It's so much easier to realize what happened after the fact:>) Sometimes tearing it apart afterwards will help in the future...here's some of my thoughts about the overall outcome. They were running pretty good at the end of this race, but the pace made it pretty tough for any deep closer's to get the money....the closers that got close showed more speed than usual. Additional opinions would be appreciated from other's.....
The Derby is now history and as with every other Derby not without great disappointment for many and unbelievable joy for the lucky few. Getting into red boarding the race and things said along the way by their connections or the manner in which they were trained into the race can give clues for future decisions in not only next season's Derby but this years Preakness and Belmont as well:
From last to first,
Comma to The Top...a very nice horse, coming out of an ordinary and inflated SA Derby figure race. With a recent switch to front bandages and his trainer previously stating he would not run in the Derby citing distance limitations.....he was proven right unfortunately. The lure of the Derby will find people outsmarting themselves and press when they would never think of it otherwise. With this decision to run came an ankle injury to his horse.....could have been the reason why he was recently running in front bandages?
Watch me Go...Low figures going in, no really outstanding races and beaten by a horse that wasn't even nominated to the Derby....once again the Lure of the Derby clouding the connections better judgement.
Twinspired....A nice horse who prefer's synthetic to any other surface....his big race in a grade I found all 3 contender's in a blanket finish....all three off the Derby board and all three preferred other than a dirt surface.
Midnight Interlude.....coming out of that same over inflated SA Derby as Comma to the Top...pushed a bit too hard when his stable mates failed to make the Derby....with that strong performance going into the Derby and working him like a machine at CD, left little inside for 1 1/4 miles.
Archarcharch....a real nice horse fairly well spent in his super efforts to get into the Derby....with bad luck coming out of the gate....trained decent going into the Derby, but got away from the rider one morning going faster then they wanted right before the race....that 3/8ths blowout was supposed to be a semi-two minute lick that went wrong. Let's hope he heals well and can prove he was no fluke later in the season.....the second and final immediate injury coming out of the Derby.
Decisive Moment ...I think we can look at him as a bull ring horse where he picked most of his graded money. Another one that got caught in Derby fever.
Derby Kitten...Proved without a doubt she is turf and synthetic only....when will they stop using synthetic track races as derby preps? Had the race been on dirt, the horse would have been beaten off and the connections could have remained in the barn knowing their horses wouldn't do well on the dirt. Too many horses enter the Derby hoping they will like the dirt....what's wrong with this picture?
Stay Thirsty...If you just looked at his beyers he was probably one of the top 5 throw outs.
Soldat...I guess the history of the Derby which tell's us a horse should run at least 3rd in his race going into the derby to be able to win it.....just look at Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, and Watch Me Go,
Twice the Appeal...not a bad race considering his low number's, but still a touch of Derby fever when you note he broke his maiden for $30,000 clmg.
Pants on Fire...Another who ran hard to get where he was....topping off his lifetime best race in his last, left room for a lot of down side.....bounced big time and bled badly too, which happens when they are pressed too hard.
Dialed In....The biggest knock I saw on Dialed In was his lack of consistent breezes his entire 3YO season.....yet he ran a decent race and closed well, but the slow pace could have compromised his chances. I think he will be a big threat in the Preakness.....he goes for a 5.5 million dollar bonus!
Brilliant Speed....can't really knock the race he ran in the Derby....he could be a Belmont threat? But again, why try a horse in a derby prep over synthetic when you are uncertain if he will handle the dirt?
Santiva,....he ran a decent race, his knock was a synthetic track prep, finishing off the board in his last and the fact he had only two races prior to the derby this year.....another that may have physical issues, but could rebound well off this race as he must have needed it?
Master of Hounds...A pretty good race overall.....especially coming into the Derby off just one race this year and trying the dirt for the first time.....another could be a Belmont threat??
Shackleford....held very well, especially when you consider his speed works going into the Derby....pretty impressive if you ignore the slow fractions:>) yet a good chance to fire in the Preakness?
