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 Post subject: Belmont Stamina
PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:48 am 
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Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Posts: 1936
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Listed below are the stamina numbers for the potential Belmont entrants. The numbers are derived from an evaluation (application) of the female influences within the pedigree (Modern Conduit Mares). The lower the number the more perceived stamina. Also listed are the tail female (Conduit Mare) aptitudinal designations and significant winners tracing to the conduit mare.

Interactif (1.21) Dona Cecilia (B/C) CCA Oaks winner, My Flag. Two Broodmares of the Year.

Spangled Star (0.83) Hamburg Belle (I) Florida Oaks winner, Anklet, G1 SW Bullsbay, multiple graded stakes winner, Grecian Flight.

First Dude (1.10) Rambling Rose (B/P) A.P. Indy, Lemon Drop Kid, Summer Squall. Two Broodmares of the Year.

Drosselmeyer (1.02) Consuelo (B) Kentucky Derby winner George Smith, G2 stakes winner Hawkins Special, Multiple graded stakes winner Golden Ballet.

Ice Box (0.82) Doxa (B/P) via LaTroienne's half sister Adargatis. Three Kentucky Derby winners, three Preakness winners, two CCA Oaks winners, one St Leger stakes winner, and two Broodmares of the year trace to Doxa via LaTroienne. Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck, 'Arc winner Ardan, and Jockey Club stakes winner Pardal trace to Doxa via Adargatis.

Make Music For Me (0.92) Slippers (C/S) Graded stakes winners, Champagne Charlie, Lady Dulcinea, Heavenly Cause, Queen of Wilshire, El Basco, and Bounding Basque (who equaled a track record for 10 furlongs).

Stately Victor (1.27) Court Dress (B/C) Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic, Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go, 2000 Guineas winners Refuse To Bend and Rock of Gibraltar, and G1 winner, Champion two-year-old, and leading sire, Deputy Minister.

Game On Dude (0.86) Paraffine Lass (S) Preakness winner Master Derby, Oaks Stakes and St Leger winner Sun Princess, and St Leger Stakes winner Millenary.

Dave in Dixie (0.77) Adana (I/S) CCA Oaks winner, Horse of the Year, and Hall-of-Fame winner, Twilight Tear, G1 stakes placed winner and sire Stolen Gold, and graded stakes winner Nightmare Affair.

Stay Put (0.86) Last Line (I/C) Graded stakes winners Top Corsage, Single Dawn (won 12 stakes), Doremisollatido, Croeso, Ide, Super Max, and Slewpy.

Fly Down (1.04) Tangle (B/S) G1 winner Giant's Causeway and his brother Freud, G1 winner Leroidesanimaux, Graded stakes winners It's Your Pleasure, Leroy S, Banks Hill, Champs Elysees, So Factual, and Hawksley Hill. Irish Champion two-year-old filly Sooker, American Champion two-year-old filly Dearly Precious, and SW Promising Lead (3 wins at 10 furlongs).

Uptowncharlybrown (0.80) Frizette (B/P) Too many to list individually. Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew leads the list. All told there are three 'Arc winners, two Kentucky Derby winners, two 2000 Guineas winners, an Epsom Derby winner, a Preakness winner, a Breeders Cup Classic winner a CCA Oaks winner, a St Leger winner, and two broodmares of the Year tracing to Frizette.

My superfecta box will be: Dave in Dixie, Uptowncharlybrown, Ice Box, and Spangled Star.
Looking for a price, I will probably bet Spangled Star to win.

Bill

_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes


Last edited by Bill from WA on Sun Jun 06, 2010 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 3:54 am 
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Weanling

Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 2:28 pm
Posts: 28
Thanks Bill... I can't tell you how happy I am to see you posting again.
Are you going to be publishing an update CMP book ? There is a growing interest in your work.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 5:36 am 
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Chef de Race: Classic

Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Posts: 4451
Bill: I don't know about any other horse but ICE BOX, but there have been suggestions for years that horses, like ICE BOX, who run well off the pace and come from far back of the field don't fair well in the Belmont Stakes. I've heard a couple of DRF handicappers commenting on HRTV that to have a chance in the Belmont, horses must run just off the lead. There has been a great deal of praise for the works of Fly Down.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:29 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Posts: 1936
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Hi Shammy
I think you are right about the need to stay closer to the pace in the Belmont. Deep closers rarely get there in time. The pace, as usual, will be the key.

