-1

[bdw0617]

just broke it down.. Inidan blessing I can't put my money on her.

1. she got beat by Zafting earlier this year.. pretty handily at that. zafting has been out but is still a very good one.

2. indian blessing while isn't bad, has raced on synethics and isn't the same brilliance. not close.

the best beti n this race as i see it is dearest trisksi. if i were making the m/l i would put her at 9/2, no higher than 6 to 1 and that's very high. she beat pretty much all of these, she's won her last two ON SYNETHICS.
I can't see her staying anywhere near 15/1.. she's drop in half, and that's still a very good bet.

Mag's is a suker bet, as much as I love her. look at her races last year and this year, that's not the same filly.

Zaftig is an interesting bet, she's bred to like this. she beat indian blessing already.

Zaftig hasn't raced in a while and never on dirt.

Tiz Elemental actually isn't bad. i don't think she can win, but I would bank on her picking up a check.

Ventura can run, But turf hasn't been transferring to dirt/synthetics very well and this might be too short for her

I would go with Dearest Tricksi on top with Zaftig/Tiz Elemental 2nd, Indian Blessing 3rd/Mags

[Twingirl]

I too like Zaftig, but she hasn't run since 6/7. She did crush Indian Blessing. That's a long layoff though.

Tiz Elemental is good late runner longshot. But so is Tizzy's Tune (Tiznow).....who seems to love Pro-Ride and is another longshot closer?

Ventura took on the boys. I gotta think about this one more.

So, why didn't you like Intangaroo? She won three G1's at this distance.

Lady Sprinter is another "unknown" here. Speedy Argentinian and has been trained to come from behind.

[bdw0617]

the reason i tossed intangeroo is because she has proven that she is a dirt filly and for the most part, not a synethic one.

her best races, her wins at hte distance, come on dirt. her races where she doesn't show up, are on synethics. not a hard toss to be honest.

against this calibur of filly she'd be hard pressed to win on DIRT, and she's an autotoss on a surface she has proven she doesn't like against worst.

if she beats me she beats me, but i can't put money on that

[DDT]

This could be a very tough race, but Indian Blessing has been working very good, and the only horse in the field to have beaten her is Zaftig who also has been working well and is lightly raced. If the Pro-Ride plays like typical synthetics, the closers in here could be dangerous, however, these two stand out, at least to me. Catch em to beat em....

DDT

[UmmYeah]

This race is my pick for BC race most likely to be won by a longshot (20-1 or higher).

[UmmYeah]

Well, so much for that prediction!

[bdw0617]

lol

needless tos ay, she took to the track

[bdw0617]

now i found out post race that ventura trained overseas for 4 months on synethics.. great. just great

[halfbridled]

I didn't realize there was a handicapping forum as well, that is new!
Blessing did OK but I don't think this was her best race. Maybe the surface but she also just did not seem to mentally be in the race..
She is off to Dubai for the Shaheen, while this was a good race by Ventura, on Dirt I still say Blessing is one incredible filly.

[oliverstoned]

Hats off to Indian Blessing if this race would have been a true dirt sprint ie. 6 furlongs on real dirt she would have won by daylight. Definitely the best dirt sprinting female this year.