Mucho Macho Man....when all was said and done yesterday I put my faith in him to get the job done. But he was away from the races for 6 weeks and not many have won the Derby off such a lengthy layoff. I thought he ran his big, gawky, lanky heart out and didn't find his best stride till late in the race.....He's still growing and he is far from seasoned and mature....just look at his body, looks like parts from 3 horses...and he still hasn't officially turned three....he was a late foal some time in June. I think he may be a real threat in the Belmont.....I hope they pass the Preakness because he was trained pretty strong to be fit enough to run as well as he did in the Derby....if he runs in the Preakness he's a throw out in the Belmont, but I think Ritvo will make the right move with him and wait for the Belmont.
Nehro...I have to say this horse reminds me of Curlin.....he should have bounced to the moon in his last with the leaps and bounds he made to get into this Derby....yet there he was....If he can run another big race after this one.....he'll start to get that same rep that Curlin had as an iron horse.....probably the same route to the Belmont next....he needs a mini break:>)
Animal Kingdom.....If you took the time to watch him train or gallop, this horse looked the part. He now shows he handles all surfaces as he ran well on turf, synthetic and dirt. He won this Derby with only 4 lifetime starts, two at two and two at three years old...amazing training feat!.....Graham Motion is a trainer and is going to be the new poster boy for American racing.....the win was well deserved and couldn't happen to a better man....funny how fate plays a roll in all this.....Toby's Corner is withdrawn, yet Graham wins with Animal Kingdom...and how about the flawless ride JV put on to get the job done after losing (through injury) the last two derby favorites. I wonder.....IF 'Mo is right in time for the Preakness...who will Johnny choose?? TJ
Derby Red Boarding Anyone
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
Derby Red Boarding Anyone
Last edited by TJ on Mon May 09, 2011 3:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
This is how I did it and ended up with the $1/Trifecta for a total of $210 exposure:
First off are the 'prejudices' I think we all have before even looking at things the least bit analytically. Here were/are mine:
1) I liked ANIMAL KINGDOM for no other reason than his pedigree. I LOVED Lesroidesanimaux and have wanted his offspring to do well - and they have. This 'love' is because of the close up Ahonoora/Indian Ridge influence in his pedigree (the "live" branch of the Byerly Turk still active today). This influence coupled with his sire line is very powerful to me and then you throw in his dam sire, Acatenango - the tremendous German sire influence for stamina with class and I just have to "love" ANIMAL KINGDOM. He certainly has the 'blueprint' to be a classic capable runner. Without ever having seen one of his race, I KNEW he should be there at the end if pedigree means anything and what's not to like about his Trainer, G. Motion, his jockey R. Alborado (oops! scratch that, now Johnny V.) I also have a great deal of respect for Barry Irwin/Team Valor and know them as people who can recognize a genuine racehorse early in their careers. Also, like me I suspect, they have a soft spot for the horse who's pedigree shows that Indian Ridge/Ahonoora influence up close. You don't typically see Team Valor vying for the sale 'hype' stallions' progeny. They are experts at spotting a prospect on the track in training for their first out or after making a few outs where they think the horse has more potential than its being given a chance to show, then fitting that horse's pedigree/style to a particular trainer/track/surface to get the most out of that horse as it develops/matures. I did have questions about this horse because he'd had so few outs and none on the dirt/at Churchhill but before I left the house for the track I took the time to read some of this forum's posters' comments and thoughts. I saw where Bill of Wa - someone I tremendously respect - was 'all over' this one and his reasons why - that sealed the deal for me. ANIMAL KINGDOM was in. 2) I watched NEHRO almost mow down ARCHARCHARCH in the Arkansas Derby and saw a horse with tremendous closing speed at the end of a classic distance race that was won by a horse I liked who was racing the race of his career. A horse who galloped out like he'd enjoy the Belmont, let alone the Derby. A horse definitely coming into his own and on the improve, liking the distance - NEHRO was in. 3) I had seen Decisive Moment's win in the Jean Lafitte because I had a special interest in how SU CASA G CASA would do in that race. It's a mile and 30 yd race, traditionally run very very fast on a very fast track and he just galloped away form his competition under a hand ride, actually being eased towards the finish and was still drawing off. "Much the best' would be the description or some such I thought. I also thought to myself "there's a new entry on the Derby Trail" and have frankly been surprised not to see/hear more about him since in the pre-Derby run up....then I saw in the PPs where the he'd been bested by two of my other 'well thought of' horses, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man in his next two outs. Given he'd had almost 2 full months off since his last defeat (to Animal Kingdom) and his jockey, Kerwin Clark was still with him - I like Kerwin Clark - I put him back in after initially scratching him from my considerations.
