Belmont Stakes Pick And Play: It's Dunkirk

[Stevie Belmont]

ThoroughbredZone’s Belmont Stakes Preview And Play

ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Dunkirk. Dunkirk looks primed to make a strong bounce back run after his dull Kentucky Derby effort. And a tremendous amount of respect to Mine That Bird who has every right to be pegged for the top spot in the Belmont Stakes. This is a tough call, and ThoroughbredZone has labored over this for awhile. I really like MTB and it would be great for the sport, and to see Calvin Borel win all three Triple Crown races would be something else. Below is a close up of each horse, and how they might do. And further down are a few ways you might want to play these guys.

Chocolate Candy: Chocolate Candy is an honest horse who has done all of his best running on a synthetic surface out in California. He will be running for the first time tomorrow on a fast, dirt surface. (track could still be wet) He has been pointed to the Belmont Stakes since he finished the Kentucky Derby. Super trainer Jerry Hollendorfer must be respected. He has put some nice stamina-building works into this horse, and a solid effort is expected. He was very wide in the Santa Anita Derby and still finished a fast rallying second to Pioneerof the Nile. His Kentucky Derby race was a poor effort, but that race is throw out, like it’s been for so many other horses. He will be making his 11th career start and has a good bottom to him. He is a solid finisher who should rebound off his Kentucky Derby effort. User Under

Dunkirk: The Kentucky Derby was a disaster from start to finish. The race is a complete toss. The 3.7 million dollar purchase has class, and talent. ThoroughbredZone covered his debut race back in January. He ran a powerful race against the top rated and ThoroughbredZone’s #1 Kentucky Derby Prospect Quality Road in the Florida Derby back in March. He launched a powerful move to hook and pass Quality Road, who was able to dig in and turn Dunkirk back on a very speed-favoring surface. Dunkirk did gallop out past Quality Road in the Florida Derby, which was a positive sign. There is no doubt that Quality Road was the best 3-year-old colt in the land at the time. Connections skipped the Preakness Stakes for the Belmont Stakes. Dunkirk has had three published workouts since the Kentucky Derby. He has had two fast breezes, followed by a slower breeze. And another positive sign is the fact that Todd Pletcher has indicated he has gained some weight since the Kentucky Derby. He looks sharp and ready to go. A much-improved effort is expected in the Belmont Stakes. Top Selection

Mr. Hot Stuff: He had a disaster of trip in the Kentucky Derby. He has still yet to run on a fast dirt surface. He has been working well over the Keeneland poly surface. He ran a good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but still would have to take it up several notches here to be considered a legitimate threat for top prize. However, he is eligible to improve in his first try on a fast dirt track. He looks to be a late developer. User Under

Summer Bird: Summer Bird is a lightly raced colt. He will add blinkers for the first time in the Belmont Stakes. He was closing well in the Arkansas Derby at a mile and an eighth at Oaklawn in April. The Kentucky Derby was a disaster, as it was for so many others. He would still have to improve a great deal to win. A strong pace and a late kick will help his cause. He should be a square price. 10-cent supers will be on the betting menu for the Belmont Stakes, and this horse fits the bill in the fourth spot at a big price. User Under

Luv Gov: He is one of two D. Wayne Lukas colts ready for action. He should be one of the early pacesetters along with Miner’s Escape. Luv Gov will me making his 12th career start, but he has yet to run a race that would indicate he could win a race of this magnitude. Luv Gov will go as far as he can on, or near the lead. Hanging in there late will be difficult. Sports a good 6 furlong work since the Preakness Stakes. Not Using

Charitable Man: The runaway winner of the Peter Pan Stakes last month is clearly the talk of the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has exuded confidence in him, stating that he would not change places with anyone. He will be making his third start off a lengthy layoff. He is eligible to improve, but ran a strong race in the Peter Pan just a month ago. He will have to come back and run another strong race to win the Belmont Stakes. He was behind a hot pace set by Hello Broadway in the Peter Pan, who eventually faded. Charitable Man looks like he could be on or near the lead in a stalking position. At some point during the stretch, he should have the lead, but will have to fend off Dunkirk and the hard charging Mine That Bird. That final furlong could be his undoing. Talent is there, and the confident connections are a plus. He is an interesting prospect. There are a combination of pros and cons with this horse. User Under


