let me start off by saying, go betwee, tiago, smooth air, champs elyesees, fairbanks, colonel john and student counsil have no chance to win this race. they are fillers. of that entire group I could see a situtation where Tiago sneaks up and runs the race of his freaking life and beats someone by a noise.. but not betting on it.
of the real horses:
Casino Drive: I love this horse. he has done nothing wrong in his career, he just hasn't done alot. he won't embarass himself, and i want to say no bet, but i can't. he's too good. i'll say this... 15 to 1 or higher i'm in on a win bet. probably even 20 to 1. has to be worth it. but youcan't count him out.
Duke of Marmalade: horse has real talent.. this is why I need to see replays of horses... he has no speed. none. he's very monotonish which isn't going to bode well for him against speedy american horses. he should take to the turf, he likes firm turf which translates to synethics pretty well. but the european horses who ususally do good are the ones with a high cruising speed, becuase over there, they basically jog then SRPINT for 2 or 3 furlongs so it's all about the closing kick. here there is more speed over the entire race and it's more staying power. think Dylan Thomas last year. I don't like him in this spot.
henrythenavgator: bred to like this stuff, but he's really a miler and isn't the best miler at tht
nothing more than o'brien stuffing the box if you ask me
for all intents and purposes this is a 2 horse race. Curlin and Raven's Pass.
Raven's Pass unlike most european horses, is bred to be a pretty good dirt horse. He's by Elusive Quality, same sire as smarty jones. I have no question he will get the distance or the surface.
the only question I have, is, I is he as good or better a synethic horse or curlin?
I'm not willing to bet on it.
I'd take curlin.. actuallly I'll pass... i'm not betting at that price, but i think curlin is going to win
Breeders Cup Classic
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bdw0617
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Breeders Cup Classic
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ratherrapid
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oliverstoned
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Heck it works with diamonds, so I'm going with the 4 C's. Curlin,Casino Drive, Champs Elysees, and Colonel John. I am even slapping down decent money on this order of finish. Won't be the first time I throw money in the wind lmao!!! But secretly I am hoping Casino Drive at the very least , if not a win, has a stretch duel with Curlin. If Casino Drive wins..... then there is another tangent I may go off on, but that isn't really handicapping... though it may be.... 
Good luck all!
Good luck all!
trying to come up with something brillant..... this may take a while.
Looking through this race last night I came to the conclusion that anything can happen because there really isn't alot of speed in this race. Fairbanks is the only one who has shown any inclination to go to the front and he doesn't even seem to really want to be there. Colonel John might go with him because no one else wants to be there, which sets it up when you have two tough horses on the lead who don't want to be there, for a half mile split of :49. Can anyone catch them if they crawl through the opening half? I would have felt much better about Curlin and the other stalkers and closers if they had an honest pace to run at, but I just don't see an honest pace in this race so it's tough to handicap this as a normal race. My hope is that maybe the Euro-milers might fill that void but I'm not sure about that.
Anyways my picks: Duke of Marmalade, Go Between, Curlin, Champs Elysees. In that order.
Anyways my picks: Duke of Marmalade, Go Between, Curlin, Champs Elysees. In that order.
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ratherrapid
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And I guess my 4 C's failed miserably.... oh well the ol pocket is a little lighter!! 
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bdw0617
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Re: Breeders Cup Classic
bdw0617 wrote:
for all intents and purposes this is a 2 horse race. Curlin and Raven's Pass.
Raven's Pass unlike most european horses, is bred to be a pretty good dirt horse. He's by Elusive Quality, same sire as smarty jones. I have no question he will get the distance or the surface.
the only question I have, is, I is he as good or better a synethic horse or curlin?
I'm not willing to bet on it.
I'd take curlin.. actuallly I'll pass... i'm not betting at that price, but i think curlin is going to win
since when did elusive quality on top of lord at war NOT scream distance?
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I guess maybe b/c he had mainly pumped out one milers?? I don't know.... that's me listening to 'handicappers'. If I knew wth I was doing as far as betting was concerned....... let's just say work in progress with very little progress.... 
trying to come up with something brillant..... this may take a while.
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bdw0617
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spex4me wrote:I guess maybe b/c he had mainly pumped out one milers?? I don't know.... that's me listening to 'handicappers'. If I knew wth I was doing as far as betting was concerned....... let's just say work in progress with very little progress....
well in fairness, even though elusive quality is better known for smarty jones, he himself was a pretty good miler.
couldn't tell ya. but i can guess. over "there", in long distance races, you not only have the distance, you have hills. the avg "distance" horse here in america is really not a stayer, but more of a miler over there, you take off the hills.
the thing that kills most european horses is not the surface, or the turns, but the crusing speed. most euopean horses (see duke of marlolade) have slow cruising speeds, which is fine in europe becuase it's all just a 3F sprint uphill, and he can kick with the best of them, but over here ti's more about positioning and your cruising speed has to be to the point whre you are in the race TO kick. see the filly today. you won't see closes like you see over there.. go look at the QEII at youtube.. that's your avg race and that's just a mile race, ltierarly jogging for 5 furlongs and sprinting for 3.
anyway, that's my theory
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Twingirl
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spex4me wrote:Heck it works with diamonds, so I'm going with the 4 C's. Curlin,Casino Drive, Champs Elysees, and Colonel John.
Funny! That was pretty much exactly what my wagering looked like. Except I threw Tiago in, because I thought he would be dangerous if he ran his race.
I'm still actually sad about Casino. You know how sentimental atachments can be. I really wanted him to "do" something here. I think the Belmont would have turned out pretty good for him. Oh well.
