Conformation in your handicapping equation?

Toccet02 · Postby **Toccet02** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 12:28 pm

For those of you who would consider yourselves knowledgeable about confo: When you have a chance to view horses in paddock/post parade, do you look for this and factor it in?

Taff · Postby **Taff** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 1:33 pm

You may like to check out www.b2yor.co.uk
Mostly maiden races in the U.K. good articles about athetism/comformation etc, hope that helps.

Toccet02 · Postby **Toccet02** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 2:10 pm

Wow. Interesting site. Obviously I'm not alone in considering this carefully. But then again, there are the Seabiscuits of the world . . . Thanks! But do you study this stuff and apply at the track?

Taff · Postby **Taff** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 3:56 pm

Toccet02 wrote: But do you study this stuff and apply at the track?

Yes I do study the 2 year old races, but bet online mainly on Betfair.

Shammy Davis · Postby **Shammy Davis** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:01 pm

Tocceto2 posted:

For those of you who would consider yourselves knowledgeable about confo: When you have a chance to view horses in paddock/post parade, do you look for this and factor it in?

Too late for that.

I look for injury/awkward gait, nervousness, or lack of conditioning in the paddock and during the post parade. Other than that I keep my nose in the form. I think you've got to assume that conformation, or lack thereof, was taken into account during the purchase or initial training process. Considering what it takes to get a horse to the track in time and $, I've got to be confident that a knowledgeable agent, owner, or trainer thought the pony could run.

If the pony can run, the works or PP's will show it. With MSW, I assume that the morning line is in line with the horse's potential.

But what do I know? I liked Fresian Fire in Derby and then went with him again in the Preakness.

Barn 31 T-breds · Postby **Barn 31 T-breds** » Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:03 pm

When purchasing a horse, conformation is of critical importance. When handicapping - especially if the horse has a race record - not so much.

When handicapping, one only needs concern himself with the horse's very next race.

When buying a horse, there is a need to consider those things that will affect the rest of its career, because you may have the horse that long.

This past week I had a horse bought off his race record, pending an examination. I drove three hours to get to the horse, saw that he was splay footed, and knew within seconds that I didn't want the colt.

However, he was entered a few days later and, as a handicapper, I thought he had an excellent chance to win.

Just because I wouldn't buy him didn't mean I wouldn't bet him.

Toccet02 · Postby **Toccet02** » Tue Jun 02, 2009 7:42 am

I think you've got to assume that conformation, or lack thereof, was taken into account during the purchase or initial training process.

You know, I'm not so sure at times. But that's a question for another thread!

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Tue Jun 02, 2009 6:34 pm

If you consider the overall 'look' of the horse in the paddock and coming onto the track, you can certainly pick up the ones that aren't 'ready' for their best effort. I love to watch a new 2yo step onto the track with confidence. I watched one last year entered in a 2yo stake at Cnl that was just the picture of quality, and he ran like it. So much of motion efficiency is tied into attitude so that a horse that could actually gallop well will be mechanically a mess if his neurons aren't firing. Some of that is related to physical conformation and training as well obviously. Conformationally, if his training has been good his musculature will be what its supposed to be.

jm

Dave C · Postby **Dave C** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 7:07 am

I don't have the opportunity to make it down to the track regularly anymore but conformational analysis can be very useful in eliminating horses from betting consideration. Particularly with young horses being asked to go further for the first time. A horse may be 3 for 3 at sprint distances and the trainer/owner wants to see if they can get 8f+, the horse may be a dead favourite on the board, but conformational analysis may tell you that he is a sprinter and won't get the distance against the horses he's in against. Conformational analysis won't make a difference in handicapping most races, but under certain circumstances it can yield good profits just like any other handicapping technique.

Toccet02 · Postby **Toccet02** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 7:47 am

Dave C wrote:I don't have the opportunity to make it down to the track regularly anymore but conformational analysis can be very useful in eliminating horses from betting consideration. Particularly with young horses being asked to go further for the first time. A horse may be 3 for 3 at sprint distances and the trainer/owner wants to see if they can get 8f+, the horse may be a dead favourite on the board, but conformational analysis may tell you that he is a sprinter and won't get the distance against the horses he's in against. Conformational analysis won't make a difference in handicapping most races, but under certain circumstances it can yield good profits just like any other handicapping technique.

Yes, that's the kind of thing I was thinking of.

Also, to be a bit brutal, some horses have confo faults that lead to interference, and they are more likely to trip themselves up. I don't want any horse to get hurt, but if I suspect they are more likely to, I won't bet on them in case it happens in the very race I'm betting on. Maybe that's sick . . . but it's pragmatic.

Shammy Davis · Postby **Shammy Davis** » Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:26 am

http://www.joe-takach.com/_Recent_Artic ... rview.html