Kentucky Derby 135 Pick

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Stevie Belmont
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Kentucky Derby 135 Pick

Postby Stevie Belmont » Fri May 01, 2009 8:09 pm

ThoroughredZone Picks I Want Revenge to Win Kentucky Derby 135

My original pick was going to be Quality Road. He did not make it. Another quarter crack derailed his Derby bid.

Kentucky Derby 135 Contender Close-Up

Dunkirk is a horse that has garnered my respect for various reasons. He made a bold move in the Florida Derby to collar and pass the super-talented Quality Road, in what I thought was the best Derby prep of the year. He ran that race on a very speed-favoring surface, and still made a strong rally. This 3.7 million dollar purchase will be making only his fourth career start in tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby. Dunkirk has been working strongly in Florida, and looks to be set for a big effort. He will have to buck history to win this race though. He is unraced as a 2-year-old, and no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without a race as a 2-year-old. The other side is he could very well move forward in making his fourth career start. He is moving towards that I feel. In fact, he actually galloped out past Quality Road, after the race was over, in the Florida Derby. The 5-week break has been successful over the past few years—both Barbaro and Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby coming off 5-week breaks. He is a fresh horse. However, the biggest concern I have with him is experience. Does he have enough seasoning? He has fired that big move in all three career starts. He will have to avoid traffic issues. I expect him to again fire it tomorrow, and that makes him a contender. A lot of horses will be going backwards, as he begins his rally.

There are few threats for the top spot in this race. At one time, I honestly considered Pioneerof the Nile as the big player, and he still could very well be. He has a few things to like; he is a seasoned horse with a solid 2-year-old foundation. Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for this race. He has won the Derby three times. I thought long and hard about it, but there is one nagging, overwhelming question that has not been answered yet—he has yet to run on dirt. How will he like it? Can the Kentucky Derby top pick be a horse making his first career start on dirt? That is a risky proposition for any handicapper. I Want Revenge and Papa Clem both excelled when they switched to dirt (from the poly track) for the first time. Pioneerof the Nile has defeated both on the poly track. Can he do it tomorrow on a natural surface? Maybe he will run big on it, and maybe not. He won his prep races in workman like fashion, nothing spectacular. He is in shape and ready. Anyway, you look at this horse; he is a risk as a top pick on dirt, but there are things to like about him. As a May foal, he is catching up to some of the others in the maturation department. That being said, he must prove he is the goods on dirt, in the toughest race of his short career.

Top Pick

ThoroughbredZone’s Top Selection To Win The Kentucky Derby 135

I Want Revenge

The question of who can get the mile-and-a-quarter is always one of the most important factors in the Kentucky Derby. When I selected Barbaro to win the Kentucky Derby, I did so confident in knowing he would be able to get the distance. Tomorrow there is one horse in particular that I strongly feel will get the mile-and-a-quarter. I Want Revenge is that horse. He galloped out strongly after the Wood Memorial, in a race where he had to overcome several obstacles to win. He overcame a bad break, and a wall of horses blocked his path in the stretch. He fought through the wall, found a seam, and finished full of run to win. He kept on going nicely after the wire, well past a mile-and-a-quarter. He powered home to victory in his dirt debut in the Gotham stakes back in March. He ran with Mr. Fantasy most of the way, before putting him away in the stretch. Mr. Fantasy since that race, has comeback to win the The Withers in impressive fashion last Saturday. Mr. Fantasy is a quality thoroughbred with a bright future. He did not look that great before the Withers, but anyway you look at it, I Want Revenge ran away from him earning a huge speed figure in his dirt debut. I Want Revenge is a battled tested thoroughbred. He raced as a 2-year-old giving him a solid foundation. He battled through a wall of horses in the stretch in the Wood Memorial to win. He is gutsy, and without a doubt a mile-and-a-quarter is right up his ally. This horse can get the distance, and that is half the battle. IEAH liked him so much after the Gotham that they purchased significant interest in him. He comes into the Kentucky Derby with the right profile. He went through his prep races perfectly setting him up for another big effort tomorrow. He will be running in the stretch strongly. I Want Revenge is ThoroughbredZone’s top selection to win Kentucky Derby 135.

Kentucky Derby Betting Prospects…Use or Not Use?