You know I have jumped so far up on the CD bandwagon that I am hoping that in the coming days they don't come out and say he injured himself. All I see is Rags..... though she came in second. But even then I didn't have as much amore for Rags as I do CD.... 
trying to come up with something brillant..... this may take a while.
European racing
I agree with your assessment of Europoean racing, bdw, and perhaps we can learn from them. I think their style of racing is much more exciting as the winner is almost always in doubt with 50 yards left in the race and with 5 or 6 or more horses in contention until the finish line. I think "negative splits" is what it is all about.... the last 1/4 and 1/2 being faster than the first 1/4 and 1/2 in a 1 1/4 race. Haven't done the math exactly but Raven's Pass probably was >48 for the first 1/2 and probably just a little over 46 for the last 1/2. This, in my view, is the recipe for success.
When Roger Bannister broke the 4 minute mile, he did so by doing 2 things considerably different from his peers. In Bannister's day, the thought was to go out as fast as you thought you could and just hold on. The first quarter was ALWAYS faster, and significantly, than the last. These days it is just the opposite. The first quarter is NEVER faster than the last. The other difference that Bannister embraced was training techniques. In his day, the average miler put in about 20 to 30 miles per week....mostly doing 1/4ers and 1/2ves at a speed faster than would be done in the mile itself. VERY little long distance work. Todays milers put in much more mileage, perhaps 80 or 90 miles and with a LOT of work of 5 miles at a time or more and with relatively little speed work.
The difference in training techniques used by Bannister brings me to another difference about European horses. Their horses put in a LOT more distance work than our horses and significantly less speed work. Their horses have a much deeper base that holds them in good stead for that last 1/4 mile. It was never more evident than in the Classic yesterday. This demonstrates that stamina can be trained into a horse and need not necessarily be inherited by the pedigree. Using several different applications of Bill from Wa's conduit mare profile, Raven's Pass does not show that he has the ability to pull off a 1:59.2. Additionally, European horses get injured at a significantly less frequency than do ours..partly because they do significantly less speed work. Speed Kills!! is never more appropriate than in the training of a young thoroughbred.
Just my thoughts.
When Roger Bannister broke the 4 minute mile, he did so by doing 2 things considerably different from his peers. In Bannister's day, the thought was to go out as fast as you thought you could and just hold on. The first quarter was ALWAYS faster, and significantly, than the last. These days it is just the opposite. The first quarter is NEVER faster than the last. The other difference that Bannister embraced was training techniques. In his day, the average miler put in about 20 to 30 miles per week....mostly doing 1/4ers and 1/2ves at a speed faster than would be done in the mile itself. VERY little long distance work. Todays milers put in much more mileage, perhaps 80 or 90 miles and with a LOT of work of 5 miles at a time or more and with relatively little speed work.
The difference in training techniques used by Bannister brings me to another difference about European horses. Their horses put in a LOT more distance work than our horses and significantly less speed work. Their horses have a much deeper base that holds them in good stead for that last 1/4 mile. It was never more evident than in the Classic yesterday. This demonstrates that stamina can be trained into a horse and need not necessarily be inherited by the pedigree. Using several different applications of Bill from Wa's conduit mare profile, Raven's Pass does not show that he has the ability to pull off a 1:59.2. Additionally, European horses get injured at a significantly less frequency than do ours..partly because they do significantly less speed work. Speed Kills!! is never more appropriate than in the training of a young thoroughbred.
Just my thoughts.
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bdw0617
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good post
when handicapping euopean races the only thing I care about is the last 3F speed. you can throw the final time out the window. it's utterly useless.
that's why they kept sending george washington over here.. a miler. a miler over there, a good one, is the equivlant of an american classic horse.
that's why you hardly ever seen a "champion" horse from over there come over here and look lights out.. see dylan thomas.
when handicapping euopean races the only thing I care about is the last 3F speed. you can throw the final time out the window. it's utterly useless.
that's why they kept sending george washington over here.. a miler. a miler over there, a good one, is the equivlant of an american classic horse.
that's why you hardly ever seen a "champion" horse from over there come over here and look lights out.. see dylan thomas.
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Bill from WA
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Hi Jagger
The conduit mare profile for Raven's Pass was one of several handicapping tools that led me to bet this horse. His profile of (8-5-3-4-9) (13/13 speed/stamina) (Index of 0.96) (Triads of 16-12-16), offered proof (to me) that he could get the distance. Nice balance in the wings (B/P) tilting toward stamina, coupled with good distance profiles from the dam of his sire (8-2-3-6-9) (10/15), and the dam of his dam (5-6-5-8-4) (11/12) added up to a profile that should easily get the distance. Look at the similarity in the profiles of Seattle Slew (10-4-3-4-10) (1.00), and Smarty Jones (11-2-2-2-11) (1.00), who were both successful at 10 furlongs. Just different ways that we utilize the numbers.
Bill
The conduit mare profile for Raven's Pass was one of several handicapping tools that led me to bet this horse. His profile of (8-5-3-4-9) (13/13 speed/stamina) (Index of 0.96) (Triads of 16-12-16), offered proof (to me) that he could get the distance. Nice balance in the wings (B/P) tilting toward stamina, coupled with good distance profiles from the dam of his sire (8-2-3-6-9) (10/15), and the dam of his dam (5-6-5-8-4) (11/12) added up to a profile that should easily get the distance. Look at the similarity in the profiles of Seattle Slew (10-4-3-4-10) (1.00), and Smarty Jones (11-2-2-2-11) (1.00), who were both successful at 10 furlongs. Just different ways that we utilize the numbers.
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
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Langston Hughes