Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies Turf

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bdw0617
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Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies Turf

Postby bdw0617 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:01 am

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Total Purse $1,000,000
Two-Year-Old Fillies
1 Mile (Turf)
Friday, October 24, 2008

Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 April Pride (GB) David Flores 12-1
2 Laragh Edgar Prado 7-2
3 Maram Jose Lezcano 10-1
4 C Karma Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
5 Emmy Darling Rafael Bejarano 8-1
6 Freedom Rings Alan Garcia 8-1
7 Consequence John Velazquez 8-1
8 Sugar Mom Eibar Coa 10-1
9 Renda Sebastian Madrid 10-1
10 Beyond Our Reach (IRE) Frankie Dettori 15-1
11 Saucey Evening Garrett Gomez 9-2
12 Heart Shaped John Murtagh 15-1
13AE Internallyflawless TBA 8-1
14AE Atka Russell Baze 30-1
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bdw0617
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Postby bdw0617 » Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:56 pm

looking at this race, and this might be one of the easier races to handicap.

It's for all intents and purposes, a 2 horse race. C Karma and Laragh.

Beyond our reach, heart shaped and april pride will all be bet down because they run over on the other side of the pond and the bias that comes with that, but none of them are really that good. they are not top flight horses.

C Karma beat Laragh up at woodbine, and went wide to do so.. this was the last race, and C Karma is 8 to 1 and Laragh is 7/2 for the simple fact that she had another and won, very nicely.

all that does IMHO is show just how good value C Karma is at 8 to 1. Laragh can easily turn the tables, but at 7/2 I'll go with the horse that beat her in her last race, thank you very much.

you realy couldn't go wrong boxing these two. I don't see another horse getting 2nd place.

I don't like any of thse fillies in the Belmont Prep, although I think overall consequence might be the best of the bunch with clear run. but that was not a very well ran race whatsover. given that the only other race consequcne has on her resume is a 5 and a half MSW win, not enough to bet on here.

I really like Sugar Mom. never ran on Turf before but she's got a tad bit turf in her blood and might be the most improved horse in america from August until now. was a 35k claimera not too long ago, now is romping in stakes. VERY impressive, given of course.

not good enough win i dont' htinkk but wuld not shock me at all to get 3rd place.

I would go C Karma with Laragh on top, if you wanted to get fance, play Sugar Mom and Saucey Evening 3rd. Saucey evening only ran once on turf, but her turf debut puts all these other debuts to complete shame. she will take to turff, there is no question about that.
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Postby Twingirl » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:19 pm

I like your pics. I like Saucey Evening more than you do, better than C.Karma. Saucey won at this distance, and so did CKarma, but I think Saucey's win was more powerful.

Consequence, you'd have to go on breeding, and never hit the board at this distance, but is bred for it.

Sugar Mom IS really improving but she's a dirt filly out of a G3 turf mare. Not sure about her. It's between her and Renda for me....Renda is also dirt filly but she's won two G1s........crushed 'em at CRC, and has Medalia Doro which you know I'm kinda partial to.

Why didn't you like Heart-Shaped? or Internally Flawless? Heartshaped seems perfect for this race. Internally is the only horse in this race who actually WON on SA turf.

Just thinkin' out loud, hoping you'll give me some feedback. :)

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Postby bdw0617 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:51 am

i like saucy evening but you gotta look at the class it was done in. she won nicely, in a cal bred stakes. and it wasn't even on turf. it was on synethics. now i am pretty confident she can run on turf, but still, that's just another unknown.

the one stakes race she had against open company she wasn't even in the discussion. i know the turf is weaker than the dirt, but i means he had no chance whatsoever. i'd expect a filly that could win the breeders cup turf juvinille to at least be heard from in a grade 1 stakes race.

after that she comes and beats up on cal bred's again.

at 12 to 1 she might be intreging.. but 9/2? Again, i'll take C Karma, a filly who has won on the distance, and has beaten the M/L fav. if i lose i lose, but that's a pretty darn sound bet to me.
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Postby DDT » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:56 am

I think Consequence could have won her second start with a better ride, J.R. had her all over the place, but mainly wide and was trying his best to rate her early when he should have just let her go. She comes in with a very nice work and I think she will be there at the end. I sure wish Prado was aboard, but I think she will be a nice price and she demonstrated some talent in her maiden score. Laragh is the horse to beat and she may never look back here. Both go on my ticket.

DDT

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Postby Diane » Fri Oct 24, 2008 11:30 pm

I had Maram across the board :D