Stamina numbers for the Belmont Stakes winners 2000-2009

2009: Summer Bird: (1.10) Black Velvet (B) Phone Chatter, (Breeders Cup Fillies, Oak leaf Stakes), G3 stakes winner and sire Relaunch, Multiple G1 stakes winner Highland Blade, G2 stakes winners Zen and Topicount, Preakness winner Fabius (2nd Kentucky Derby, 3rd in the Belmont), and Triple Bend (Santa Anita Handicap, 2nd in the Charles Strub Stakes at 10 furlongs.

2008: Da Tara: (1.06) Princess Mary (B/S) G1 winner Private Persuasion, G3 winner Denis of Cork (2nd Belmont, 3rd Kentucky Derby), Spinaway Stakes winner Maecloud, Kentucky Derby winner Flying Ebony, G1 stakes winner Mistical Plan, and G3 stakes winner Windsor Castle.

2007: Rags To Riches: (0.73) Torpenhow (I/S) This is one of the most productive families in thoroughbred history. There are too many G1 winners and great runners to mention. A few are: Champion Nijinsky II, The Minstrel, El Gran Senor, Belmont winner Jazil, European Champion Xaar, Kentucky Oaks winner Blush With Pride, English Champion Malinowski, multiple G1 stakes winner and sire Aldebaran, G1 stakes winners Good Journey, Denon, and Spinning World, plus, Broodmares of the year Better Than Honour and Best In Show. I could go on for pages, but you get the idea. Regal!

2006: Jazil: (0.95) Torpenhow (I/S) See Rags To Riches above. There are more speed contributions via Jazil's sire, Seeking the Gold (but this family is emerging as a stamina contributor), but obviously, the dam's influence took charge in the 2006 Belmont.

2005: Afleet Alex: (0.84) Remembrance (B/S) Near Triple Crown winner Twenty Grand (won Kentucky Derby and Belmont, 2nd in the Preakness. He also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 2 miles), Frizette Stakes winner Capelet, multiple stakes winner and producer Quill, and the Graded stakes winners Picolo Wedding Party, Asian Jane, Exploding Lady, Belgravia, Qualique, Vale Mantovani and Kilgowan.

2004: Birdstone: (0.65) Belmont Stakes winner and influential sire Blue Larkspur, multiple stakes winner and sire Relic, two-year-old Champion Miss Jemima, Kentucky Oaks winner Bird Town, multiple stakes winner Befuddle (3rd Kentucky Oaks), G1 winning hurdler Kilbride Rd., Broodmare of the year Dear Birdie, and the Graded Stakes winners Northern Premier, Asher, and Hush Dear.

2003: Empire Maker: (0.71) Preakness winner Funny Cide, G1 stakes winner and Broodmare of the Year Toussaud, Arlington Million winner Chester House, Leading sire Alibhai, Irish Oaks winner Theresina, and the graded stakes winners Chiselling, Decarchy, Honest Lady, First Defence, Image of Reality and Indygo Shiner.

2002: Point Given: (0.92) Broodmare of the year Turko's Turn, graded stakes winners Dignitas, Grand Continental, Incredible Touch, Badger Land (4th in the Preakness), Medjool, and the influential sire Teddy.

2001: Commendable: (0.89) Epsom Oaks winner Pia, Breeders Cup Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect, G1 stakes winner and sire Fappiano, G1 stakes winner (2nd BC Distaff) Clabber Girl, Kentucky Oaks winner Keeper Hill (2nd CCA Oaks), stakes winner and sire Honour and Glory, G1 winner and sire Ogygian, Acorn Stakes winner Hostility, and the influential sires Admiral Drake, Bull Dog, Sir Gallahad, and Bois Roussel.

2000: Lemon Drop Kid: (0.83) European Champion Duke of Marmalade, European Champion Filly Gay Gallanta, Broodmares of the Year Weekend Surprise and Toll Booth, Belmont Stakes winner and sire A.P. Indy, G1 stakes winners Summer Squall, Court Vision, Gay Mecene, Wolfhound, Sauce Boat, and the stakes winners Gay Missile, Lassie Dear, Raja Baba, Noble Impulse (3rd Preakness), Blazing Count (2nd Belmont) and the multiple stakes winner Iron Ruler.

The average stamina number for the winners of the last ten Belmont Stakes is 0.87, with a high of 1.10 (Summer Bird) and a low of 0.65 (Birdstone). Six of the ten winners had a Broodmare of the Year in the female family.

Bill

_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:39 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Posts: 1936
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Hi KonaNative

I won't be publishing any more MCM books. As I near 80 years of age, I just don't have the necessary energy to keep it up. I have an individual who is interested in taking over, but no timeframe right now. The Belmont this year just perked my interest, so I did a little work, but don't plan on getting too much involved in things until Breeders Cup (if this current stage of well being continues).
Thanks a lot for the good wishes.

Bill

_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes


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