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 Post subject: Saturday's BC picks
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:33 am 
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I'm putting this per request in the handicapping section because..well.. it's handicapping

after watching the first day of racing, and having some things be brought to my attention, my picks are changing so I thought i would p;ost them here for fun

first, I have come to realize that anything that Too Pletcher, Gdolphin or Coolmore sends out in the breeders cup is a sucker bet.

Todd Pletcher is 3 for 56, Coolmore is 1 for it's last 26 (with the 1 coming yesterday with man of iron, they were 0 for 24 before yesterday) and Godlophin has not won a breeders cup since fantastic light did in 01 and are 2 for 27 overall.

those are stats that, they are just oging ot have to beat me with.


the turf is speed indusive as well and the pro ride well.. isn't.


Breeders cup juvenille turf:

Exacta Box bridgetown / pounced

turf sprint:

win: Noble Court / Gotta Have her/ desert code
place: Silver timber / noble court / gotta have her / desert code
show: noble court / silver timber / noble court / gotta have her / desert code /cannon ball
4th place: noble court / gotta have her / desert code / gotta have her / silver timber / cannon ball

(yes i'm trying to get paid)


Sprint:

Win: Crown of Thornws / Fatal Bullet
place: Crown of Thornws/ Fatael Bullet / Gayego
Show: Crown of Thornws / Fatel Bullet / Gayego / Zenzational


Juvenille:

trifecta box on Piscitelli, Noble's Promise and Looklin at lucky



Mile:

Win: justenoughuumor
place: goldkikova / courageous cat / Zacinto
Show: goldkiva / courageous cat / zacinto


Dirt mile:

Win: Neko Bay (large win bet as well, I really like him in this race)
Place: Fatherst land / midshipman
show: farthest land / midshipman / mr sidney

Turf:

not really a money making race

win; precious passon


Classic:

not really a money making race either

Box Zenyatta, Richard's Kid and Gio ponti



pick 6

race 5: Noble Court, Gotta Have her, Cannonball
race 6: justenoughhumor, goldkiova
race 7: Neko bay
race 8: precious passion, condiuit
race 9: zenyatta
race 10:battle of hastings, oil man

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:32 pm 
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:(


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:42 pm 
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Some of your picks did very well, bdw.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:55 pm 
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thanks.

what could have been (Damn vale of york) and I still made silly mistakes like not putting goldkiova on top. that was just idiotic.

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:09 pm 
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Yes admittedly I thought you should have had Goldikova on top, but you had a lot of insight, bdw, in selecting horses that others were saying had no class, such as Courageous Cat, Furthest Land. Also hitting your box in the Classic was cool, as it was extremely difficult to handicap that race.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:12 pm 
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By the way, speaking of handicapping, did you see that the guy who won the ten thousand dollar roll on TVG bet it to win on Goldikova? Apparently he almost bet Ventura yesterday, and almost bet Zensational and Lookin At Lucky today before settling on Goldikova.

That's a guy that knows when to hold 'em!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:14 pm 
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my day is about what could have been. I think i'm a very good handicapper but i dont' think my bets out as much as I should.

I actually didn't playhat box. what i played was, exactly:

Win: Zenyatta
Place: Gio ponti, Richard's kid
Show: Gio Ponti, Richar'ds Kid, Einstien
4th: Gio Ponti, Richardk's Kid, Einstinn, Twice over


the way i bet is i go down and look where i cna make money. Z to win is not going to pay enough for me to be.

the extcta, tri and super would have so Played there

I had no reason whasoever to elave twice over off my tri ticket and i did and I lost about what.. 400ish bucks becuase of it?

same with the mile. I had no reason whatosever to not cuver my basis with goldkiova but i got cute for no reason. handicapped the race basically right, still didn't make money.

anyway, had a pretty damn good day but i could have had an epic one had I put more thought into my bets and had vale of york never been born.

also how was gung ho about precious passion and completely forgot about california flag, I was sick about half way through the race of the turf sprint. i know he was going to win, simply becuase i threw him out.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:17 am 
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bdw0617, don't get down. You made a good effort.

I heard some advice many years ago, that I've followed. In the really big races, don't bet against the chalk. I've accepted that to mean, unless you have word from spirits above (not the kind you drink) that another horse is going to win, keep your money in your pocket so you can spend it another day.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:32 am 
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I did pretty darned well Saturday.
I am a 1$ bettor and love to play exotics.
My angle was tossing all dirt horses out on the synth races and was playing for the conditions of fast turf.
Had a blast and won just over 500 with very little "boxing" involved.
As much as I hate synth for determining dirt champions, it's fairly easy to handicap IMO.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:02 am 
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keys to success breeders cup edition:


1)toss everything todd pletcher sends. trust me. just do it. he will not beat you. I don't care if he is saddling dr fager.

2) toss everyting coolmore sends over. they crap shoot and want one of their horses to run big so they can get success with dirt mares at stud. very rarly do they actually fit in races. Adian is 1 for his last 28, the one being man of iron. he was 0 for 25. the last time they won a race at breeders cup before friday was high chapparal

3) toss everything godolphin sends. Bin Surror is 2 for 26, more than that now, that was going into the week. let's say 3 for 39. half their horses harly ever figure. pyro on synethics. giromomo on synethics going 10F FTL. yes, vale of york beat me, but I saved alot of money tossing everything they sent.

4) the single most important factor to handicapping the breeders cup is WATCHING TO SEE WHO ACTUALLY PAID A NOMINATION FEE

every year, some bomb hits and the guy paid like 200k just to run in the race. this year it was dancing in silks.

5) unless garret gomez is on just a standout (like midnight lute or indian blessing) stay away. there is a reason he's never won a kentucky derby. he constantly gets schooled and loses races with horrible timing.

6) when dealing with synethics, you have to get rid of the idea of "class". Yes I know cocoa beach is this world class mare I dont' are how great she is on dirt,k you have to toss her.

you have to MAKE horses do things they have never done in the past to beat you. a dirt horse is going to have to win on synethics. a horse shipping in from europe running on turf is going to have to beat me running on the fake stuff. I don't care how great his creditionals is (i.e mastercrasfsman).

when dealing with pro ride, and horse that has done well on THAT course should move to the top of your list.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:06 am 
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Shammy Davis wrote:
bdw0617, don't get down. You made a good effort.

I heard some advice many years ago, that I've followed. In the really big races, don't bet against the chalk. I've accepted that to mean, unless you have word from spirits above (not the kind you drink) that another horse is going to win, keep your money in your pocket so you can spend it another day.


actually it's quite the oppoiste.

big races are the races where you really need to do your handicapping.

Big races are influced too much by the mainstrea media, who don't know jack shit about handicapping. they listen to bob baffert talk about how great his filly or colt is working and everyone talks about how he cant' lose. Bob Bafferts horses are always an overlay.

look at zenzational. he is "the beast". if you did your handicapping you owuld have known he had no chance in hell to win that race. he was going to break late and get trapped and that was the end of the race for him. and that's exactly what happened.

I trust my ability to handicap a race. If I like a 20 to 1 shot, I have no qualms about backing him. I will be right I will be wrong. hell i'm wrong about 3 to 1 shots sometimes so what's the difference?

couragous cat for instance, when you look at his pedigree, you realize that he's been running way too far, 9-10 furlongs, he's got a miler pedigree and the BC mile was his first race at a mile.

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