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PostPosted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:16 pm 
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No, Dead End Street is not the name of horse.

There hasn't been a post on this forum for 30 days and it has become a dead end street. I wish those who are evaluating individual races would move over here and ease the clutter on the Racing Forum. JMO.

Secondly, I've always used the Track M/L as a starting point for my handicapping. I've been watching TVG for a number of years and many of the analyst talk about developing your morning line. Where do you start with this? I haven't a clue.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:24 am 
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Interesting that you should bring that up, Shammy. I heard a TVG analyst a few days ago talking about developing your own morning line and I wondered myself what was meant by that and what could possibly be gained by it.

I know that morning lines are supposed to be set such that the best guesses as to how the public will bet are reflected in odds, but I don't know how setting one's own morning line would be helpful.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:23 am 
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What they mean by doing this is writing down the odds of the horses that you think they should be. Then checking that against what the public actually bet the horses to be, see what the difference is?

Usually money on a horse speaks volumes, a lot more than previous form.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:52 pm 
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dublino wrote:
What they mean by doing this is writing down the odds of the horses that you think they should be. Then checking that against what the public actually bet the horses to be, see what the difference is?

Usually money on a horse speaks volumes, a lot more than previous form.


I do see what the difference is. What I don't understand is how it helps my handicapping, unless there's insider buzz for a particular horse that might be revealed. However, in that case I would have thought that the published morning line would be sufficient to identify such a horse.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:56 pm 
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Geowarrior posted:
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. . . However, in that case I would have thought that the published morning line would be sufficient to identify such a horse.
I think they are saying that the track M/L may not be right and therefore you should create your own morning line.

I don't see much sense in it myself. Unless, I see information to prove otherwise, I immediately eliminate any horse over 15-1. I figure I need to focus on horses that the track handicapper thinks has a chance. All of us have been surprised, but for the most part anything under 15 puts me in the ball park. I'm sure others have a technique to get them in the ball park.

I think the TVG analysts are confusing us. I dont need any help to get confused. I'm confused most of the day.

Now if we can only get the pedigree board's handicappers to move their opinions over to this forum.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:07 pm 
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i'm sure someone has that named pegged for a street cry here soon.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:13 pm 
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i don't use morning line odds, becuase what they are and what they are supposed to be are usually two different things. for instance, the breeders cup M/L odds are not a true indication of the betting public, it's more of an idncation of his socal love fest he has going on.

some of the odds ni that race are just plain laughable. like when the morning line odd maker had smarty deb at 30 to 1 simply becuase she was from emerald downs and didnt' botehr to do any resrach on her and she opened up at 4 to 1 by the time betting started.

i bet with real money and I say that to say, I refuse to toss at 15- 20 to one shot becuse SOMEONE ELSE doesn't like him.

99 out of 100 times i'd probably toss him myself. but let me toss him.

Look at the breeders cup for isntance.

20 to 1 alkanite finished freaking 2nd and by second, in the breeders cup futirity. as a reference, square eddit last year's winner went off at by like a half a length, he's getting more ground this race out, it was on the faket his is on the fake, and he's 20 to 1, simply bec asue jon white didnt' know who he was or he wasn't based in socal. last year terrian came in second but got taken behind the woodshed by about 8 legnths, and was 15 to 1.

this horse loses by no more than a half a lenth, a closing one at that and the public is going to think he's 20 t0 1. okay.

gangbuster will not go off at 30 t0 1. he's better than that. not favorate better, but better than 30 to 1.


that one horse i toss can make the difference between me having a good month or a bad month.

this game is hard enough as it is. I dont' want to make it harder by auto tossing a hosre based on someone else's opinion.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:26 pm 
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20 to 1 alkanite finished freaking 2nd and by second, in the breeders cup futirity. as a reference, square eddit last year's winner went off at by like a half a length, he's getting more ground this race out, it was on the faket his is on the fake, and he's 20 to 1, simply bec asue jon white didnt' know who he was or he wasn't based in socal. last year terrian came in second but got taken behind the woodshed by about 8 legnths, and was 15 to 1.


bdw, obviously you feel strongly about this? :shock: Seems as though you got some fingers transposed on the keyboard.[/quote]


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 9:19 am 
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geowarrior wrote:
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20 to 1 alkanite finished freaking 2nd and by second, in the breeders cup futirity. as a reference, square eddit last year's winner went off at by like a half a length, he's getting more ground this race out, it was on the faket his is on the fake, and he's 20 to 1, simply bec asue jon white didnt' know who he was or he wasn't based in socal. last year terrian came in second but got taken behind the woodshed by about 8 legnths, and was 15 to 1.


bdw, obviously you feel strongly about this? :shock: Seems as though you got some fingers transposed on the keyboard.
[/quote]

yes I feel if you have the responsbility to make a morning line y ou have the responsbility to be fair and balanced.

20 to 1 on a horse with that type of talent, that type of easy to see talent, is unjustifyable.

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