Who wins the Preakness if Rachael Alexandra is Out?

[Bedouwia]

From the news today, the filly will not get in -- so, we are back to handicapping the colts. While I would love to see a triple crown winner, I have some doubts about Mine That Bird in this one. Just curious about what others think.

Bedouwia

[bdw0617]

I would throw out every horse that ran in the derby.

without rachael I think it's a 2 horse race between Hull and Big Drama and I"d lean torwards Hull

[Bedouwia]

Of course, it now looks like she is back in and will probably go off as the favorite. However, I still find your remarks interesting. I must confess that I can't settle on any of the "top" colts as a stand out. At least they are still in the game, and all of my early favorites are out of it.

Bedouwia

[bdw0617]

without I want revenege and quality road and a dunkirk that did whatever the heck he did, this is a very, very avg field of horses.

Actually, it's not that much better if any than last's years. POTN is a constant 94-97 beyer horse and he's going to be the 2nd betting choice.

Par for preakness is 110. so, if you are betting a derby horse, other than mine that bird, you are saying in essense, hey, this horse is going to run the race of his freaking life and run like he has never ran before. becuase that's what it is going to take for papa clem, fresien fire, pioneerof the nile, musket man or general quaters to win.

If you are betting mine that bird,w hcih ist he only horse I would even consider playing, you are saying that hey, that last race was not a complete fluke. which I don't think it was as much as everyone thinks.

Even if it is a fluke, He could regress 6 lengths and STILL be better than any other derby horse.

I liked big drama becuase he is fast and is classy. but I don't think he is AS classy as Rachael and he wont' go as far as rachael will, but he won't give up either easily.


I'd Rachael on tip with Mine that Bird and Papa Clem on the bottom, boxed on the bottom

[Bedouwia]

Well, Hull is out. So I will take your remarks into consideration. I will bet on Big Drama at least to show. I am not much of a bettor, but need to at least have a few bucks wagered to make it more interesting -- I will box a few with RA.

It has been said that Rachael Alexandra did not have any tough fillies to run against, and it is almost the same with the colts with so many defections.

Bedouwia

[bdw0617]

EXACTLY.

the way I see this playing out.

she will win and will win nicely. you think the talk is bad NOW?

they won't race her in the belmont. they will run her in the travers where she will go off at 1/9 or 1/5 and Qualty road will beat her soundly at a nice price.


that is how I plan to profit off of rachael alexandra.

don't get me wrong, she's GREAT and UNREAL and I mean that. but she isn't going to beat anyone that much better than she has been beating in all honestly.

I'm still debating on if calvin is going to throw gang signs down the stretch. that's my biggest worry. I go to sleep and thinking he will, but when I wake up I don't think so anymore. that's tough. that probably is the only question of this race

[horsenuts]

Appears RA will run(and I hope she does as I view her as a 'bet against'). So who will win the Preakness? I'm giving serious consideration to the same horse I bet in the Derby, Friesan Fire. He didn't run a jump on Derby Day so he will have ample unused energy.


Why did he run so poorly despite going off as the race time favorite? Who knows..... he did get jostled around a bit and nicked up a tad etc. so perhaps the psychological effect of these events put him in the 'no run today mode'. He worked a scorching 5/8s in 58.3 on Monday so he looks to be back on track. We know he has the class to run with the top horses so if he's over 6-1 I'll be tempted to try him once more. Remember, Hansel never really got out of a gallop in the '91 Derby as the favorite but came back to win the Preakness in easy style while also adding the Belmont 3 weeks later. As of now I'm leaning toward Friesan Fire..... but may change my mind on race day for a multitude of reasons.

[bdw0617]

if i had to make a bet on a horse not Rachael to win I'd go with papa clem

[Georgerz]

I'd go with Mine That Bird, just because I still have hopes for a Triple Crown winner.

[ZZTOPPERS]

RAs only losses came when she was pressed on a hot early pace (something like 23 / 47) but she did that in the Oaks and won easily--do you see anyone in here that can push her to a 23 / 46 pace and set it up for the closers?

[DDT]

ZZTOPPERS

In her three losing races Rachel Alexandra was not pressing the pace, in her first race at 4 1/2 furlongs she never got a call, in both the others she was not in the top 3 until the turn for home. The outside post could make it more difficult for her to get position early, especially if Big Drama is not the only horse gunning for the lead. She has enough tactical speed to get position without being hung out to dry on the first turn, but if Calvin desides to go from the bell Big Drama may be the only horse that can make her run hard early and a speed duel with him could very well set up the race for the closers. I think she will get position and they will have her to beat.

DDT

[bdw0617]

i will know if she wins by the time they hit the first turn. If shes going easy and has good positiont he race is over.

[Des]

Pioneer of the Nile......has my bet....If not him would love to see another one go for the crown at Belmont Park

[Bedouwia]

Well, just to confuse me even more they are now saying that the track could be sloppy for tomorrow? I suppose that could help Mine That Bird and Pioneer of the Nile, who did well in the Derby on a wet track. I still don't quite know what to think of Fresian Fire, who really never ran? I am glad that I am not a handicapper for a living. I plan on a lot of cheap boxes with Rachael Alexandra, since her odds are even???

Bedouwia

[bdw0617]

when you get to this level of compitition a game horse IMHO is a game horse. You didnt' hear big red making excuses becuase of the slop. or personal ensign. or winning colors.

I thnk it hurts musket man more than anyone else. maybe big drama.