Preakness Play And Pick: It's Rachel Alexandra

[Stevie Belmont]

Preakness Stakes

Here we are. Preakness Day 2009. Who is going to win it is the question on many people’s minds. If you follow ThoroughredZone, or even take an occasional glance at the Kentucky Derby Top 12, you will know we follow these three-year olds closely.

A large field of 12 colts and one amazingly, fast, easy running filly has assembled down in Baltimore for a run for the Black-eyed Susans. It is a competitive field, but from the handicapping aspect, one should not go bonkers playing it. I for one have always felt, of the three Triple Crown races, The Preakness Stakes, always seemed to be one of the easier races to cap.

Preview And Pick

Big Drama: Speedball draws the rail and on any other day, minus Rachel Alexandra could be a threat to go all the way, but that is not the case tomorrow. The rail spells doom for a couple of reasons. Will have to get busy early and go right to the lead, easy running Rachel Alexandra will stalk at will, and will not be able to fend off the super talented and in form filly when she decides to join along. And the Preakness distance is another concern for Big Drama. Not Using

Mine That Bird: The shocking upset Kentucky Derby winner will be up against again tomorrow. Calvin Borel jumped horses to go back to his super girl knowing how special she is. He has never run a race as nearly as good as his race in the Kentucky Derby. He will have to do it again to win the Preakness. A deep muddy track will aid his chances. Cannot see lightning striking twice. Should go off between 5/1 and 8/1. I will put him in the tri however. Mud, or no mud, he did close fast. User In Tri

Musket Man: Ran 3rd in the Derby, but ThoroughredZone has drawn a line through that race. Track conditions were very bad, and yet he still ran a solid race, worked a strong 46 at Monmouth Park on the 12th. Another top effort and he is in there once again for a piece of the pie. So far, he has out run his pedigree. Musket Man has yet to really run a poor race. He is consistent. User

Luv Gov: Finally broke his maiden last out in his 10 start. Looks overmatched, and on all scales simply not as fast as some of the others, could be the longest shot on the board. There is no doubt he has improved as a three-year-old, but would have to make a huge jump up to make an impact here. A user if you like names and numbers. I’ll pass. Not Using

Friesan Fire: Got knocked around at the start of the Kentucky Derby and he was done. Worked a fast 58 since, but still has more cons, than pros at this point, never past a mile and a sixteenth. Larry Jones knows how to get a horse ready, and this guy might bounce back and make an impact. Running style should have him not to far off the expected pace setters. Some of the other higher priced horses will offer more value than this guy. Would like to see him run well however. Not Using

Terrain: Stalk/Rally type will have to make a huge move forward to make an impact in this race. New shooters in the Preakness over the years have not done well, and this colt has yet to run a race that would be good enough to win here. However could pass some up late in the race. Sometimes in races where there is a standout, who comes in under can be a crap shoot as others get spent chasing. Terrain could be one of those to fill out a tri or super at a price. User in Tri 3rd

Papa Clem: Ran a decent 4th over the muddy strip at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby. At one point looked like a strong candidate to run a big race in the Preakness, but a slow breeze and some mixed signals, makes me wonder. He ran a big race in the Arkansas Derby and could be tailing off, interesting prospect, but am leaning against using at this point in the top spot. Slow work since, but not always the best indicator of a horses readiness since the Derby was only 2 weeks ago. User in Tri 3rd

General Quarters: The feel good story of the spring. Involved in a minor accident in the van ride over before the Preakness Stakes. Worked okay since, will be making his 13th career start, more than any other horse in the race. Would have to get the right set up, and make a strong closing bid. A small share is possible. User in Tri 3rd

Pioneerof the Nile: Looked like he was going to take over at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby and give Bob Baffert another Kentucky Derby trophy. He could not keep it going over the muddy track. Has since had a strong 47 breeze in preparation for the Preakness Stakes. Bob Baffert will be looking to snag another Woodlawn Vase. It will not be easy, but everything indicates, that Pioneerof the Nile is ready for another strong effort in the Preakness Stakes, and is the one to fear if Rachel Alexandra can not get there first falters. Respect. User

Flying Private: Ate some mud at the start of the Kentucky Derby and had no interest from that point on, finishing way up the track. He will be a big price in this field. Ran a good second in the Lane’s End and ran respectable in the Arkansas Derby. Winning would be a mammoth upset, but hitting the board at bananas is not out of the question. Lukas confident Flying Private will run a good one. We thought he would be a good underneath horse in the Derby, and that was a wash. Give him another shot here. User

Take The Points: Skipped the Kentucky Derby for The Preakness Stakes. Will add blinkers for the first time in the Preakness Stakes and has been working lights out over the Belmont Training track. Ran behind top horses Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse, in a race where some will start going backwards, he could be the one going forward. Has a nice chance to hit the board with a big effort, and would not totally ignore. User

Tone It Down: The home town’s hope for Preakness Glory. The longest shot on the board would need many things to go right for an in the money finish. Horse just does not look fast enough. Kent D gets the mount in his return back to Maryland. Just a year ago, it was Big Brown. Not Using

Rachel Alexandra: Not even the Kentucky Derby winner Mind That Bird could keep Calvin Borel away from her. She is the fastest most talented horse in the race. Since turning three years old, has developed into an easy, spectacular front running machine. She is actually the oldest horse in the race being a January foal. She breaks from the perfect post position 13 and will have her eyes set on Big Drama from the start. Also gets a weight break. There is nothing to indicate she cannot run well here against colts. She is an incredibly easy runner who will get into the race without asking. She goes like the wind. She has never been asked for much, and if she is asked tomorrow, that spells trouble for the rest. She is gifted runner who is ready and willing to put on another super show. She is ready to prove she belongs today. Top Pick For The Win

Plays

Value in the win pool will be hard to find with Rachel. Keying her on top with some price horses could be the way to go, but will need one of those big prices to run 2nd. A cold exacta with Pioneerof the Nile is another option, but you are looking at possibly the top 2 choices.


Rachel Alexandra Top Pick For The Win

A 5 horse exacta box 3,9,10,11,13 $20

Triple Play 13/2,3,7,9,10,11/2,3,9,6,7,8,10,11 $42

Good Luck!

[1976man]

nice play. I used it exactly. Thanks

[ireneinwa]

stuck working so I couldn't get my ticket...
I wanted a $1 super 13,2,ALL, ALL =$121 ticket pay out over$2,900