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 Post subject: Timeform Handicapping
PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:38 pm 
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Chef de Race: Classic

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http://www.timeform.com/show_article.asp?num=166


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:27 am 
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Love the system!


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 4:08 pm 
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I liked it too. I would have thought this thread would have gotten a few more hits, but alas there are more horsemen/women on this website than gamblers.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 5:26 pm 
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I personally think it's a great tool for horsemen and gamblers alike! I prefer it over the racing post rating. I also use it extensively when looking at racing prospects to bring over to Canada.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 1:29 pm 
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All the numerical models that are available in horse racing cannot definitively tell us how a horse will run in the next race. As it is written in the article, "Precisely what figures the Timeform handicapper puts on a race is a matter of judgement, but factors already referred to will usually lead to acceptable parameters for any assessment. The handicapper will use his experience and expertise to make this assessment as accurate as possible given the information available ..."

These models only have the meaning one chooses to give them. I doubt any of these numerical horse ratings fared well in the 2010 Breeder's Cup.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 3:42 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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I think Dangerous Midge and Goldikova did fine and Midday ran a good 2nd and Workforce was scratched out, but I would say some of the high Time Form numbered horses did pretty well in the 2010 Breeder's Cup.

DDT


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:11 am 
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Whirlaway wrote:
These models only have the meaning one chooses to give them.


A bit like Beyer speed figures or Ragozin numbers then.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 9:49 am 
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"I think Dangerous Midge and Goldikova did fine and Midday ran a good 2nd and Workforce was scratched out, but I would say some of the high Time Form numbered horses did pretty well in the 2010 Breeder's Cup. "

I haven't seen the TF numbers nor did I see them prior to the Breeder's Cup - but I have seen the Racing Post Ratings. In the RPR, Dangerous Midge was ranked third; Goldikova had the highest rating and Midday was ranked second. One horse with the highest RPR won the race - Goldikova. Both Goldikova and Midday were morning line favorites and the morning line for Dangerous Midge was 12-1. I believe Goldikova was pretty close to even money, if you had Midday to win you lost and if you didn't have the long shot Dangerous Midge I doubt using the TF rating would have resulted in a good ROI.

What about the Double Beyer Advantage? How well did that system do? Considering all of the exclusions, could you employ it at all?

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Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:14 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Location: New Jersey
Whirlaway

The double Beyer play is a spot play. I only use it when there is a play under the rules, might have two or three a day and then none for a few days, it is a spot play not a method of handicapping all races. I really do not know why I keep answering you, you obviously love to disagree. I will say it for the last time, if you can do better by all means show us your methods for handicapping a race, or better yet, give us a spot play with rules that has a good win percentage charted over 100 or more plays.

DDT


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 10:23 am 
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DDT,

I don't claim to be a handicapping expert.

How about a friendly handicapping competition, same as for the BC Classic handicapping the feature weekend race where the past performances are posted at no charge. I haven't handicapped much recently so it would make my game sharper come the Derby, and I would enjoy nothing more than to beat you like a red headed stepchild. (no offense to stepchildren w/red hair, seriously). What do you say?

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Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 11:05 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Whirlaway

Indeed, you name the race or races you want to play and the rules can be based on points or we can go with a single pick for each race. We can run this little competition for as long as you wish. Let me know what race(s) you want to play Saturday/Sunday and I will post my pick(s) prior to 12 noon Eastern on Saturday.


DDT


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:41 pm 
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DDT,

I'll start another thread called, Let the Games Begin. You will find additional information there.

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Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire


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