My Process (I think 'analysis' is not really an accurate description as I start out with so little of the 'intimate' familiarity with Beyers/etc. that I know I'm not working with a full data set, doing anything so rigorous as to be called 'analysis'):
#1) First I always try to eliminate a few, the more the better - in hindsight I eliminated far too few: Uncle Mo was out and I decided I didn't like Watch me Go either, was similarly not that impressed with Comma To The Top, although Miller putting P.Val on him gave me pause. Twinspired, Stay Thirsty, Master of the Hounds (b/c of his having raced mostly overseas with his only race in N.A. & at C.D. not arguing for him), Santiva and Brilliant Speed were all entries that would have to 'convince' me with their PPs to be left in.
#2) Have a 'strategy' or 'point of view' - I decided I was betting against Dialed In, the newly installed favorite as my basic strategy, so I eliminated him. IF you're going to play the exotics - I think you have to have an angle/a point of view. That decision that you're going to either go with a favorite and wheel in other 'possibles' or bet against the favorite if you think he's vulnerable is important. You have to have a position one way or the other or you end up seeing every entry from at least two different angles and it seems just about any horse might make it in then.
#3) I also wasn't sure just how much of a 'blistering' pace might develop with Uncle Mo out though I did think it would at least be an honest pace given Decisive Moment, Comma To The Top, Pants On Fire 's collective styles of running in the past - certainly not sluggish. I also decided to axe Decisive Moment from further consideration as not likely to be in the mix at the end (but relented on D.M. b/c of the strong positive impression he made on me back in January, so put him back in later).
#4) That left me with 17 out of the original 20 entries to consider. Next I categorized each horse as to their running style based strictly on PPs, i.e. FR- Front Runner, SP- Stalks the Pace, MP/C - MidPack Closer, C- Closer (a few I gave mixed categories, i.e. more than one category assignments). I did not try to consider at this point any influences such as surface, Beyer's, race times, jockeys, trainers, etc.
Here's how I categorized them:
FRs: 3, 5, 7, 6 (Decisive Moment, Pants On Fire, Comma To The Top and I threw in #3, Twice The Appeal because of where he was in the gate position. I figured at least in the early going he'd have to go out fast with all the speed to his outside and the two inside of him, likely dropping back.)
SPs: 1, 2, (I had ArchArchArch categorized as a FR but figured he'd not get out of the gate fast enough from the #1 slot and the track being so deep to overcome all the speed to his outside and expected he'd drop back along the rail to settle in right behind the leaders for the early going), I also figured 2, Brilliant Speed would do the same rather than to take on the FRs, then 4, 7 (note I have Pants On Fire as both a FR/SP type), 8 (but he's one of my eliminations), then: 10, 12, 13, 15?, 17, 19 (So I have ArchArchArch and Brilliant Speed settling in along the rail right behind the Front Runners in the early going with potentially Pants On Fire on the outside of them or running on up ahead. Behind that group, either running wide or more likely moving to the rail in some sort of shuffled arrangement I have Twinspired, Santiva, Mucho Macho Man, Midnight Interlude, Soldat and Nehro joining them in stalking/staying close to the pace (I confess that I accidently left #14, Shackleford out at this point, but realized my mistake and put him back in as fitting with this group and the next);
MP/C's: 2, 8, 9, 10, 14, 16, (That's Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Shackleford and ANIMAL KINGDOM) setting up just behind the horses Stalking the Pace (my sense of it was that #16 might be at the back of this group or else running wide - which I didn't want to see, and thought his trainer/jockey would avoid). I also included Shackleford in this group when I realized I'd left him out.