Mine That Bird: The upset Kentucky Derby winner, and hard charging runner-up in the Preakness Stakes is ready to give it another go in the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. And there is nothing to indicate he will not be ready to make another power packed late run. He proved his class in the Preakness running behind the best 3-year-old filly in the land Rachel Alexandra. He is a well-seasoned gelding who raced as a 2-year-old. Calvin Borel is extremely confident in this horse ability and has already stated he is the winner. In addition, ThoroughbredZone is confident in his ability. Mine That Bird is the most likely winner if Dunkirk cannot stay on for the mile and a half. If he once again comes with that same strong kick, he has shown in his two previous races, he is a huge threat to win two thirds of the Triple Crown. He has more pros than cons, of any other horse in the race. Who ever has the lead late will have to fend him off. Being a May foal, this guy might actually be getting better at this time of year. Some have indicated he is not a wise win play as a favorite, which is not the wisest way to handle the best horse in the race. I hope he runs well. User On Top And Under

Flying Private: The other D. Wayne Lukas entry. One of only two horses in the Belmont Stakes to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The other being Mine That Bird. This horse has been improving throughout the spring. He had some issues in the stretch of the Preakness Stakes, yet finished strongly to finish fourth. The Derby was a disaster and a throw out race. He will be making his 13th start of his career in the Belmont Stakes, making him the most experienced horse in the race. He also fired off a career best speed figure in the Preakness Stakes. Another strong rally in the long Belmont Stretch, and he could make an impact. I feel this horse could pose the biggest upset threat of any horse in the race. D. Wayne Lukas has had success in the Belmont Stakes with four wins. Flying Private has all the indications he is ready to run another good race. User, and If he is better than 10/1…A Saver win bet.

Miner’s Escape: Miner’s Escape is coming off a front-running win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 2, 2009. There is little doubt he will be forwardly placed right out of the gate in the Belmont Stakes, to help set up a late run of Brave Victory, who is by the same owner Robert LaPenta and trained by Nick Zito. Nick Zito has been the man in recent years with upset wins in the Belmont Stakes, and both of his horses tomorrow will be over bet. Miner’s Escape will go as far as he can on the front end, and looks to duplicate Da’Tara’s front running Belmont win of a year ago. To say that for him to go gate to wire in an impossibility might be an over statement, but that is exactly what the plans are with him. He has a good foundation and you know Nick has had his eyes on the Belmont for a while. User Under

Brave Victory: The other half of the uncoupled Nick Zito/Robert LaPenta entry. Brave Victory will be making his fourth start off a layoff, and looks to be cycling to a top effort in the Belmont Stakes. He has had two nice breezes since his good third place finish to Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes. Another move forward is more than possible, as Nick Zito has probably mapped out a path to the Belmont Stakes some time ago. A top effort is expected. Whether that top effort is good enough for the win remains to be seen, but an on the board finish is not out of the question for Nick Zito who knows how to get one ready for the Belmont. Both of Nick Zito’s horses will probably be over bet considering his recent success in the Belmont Stakes. User Under

Belmont Stakes Plays


Dunkirk - Top Pick For The Win

Dunkirk-Mine That Bird Exacta Box

Flying Private - Saver Win Bet

10-Cent Supers are on the betting menu, and they offer an opportunity to spread around with some price horses. So going with the 10-super could very well be a way to go…

2,7 / 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 /1,3,4,8,9,10 / 1,3,4,8,9,10 $28

And a Super Saver Play With Belmont Boys On Top

8,9,10/8,9,10/2,6,7/2,6,7 $3.60

All in all a real blockbuster day of racing at Belmont Park. 6 stakes races. The True North, Just A Game, Woody Stephens, Acorn, Manhattan and The Belmont Stakes to cap it off. There is also a 1 million dollar Pick 4 and Pick 6.

Fabulous Strike looks primed in the True North…

We will give some updates at Belmont if there is anything of importance. Also try to get some tweets from the paddock if any horse in particular stands out. And an eye will be on Monmouth Park of course.

[ratherrapid]

Nice analysis!

[Stevie Belmont]

Thanks for the words

The winner was not a shock at all. Had a nice late kick and was pointed to this race.

Dunkirk ran a great race. He was on the lead most of the way, passed by Charitable Man, and dug in for more in the stretch. He was as game as he could be. Happy with the way he ran.

I have snap shot up from the Belmont on my homepage

http://www.ThoroughbredZone.Com

[HR LLC]

nice...I like your webiste...