Kty Derby angles

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Aug27
Allowance Winner
Posts: 366
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am

Kty Derby angles

Postby Aug27 » Tue Apr 26, 2011 5:41 am

Having followed thoroughbred horse racing since the '70s, I've used a number of different handicapping methods over the years. I recall reading a book on the Breeders' Cup (Crushing The Cup) several years ago that used angles to help narrow the field. In that vein, I've looked back through my Derby Racing Forms, and compiled a small database. This covers 439 starters over the past 25 years. Here’s an interesting stat (IMO) from that data:

Runners entering the Derby off a 1st or 2nd place finish at odds under 3-1 have won 14 times (of 125 starters) for 11.2% win pct.

On the other end of the spectrum, those who either finished worse than 4th OR went off at odds of 14-1 and higher were 0 for 107. This group includes longshot prep winners, or - as more commonly seen - longshot closers who finish underneath in the exotics in their final prep.

Those in neither category were 11 of 207, for a 5.3% win pct.

just thought this was interesting ...

Of course, recent history suggests that anything can happen (Giacomo, Mine That Bird), so I'd hesitate to rely on long term statistics as far as the Derby is concerned.

If you have any favorite angles you like to use for handicapping the Kty Derby, pls share them here!

yukidragon
Starters Handicap
Posts: 616
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:29 pm
Location: Oregon

Postby yukidragon » Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:50 pm

If Calvin Borel finds a ride pick him. :D
After past few years it's hard too say what horse will win.
Much easier to say what Jockey will.