Florida Derby

[Bill from WA]

GSV/Conduit Mare Stamina Index combination

1) Toby the Coal Man (SI = 0.91) (Combined = 0.73)
(7-4-3-7-10) (11/17) (0.70) (14-14-20)
2) Quality Road (1.02) (0.74)
(9-6-2-4-9) (15/13) (1.08) (17-12-15)
3) Casey's On Call (0.90) (0.80)
(9-2-6-7-6) (11/13) (1.04) (17-15-19)
4) Dunkirk (0.87) (0.88)
(3-6-2-3-9) (9/12) (0.61) (11-11-14)
5) Sincero (0.59) (1.08)
(7-4-0-12-5) (11/17) (0.82) (11-16-17)
6) Theregoesjojo (1.05) (0.73)
(6-4-7-4-6) (10/10) (1.00) (17-15-17)
7) Danger To Society (1.16) (0.60)
(7-6-7-4-4) (13/8) (1.42) (20-17-15)
8) Europe (0.76) (0.96)
(2-6-3-7-7) (8/14) (0.54) (11-16-17)
9) Stately Character (0.93) (0.78)
(10-2-4-3-9) (12/12) (1.04) (16-9-16)

Top four SI

1) Sincero (0.59)
2) Europe (0.76)
3) Dunkirk (0.87)
4) Casey's On Call (0.90)

Top four Combined Index

1) Sincero (1.08)
2) Europe (0.96)
3) Dunkirk (0.88)
4) Casey's On Call (0.80)

Top four Combined Index plus BRIS Speed scores

1) Sincero (203)
2) Europe (188)
3) Dunkirk (186)
4) Quality Road (177)

Sincero has been trouble prone, and may improve enough here to make some noise. The maiden, Europe, is a real question mark, but he certainly has the pedigree credentials to get the distance. His conduit profile, which has limited Brilliant designations, suggests that his best running style might be that of a closer even though he is supposedly only in the race to soften up Quality Road as a "rabbit" for Dunkirk. Dunkirk and Quality Road are probably the most naturally talented of the bunch, so we'll have to see how the pedigrees stand up to the longer distances (Dunkirk is already a proven commodity at 9 furlongs). Theregoesjojo is another to take seriously with his balanced conduit profile and definite talent. He may be coming hard late.

Bill

[Stevie Belmont]

The Florida Derby

Quality Road, the #1 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12, is set and ready for the Florida Derby on Saturday. The race features two other Kentucky Derby prospects in Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo, who will both, be among the horses that will be favored in the betting. The morning-line favorite 9/5 for the Florida Derby is undefeated 3.7 million dollar purchase * Flashback* Dunkirk. Dunkirk was a winner last time, being wide most of his trip, and at a mile and an eighth. He swung wide and drew off to win that race. Dunkirk has also received a good deal of media coverage, and has been touted by some as the next big horse. Tomorrow he faces his first legitimate class test, as he faces the talented and very fast Quality Road.

Quality Road was a going-away winner in his debut at Aqueduct last November, in what was one of the most impressive maiden wins I have seen by a 2-year-old last year. Quality Road ran second in his next race off a layoff to Theregoesjojo, and followed that race up with a blockbuster win in the Fountain of Youth. Theregoesjojo can run to. He defeated Quality Road in an allowance race in early January. And was second to Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth with a sustained closing bid, and he is also the best horse to date that Dunkirk has faced.

Team Tabor goes to their bag of tricks in an attempt to get Dunkirk to wire first tomorrow, by entering stable mate and 2.6 million purchase Europe who has been working fast in the mornings. The strategy is simple, have Europe go to the lead and set a fast pace, and hope Quality Road gets drawn into a speed duel with him, setting up the late kick of Dunkirk. Sounds good, but Quality Road is far from a one trick pony. He settled nicely in the Fountain of Youth, while cruising along through fast fractions in tandem with This Ones for Phil, who he put away with ease turning for home. A pair of recent slow breezes is a positive, indicating he is a relaxed horse who should have plenty in the final furlong. Quality Road makes his first attempt at a two-turn race, and breaks from post position 2, which will be a positive, as he can save ground early.

ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Florida Derby is Quality Road. He is the fastest horse in the race, and to win, he will be the horse they have to beat. Dunkirk, a confirmed closer after his first two starts, will make an expected late bid, but has yet to run a race as fast as Quality Road, although he has been working fast in the mornings. Dunkirk looks set for a good try. Pace does make the race, and Quality Road is the horse that can dictate it if he chooses to, rabbit or no rabbit. Quality Road has the ability to run fast early and through the entire race. He can settle, in other words he gets into the race on his own, without being asked with his natural speed, and that is one of the most important assets a thoroughbred can have. Quality Road will probably let Europe go and sit off anyone who is out there by a length, if not more. Theregoesjojo could pose the biggest threat to Quality Road, as he was the only horse in the picture at the end of the Fountain of Youth. He should rate a few lengths behind, if not more, and make his bid, but will have to run down Quality Road, which so far, could be the toughest of all 3-year-olds to run down at this point. Danger to Society will be making his first start for Richard Dutrow, who has had a few fast works, and could run a good race, but would still need to improve a great deal to defeat Quality Road. The rest of the field looks overmatched, and anyone else would be a huge upset win. Quality Road is ready to punch his ticket to Louisville, and as a major player to win the roses in 5 weeks with a break out effort tomorrow. *Weather is supposed to be sunny with a high of 86*

[Bill from WA]

Good call Stevie. I hit the tri when I threw in Theregoesjojo for the scratched Europe (Whoopee!!!). I bet $48 and got $12 back. My other horse, Sincero, was not in the same class (by far) as the top three.

http://www.dimarpublishing.citymaker.co ... 425508.htm

Bill

[ratherrapid]

though Sincero ran much better than I expected. GSV/conduit perhaps!