Preakness Preview

[Stevie Belmont]

Preakness Stakes Preview

The Preakness Stakes has been the most formful race of the Triple Crown Series to handicap in recent years. The last 20 Preakness Stakes have seen 17 winners who have emerged from the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who went on to win the Preakness who did not compete in the Kentucky Derby over that time period were Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. The Preakness will have five horses that ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby—Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend.

Super Saver will be gunning to win the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown when he enters the starting gate in the Preakness Stakes. The Kentucky Derby Champion will be making his 4th start in his current form cycle, and everything points to another strong effort in the Preakness Stakes. Super Saver has also worked since his Kentucky Derby win—a 3 furlong breeze in 36 on May 10. He is fit and ready—there is a lot to like.

Lookin At Lucky has been dogged by bad luck in his last two starts. In the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he endured nightmare trips. In an attempt to change Lookin At Lucky’s luck, or lack there of, trainer Bob Baffert decided to make a jockey change. Martin Garcia will replace Garrett Gomez in the saddle for the Preakness Stakes. The 2-year-old champion from 2009 has yet to have a chance to uncork a solid rally with out getting into any trouble in the process. If Lookin At Lucky gets a clean trip, there is nothing to indicate he can’t show up on the scene with a big effort. In both the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he was able to re-rally and finish well. He is the most likely horse to give Super Saver a legitimate run for the money. In what could be a sign that Lookin At Lucky’s bad luck is already changing, he drew post-position #7—or in this case it might be the lucky #7.

The rest of the field will be looking to spring the upset. The other three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend.

Paddy O’Prado came from well back in the Derby to finish with a rush to get 3rd. Oddly enough the Preakness Stakes will be his first career start on a fast dry track. The Preakness looks like the pace will not be nearly as quick as it was at Churchill Downs. Expect Paddy O’Prado to be closer in the Preakness. The only question is whether he will be able to duplicate his strong run in the Kentucky Derby.

Dublin ran a decent race in the Kentucky Derby. He made a bold move turning for home only to run into to traffic issues. I am still not sure is Dublin wants to run this far. Garrett Gomez replaces Terry Thompson in the saddle for the Preakness. D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness Stakes five times.

Jackson Bend is coming into the Preakness off a 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He certainly did not have the best of trips. Jackson Bend might be at his best under a mile. The mile-and-three-sixteenths looks to be out of his range. He had a fantastic 4 furlong breeze in 46 on May 10. Jackson Bend has good tactical speed and could be one of the horses that decides to go to the lead.

The new shooters make up the rest of the field. The most intriguing new shooter of the group is Schoolyard Dreams—who finished just a nip ahaead of Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby. That was back in March and Super Saver has improved two-fold since that race. Schoolyard Dreams will be coming into the Preakness off a pair of very sharp 5 furlong breezes. Trainer Derek Ryan who campaigned Musket Man last year to back-to-back 3rd place finishes in the the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes should not be totally ignored.

Akenite is the other Todd Pletcher trainee to run in the Preakness Stakes. He is coming in off a good 2nd place finish in the Derby Trial to Hurricane Ike. The added distance should help his cause, and he will be making his 3rd start off the layoff—two positives. He would need to take a large step forward to threaten for top honors.

Pleasant Prince has been working lights out for trainer Michael Maker. Pleasant Prince came up a nose hair short of defeating Ice Box in the Florida Derby. A late sustained rally is expected from him in the Preakness. A slow pace could hinder his chances however.

Yawanna Twist, Northern Giant, Caracortado and First Dude round the field for the 135th Preakness Stakes. Yawanna Twist is a quick New York Bred who will be trying a distance that is probably a bit too far for him, but do not be stunned if Yawanna Twist decides to take the fight to them and go right to the lead in a race where there is no clear cut speed horse. Caracortado might have run his best races at 2–makes 4th start off the layoff, going this far might be out of his range. He gets the benefit of the doubt however. He did get a bad trip in the Santa Anita. He has some speed and he could very well be another one that will possibly try to take over on the front end. He comes in working well for this. First Dude comes into the Preakness with a pair of sharp 5 furlong breezes–a winner at a mile-and-eighth and ran second to Dwyer winner Fly Down twice.

How to bet the Preakness Stakes

I am going to key the top two choices—Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the 1st and 2nd slot and wheel the rest of the field for 3rd for a $1—a $20 investment. If I see a vulnerable favorite—I always try to beat them, but these two look solid. Usually I do not make this bet, but as mentioned above the Preakness has been a formful race in recent years. The hope is one of the longer shots can get up for 3rd. You certainly won’t get rich with this bet, but it’s a decent priced bet and you will certainly get in on the action. If all goes well the chance to make a profit does exist. Superfectas with the same strategy for 3rd & 4th place is also an option.

Ticket 7,8/7,8/All $1 Trifecta $20

If you are not found of either Super Saver or Lookin At Lucky—take a shot against both of them. Schoolyard Dreams might have the best chance of the new shooters to threaten for the upset win. The rest of the field will offer good prices. Paddy O’Prado in all likely hood will not go off as high as some of the horses already mentioned.

Another bet that might be a good idea instead of the trifecta is a 5 horse exacta box. If you are not crazy about Lookin At Lucky– you can box 5 horses who have run well or won at a mile-and-an-eighth—Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, Pleasant Prince and First Dude. Schoolyard Dreams sports two great works for this. You get the post time favorite in there, but the four others should offer value.

Ticket 2,3,8,10,11 $1 Exacta Box $20

Super Saver has a great chance to have a shot at running for the Triple Crown in three weeks at Belmont Park, but leave no doubt Lookin At Lucky will do everything he can to derail that bid—and is capable with a top effort—if luck finally decides to go his way. A thrilling stretch battle with Super Saver could be in the works. Good luck!