C's: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16 19 (ArchArchArch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Master of the Hounds, ANIMAL KINGDOM, Nehro are all capable of some degree of late kick if the rest of the race works out for them OK.....ESPECIALLY: 8, 16 and 19
#4) Time To Eliminate More: I looked at each group now and asked if there were any FR type that might still be there at the end, i.e. if the pace wasn't that intense and everything went their way, they ran relaxed (no way in the Derby I decided) and/or ran the race of a lifetime: Decisive Moment and Pants On Fire were the only two I could even conceive of meeting those specs and was doubtful of them both, frankly, but left them in. Next I went to the SP and MP/C's group: Who amongst these had the sort of jockey, style and past performances to suggest they'd be there in the stretch in terms of stamina, strategy and having something left in the tank. I bet #9, Derby Kitten (really this was my 'swami' pick - I woke up Derby morning saying to myself how amazing is it that the Ramsey's, who bred and owned Derby Kitten, among all those other foals they named "Kitten this" and "Kitten that" that were sired by their former racehorse: Kitten's Joy...should name this one "Derby Kitten"??!! I figured if anyone out there 'knows' when they've bred a Derby horse it might be the Ramsey's and I just had to go with this 'vibe') and ANIMAL KINGDOM. Finally I looked at the C's and felt good about already having ANIMAL KINGDOM in, and added in Nehro. So several hours before the Derby I went and bet a 5 horse $1 Trifecta wheel.
Later realizing I'd left out #13, Mucho Macho man, when I purchased my Trifecta wheel ticket - I added him to my $120 ticket hours later to run my price up to $210. I almost didn't do that as it doubled my exposure but am I ever glad I did! (And during the race I almost died when it looked like Shackleford was going to be in the mix! I'd dithered between Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Shackleford for at least 30 minutes before deciding against all but MMM.
In hindsight almost every one of these "picks" I left in was a horse I'd actually seen race in one of their preps and they had made a convincing argument to me in the form of a strong visual/mental impression of a) having the class to be a contender and b) being well rested/on the improve, plus I had to 'like' their Trainer and/or their jockey and/or their connections.
Its a flawed and imperfect/non-rigorous, non-analytical, almost anecdotal approach for getting from 17 possible to 6 bettable horses but this past Saturday it worked and it paid off.
Thanks again to all of you who posted opinions about this horse or that - one way or another your insights/thoughts helped me in my considerations and thanks especially to Bill of Wa for his solid endorsement of Animal Kingdom! I think I first encountered Bill of Wa when this forum was still associated with Del Mar, over 10 years ago for sure. He - and many others who still post here, those who have come later have always been very tolerant of my rank amateur ravings about the Byerly Turk sire line and its modern sources, value to the breed. This past Saturday's Derby was a shining example of why pedigree diversity is important to the thoroughbred and to this sport. That Animal Kingdom simply scampered past a manful Nehro is significant. I am hopeful that this will be emphasized in the two races to come that make up the Triple Crown. The Preakness with it's shorter distance, tighter turns and shorter stretch drive will be as vulnerable as Animal Kingdom is going to be. I honestly think Animal Kingdom - if he recovers well, stronger as an improving horse often does - can do this. Saturday was a big hurdle for him in terms of his lack of prior experience, handling the crowds, the commotion, the other 17 entrants over the mile and a quarter on a track he'd only just been introduced to and he passed those tests. The question of how he'd handle 'dirt' tracks has been answered. Barring a mud bath at Pimlico or Belmont I think this horse has a genuine shot.