West Side Bernie: Ran second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Breaks from the dreaded one hole in tomorrow’s race. He should be big odds, and at 40/1 or better, could get up for a piece if everything goes right. User Under In Triples

Musket Man: Horse has done nothing but win. Connections insist he can run all day. I still feel the mile-and-quarter is out of his reach, and the two hole is a bad post. He will have to get position early. Not Using

Mr. Hot Stuff: A big rally type horse making his first career start on dirt, he could go off as high as 70/1. His style dictates he could come late passing tiring horses for a piece. User Under In Triples

Advice: A closer who came from back in the pack to win the Lexington Stakes. If you are looking for that big priced horse under in supers and or triples, you can consider him in the bottom of those tickets. User Under In Triples

Hold Me Back: Another rally horse that has who will be making his 3rd start off the layoff, another horse who very well could be passing tired rivals late. User Under In Triples

Friesan Fire: This horse has been flying under the radar. FF is confirmed slop lover, rolling home in the Louisiana Derby in the slop. Dangerous off the layoff for Larry Jones and has been working very well. Should not be to far out of it. He has never been past a mile-and-sixteenth – Saver win bet, if the track comes up sloppy. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Papa Clem: Arkansas Derby winner worked a real fast 3-furlong blowout. A very fast work a couple of days before the Derby is a little concern. I like his breeding. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Mine That Bird: Over matched in this race. He should go off over 70/1. Would be a very tall order for an in the money finish. Not Using

Join The Dance: Only one of two confirmed speed horses who will go right to lead with Regal Ransom. Certainly a pace factor, but that should be it. Not Using

Regal Ransom: The other confirmed front-runner in the race. Winner UAE Derby in front running fashion. Could be a threat to stay on longer, if he can shake off Join the Dance. He could also sit right off Join the Dance. He is an interesting prospect. A sloppy track could aid his chances. User Under In Triples and Exactas- Saver Win Bet

Chocolate Candy: Made a strong rally in the Santa Anita Derby when rallying from last and wide. He finished right behind Pioneerof the Nile. He has a style that could get him a piece. Never raced on dirt. User Under In Exactas and Triples

General Quarters: Feel good story of this years Kentucky Derby. Bluegrass Stakes winner faces a daunting task in being a huge player tomorrow. A former $20,000 maiden claimer will be hard pressed to win the Derby. Not Using.

I Want Revenge: ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Kentucky Derby. Solid foundation who is battled tested and should have no issue going the distance. He has blossomed since switching to dirt. Top Pick To Win

Atomic Rain: He just got in at the last second, faces a daunting task in the Derby. Has some tactical speed. Not Using.

Dunkirk: One of the main contenders tomorrow. Has run great in all three career starts, should make a strong late rally. A threat to win it if he fires his best shot Dangerous. User Under In Exactas

Pioneerof the Nile: The biggest puzzle of the race. You go either with, or against. Is he fast enough one of his biggest question? Based on the success of Baffert and the fact he is a May foal , he has upside. First try on dirt in the Derby. User Under in Exactas

Summer Bird: Fourth career start tomorrow. Ran third in the Arkansas Derby. A come from behind rally type horse. If all goes right, could pick off tiring horses in the stretch. Will be a huge price of 60/1 or better. User Under in Triples

Nowhere to Hide: Zito sneaks in at the last second with a horse who looks over matched on paper. Ran decent in the Risen Star and Tampa Bay Derby. Zito has pulled off shockers in the past, this would be the biggest of them all. Under in Triples

Desert Party: The other Godolphin owned thoroughbred in the race. Ran second in the UAE Derby in March. Two solid works, and will be off the pace and make a bid. I would not totally ignore. User Under in Exactas

Flying Private: Wayne Lukas is back! Flying Private ran second in the Lane’s End at Turfway back in March, and was a non-threatening 5th in the Arkansas Derby. Outclassed for the top spot, but underneath at 60/1 would make anyone’s ticket nice. User Under in Triples

Top Pick To Win

13

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Play

13 / 6,7,10,11,15,16,19 / 1,3,4,5,11,17,18,20 $49 Bet

Kentucky Derby Exacta Box Play

10,13,15,19,20 $20 Bet

Saver win bets on Regal Ransom and Desert Party…Regal Ransom should be 20/1- 25/1 and Desert Party should be 10/1 - 15/1…Both get lasix for the 1st time as well

Good Luck!!

ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Contest

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diomed
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Postby diomed » Sat May 02, 2009 6:55 am

Friesan Fire under the radar???
He is currently the favorite for the race!
LOL!!
Man dude, both of your picks are not making it in the race.
Are you a jinx or what?
(DON'T pick Friesan Fire, please.) :wink: