Pedigree Query

TrueNicks and Handicapping the KY Derby
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Author:  brogers [ Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:25 pm ]
Post subject:  TrueNicks and Handicapping the KY Derby

TrueNicks have posted the TrueNicks enhanced reports for all of the Derby 'possibles'.

For what it is worth the last two Kentucky Derby winners - Super Saver and Mine That Bird - were A+ rated before the Derby.

However, one of the biggest questions ask each year, if not the biggest, is "will the horse get the distance?" Very few horses are actually capable of getting the 10f of the KY Derby unless it is run like a War Emblem year where they literally jog for the first half a mile. Any horse can win that type of race. With the TrueNicks Enhanced Report (the second page of the report) the average winning distance of the horses bred on the same cross as the Derby prospect are stated which is a really useful piece of information to use in your handicapping.

Master of the Hounds actually has the highest average winning distance of colts bred on the cross - 10.76 furlongs - so from a distance perspective he should love every step of it. This statistic has to be tempered a little by the fact that the bulk of the horses bred on his rating race in Europe where races at 10f+ are more common than in North America, but from a handicapping viewpoint you may have to stick him in your exotics, despite his TrueNicks rating. The same applies to Animal Kingdom (10.40f), with the same caveat on European racing in his pedigree. The next three best on average winning distance of colts bred on the same cross are Brilliant Speed (9.45f), Midnight Interlude (9.13f) and Jaycito (8.50f) - all of whom race as if the 10f distance will really suit them.

While I wouldn't discount a horse whose similarly bred relations could only manage an AWD of around 7-8f, as it could be a case of an easy pace allowing them to get the distance by default, if you haven't already I would be putting a line through Watch Me Go (6.17f) and J P's Gusto (6.25f). Last year there was a horse that was trained to perfection, got a beautiful ride and ran his eyeballs out but came to the quarter pole and could find no more - Noble's Promise - the average winning distance of colts bred on the same cross as him - 5.91f. He ran a good three furlongs better than horses bred the same way as him and still came up short. Genetics will do that to you. :)

Author:  Bill from WA [ Tue May 03, 2011 4:55 pm ]
Post subject: 

The individual that fascinates me the most in this years Derby is Animal Kingdom.
Of all the potential runners, I like his pedigree the best for the distance, and he seems to be coming up to the race beautifully. His work over the Churchill Downs surface was encouraging, and he seems to be peaking at just the right time. I don't know about his off-track capabilities, but I do believe I'll take a chance with this boy on Saturday.


Author:  walaa [ Tue May 03, 2011 7:55 pm ]
Post subject:  KD

I think I will bet a 3 win bet on the field :D And a 3 exacta on the field, that should buy dog food for 1 week :)

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