Back to Pedigree Query
It is currently Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:00 am

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 
Author Message
PostPosted: Mon Nov 15, 2010 6:11 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2021
Location: New Jersey
TJ

Rule 1: Horses that have a triple Beyer advantage, that is, the horse's three most recent Beyer figures are higher than any other entrant's three most recent figures, are automatic plays.

Rule 2: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses, that is, the horse's two most recent Beyer figures are higher than any other entrant's two most recent figures, that has not raced within 30 days. You can fudge this rule a little if the horse has a good workout (average of 12 seconds a furlong) within 10 days of today's race.

Rule 3: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that have not won, finished in the money or finished more than 4 lengths behind the winner in their most recent race.

Rule 4: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are making a change in distance, that is, from sprint (races under a mile) to route (races over a mile) or route to a sprint.

Rule 5: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are making a change in racing surface, dirt to turf or turf to dirt. Synthetic tracks can be treated as turf tracks for this rule.

Rule 6: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are dropping in class (level of competition). Drop-downs are risky at best for a number of reasons. The drop may indicate a lack of trainer and/or owner confidence, and drop-downs do not offer much in the way of value for your wagers because drop-downs are routinely pounded at the window and the risk seldom outweighs the return.

My research for this project demonstrated no particular advantage for types of races, i.e., stakes, allowance, claiming or maiden.

Hope it will get you a few winners. One thing I will add is the fact that the win/place percentage of this play continues to be a little over 80% and very close to 90% for an in the money finish so these plays are very good for key trifecta bets.

DDT


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 15, 2010 8:30 pm 
Offline
Grade III Winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
Posts: 1145
Location: Home of the brave.
Interesting handicapping angle . . . of what use is your system, of what contribution is your system, of what significance is your system if you can't make any money using it?

Please provide return on investment data.

_________________
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 15, 2010 10:23 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2021
Location: New Jersey
Whirlaway

1. It provides a 70% win percentage and a very good ROI. What makes you think you cannot make any money with it?

2. The use and significance of the system is it has provided winners at that 70% rate for over 10 years.

3. If you really are interested in the article go to americanturfmonthly.com and order a back copy of the issue, but I get the feeling you just want to argue, so you are free to think it is of no use and no significance, I happen to think otherwise and from the amount and nature of the mail I received after it was published, not only from the USA but from Canada as well, other handicappers also share my opinion.

Again, I really do not care what you think, but of course if you have the opinion that you could do better, have at it. And by the way, does Dr. Roman know that you posted that DRF clip from his web pages?


DDT


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:03 am 
Offline
Darley line
User avatar

Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Posts: 6236
Location: FL, NY
DDT wrote:
TJ

Rule 1: Horses that have a triple Beyer advantage, that is, the horse's three most recent Beyer figures are higher than any other entrant's three most recent figures, are automatic plays.

Rule 2: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses, that is, the horse's two most recent Beyer figures are higher than any other entrant's two most recent figures, that has not raced within 30 days. You can fudge this rule a little if the horse has a good workout (average of 12 seconds a furlong) within 10 days of today's race.

Rule 3: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that have not won, finished in the money or finished more than 4 lengths behind the winner in their most recent race.

Rule 4: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are making a change in distance, that is, from sprint (races under a mile) to route (races over a mile) or route to a sprint.

Rule 5: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are making a change in racing surface, dirt to turf or turf to dirt. Synthetic tracks can be treated as turf tracks for this rule.

Rule 6: Eliminate all double Beyer advantage horses that are dropping in class (level of competition). Drop-downs are risky at best for a number of reasons. The drop may indicate a lack of trainer and/or owner confidence, and drop-downs do not offer much in the way of value for your wagers because drop-downs are routinely pounded at the window and the risk seldom outweighs the return.

My research for this project demonstrated no particular advantage for types of races, i.e., stakes, allowance, claiming or maiden.

Hope it will get you a few winners. One thing I will add is the fact that the win/place percentage of this play continues to be a little over 80% and very close to 90% for an in the money finish so these plays are very good for key trifecta bets.

DDT


Hi DDT,
Thank You......TJ


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:44 pm 
Offline
Chef de Race: Classic

Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Posts: 4451
DDT: Very interesting. I would think that a player would want to practice a little before playing w/$.

I've read a number of handicapping books. None that I know of, other than Beyer and his believers, support solely relying on speed figures in their betting scheme.

I see you use the word "eliminate" in all but one rule. I guess I'll have to play with the system to see what value can be had with what is not eliminated.

It's nice to see this board getting some activity. Thanks for posting.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 8:28 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2021
Location: New Jersey
Shammy

When I say eliminate I mean to say that just having a double Beyer advantage is not enough if you are looking to up the win percentage from around 50% to 70%. In the explanation provided by the DRF as to the Beyer speed figures, Beyer is quoted as saying that a double figure advantage, a horse's two most recent figures are higher than any other entrant's to most recent figures in the race, and by that I mean the most recent figure is higher than any other entrant's most recent figure, and the second to most recent figure is also higher than any other entrant's second to most recent figure, is a good bet, he also said that a triple advantage was even better. I decided to check it out and after 1,000 races the double Beyer advantage had a win rate at just over 50% and a triple advantage or more had a win rate at just over 70%. The patterns I observed formed the bases for the rules, i.e., a lot of the losing double Beyer advantage plays had been off for more than 30 days with no recent works, so the first rule is to eliminate any double figure horse that has not started in more than 30 days without having a good work within 10 days. Changes in distance and surface also produced more losers than winners, so if the double advantage horse is changing distance or surface today the horse does not qualify and is eliminated and not played.

I certainly would advise playing on paper until you feel it is worth using. It takes very little time to glance over the PP's for any given race to see if any entrant has a double figure or triple or more figure advantage. If it is a triple advantage it is an automatic play. If it is a double advantage play then you must check days since last race, level of competition, finish in most recent race, distance and surface of last race against the distance and surface of today's race. If the horse passes all of the rule checks then it is a QUALIFIED double Beyer advantage play.

With simulcasting there are usually at least a couple of live plays a day. I like to use the qualified plays in doubles, pick 3's and pick 4's and because qualified plays have a 90% in the money average I use them in trifectas.

DDT


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 7:45 am 
Offline
Chef de Race: Classic

Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Posts: 4451
DDT: Thanks for the clarification. I really enjoy handicapping but I'm one of those bettors that picks up the form after entering the track. I look at the morning line and eliminate all horses w/odds greater than 15 - 1 and then scramble to pick a trifecta box on paper. After a quick check of the horses in the paddock, I have a look at the post parade and w/1 minute to post (if I'm satisfied w/my choices) place my bet.

Scramble is the key word in the equation.

Most of the handicapping books are somewhat complicated. I got very interested in Ken Helm's EXPLORING PEDIGREE some years back because I enjoy that side of it too. Sadly, there is too much to remember in his scheme, but it has been a great reference for precosity in particular sirelines.

I must tell you though, I enjoy evaluating the horses personally, so I wouldn't want to take paddock and post parade out of my thought process. Slots bore me. I really enjoy poker.


Last edited by Shammy Davis on Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:19 am 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2021
Location: New Jersey
Shammy

There is nothing like seeing the horses close up and I would never try to tell anyone that it is not necessary or, IMO, a very important part of the process. Being as I am getting a little long in the tooth I have some good stories about handicapping and horses but one that came to mind after reading you latest post is this. I grew up with a guy who exercised horses later in life and he could pick winners out at the paddock or in the post parade better than anyone I have ever known at the race track, and that list includes some pretty successful trainers.

The one thing I did not discuss is the fact that all of the rules can be manipulated after you become familiar with them. For instance, if a horse qualifies on all of the rules except a switch in surface and the past performances indicate that the horse has performed well over today's surface then you certainly might want to play the horse even if it is not strictly a qualifier.

DDT


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:40 am 
Offline
Chef de Race: Classic

Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Posts: 4451
I like betting harness horses more than I do the TB or QH. It seems like the same horses keeping showing up in the same races. My wife and I were visiting family in Maine and we took a couple of relatives to Scarborough Downs in Portland. They took my recommendations on the first three races and won. They thought I was a god. The majority of the horses in thoses races had raced against each other 3 or 4 times previously so it wasn't much to call those races. Unfortunately the rest of the card was not so good to us. Now they don't believe anything I say.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group