First off are the 'prejudices' I think we all have before even looking at things the least bit analytically. Here were/are mine:
1) I liked ANIMAL KINGDOM for no other reason than his pedigree. I LOVED Lesroidesanimaux and have wanted his offspring to do well - and they have. This 'love' is because of the close up Ahonoora/Indian Ridge influence in his pedigree (the "live" branch of the Byerly Turk still active today). This influence coupled with his sire line is very powerful to me and then you throw in his dam sire, Acatenango - the tremendous German sire influence for stamina with class and I just have to "love" ANIMAL KINGDOM. He certainly has the 'blueprint' to be a classic capable runner. Without ever having seen one of his race, I KNEW he should be there at the end if pedigree means anything and what's not to like about his Trainer, G. Motion, his jockey R. Alborado (oops! scratch that, now Johnny V.) I also have a great deal of respect for Barry Irwin/Team Valor and know them as people who can recognize a genuine racehorse early in their careers. Also, like me I suspect, they have a soft spot for the horse who's pedigree shows that Indian Ridge/Ahonoora influence up close. You don't typically see Team Valor vying for the sale 'hype' stallions' progeny. They are experts at spotting a prospect on the track in training for their first out or after making a few outs where they think the horse has more potential than its being given a chance to show, then fitting that horse's pedigree/style to a particular trainer/track/surface to get the most out of that horse as it develops/matures. I did have questions about this horse because he'd had so few outs and none on the dirt/at Churchhill but before I left the house for the track I took the time to read some of this forum's posters' comments and thoughts. I saw where Bill of Wa - someone I tremendously respect - was 'all over' this one and his reasons why - that sealed the deal for me. ANIMAL KINGDOM was in. 2) I watched NEHRO almost mow down ARCHARCHARCH in the Arkansas Derby and saw a horse with tremendous closing speed at the end of a classic distance race that was won by a horse I liked who was racing the race of his career. A horse who galloped out like he'd enjoy the Belmont, let alone the Derby. A horse definitely coming into his own and on the improve, liking the distance - NEHRO was in. 3) I had seen Decisive Moment's win in the Jean Lafitte because I had a special interest in how SU CASA G CASA would do in that race. It's a mile and 30 yd race, traditionally run very very fast on a very fast track and he just galloped away form his competition under a hand ride, actually being eased towards the finish and was still drawing off. "Much the best' would be the description or some such I thought. I also thought to myself "there's a new entry on the Derby Trail" and have frankly been surprised not to see/hear more about him since in the pre-Derby run up....then I saw in the PPs where the he'd been bested by two of my other 'well thought of' horses, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man in his next two outs. Given he'd had almost 2 full months off since his last defeat (to Animal Kingdom) and his jockey, Kerwin Clark was still with him - I like Kerwin Clark - I put him back in after initially scratching him from my considerations.
My Process (I think 'analysis' is not really an accurate description as I start out with so little of the 'intimate' familiarity with Beyers/etc. that I know I'm not working with a full data set, doing anything so rigorous as to be called 'analysis'):
#1) First I always try to eliminate a few, the more the better - in hindsight I eliminated far too few: Uncle Mo was out and I decided I didn't like Watch me Go either, was similarly not that impressed with Comma To The Top, although Miller putting P.Val on him gave me pause. Twinspired, Stay Thirsty, Master of the Hounds (b/c of his having raced mostly overseas with his only race in N.A. & at C.D. not arguing for him), Santiva and Brilliant Speed were all entries that would have to 'convince' me with their PPs to be left in.
#2) Have a 'strategy' or 'point of view' - I decided I was betting against Dialed In, the newly installed favorite as my basic strategy, so I eliminated him. IF you're going to play the exotics - I think you have to have an angle/a point of view. That decision that you're going to either go with a favorite and wheel in other 'possibles' or bet against the favorite if you think he's vulnerable is important. You have to have a position one way or the other or you end up seeing every entry from at least two different angles and it seems just about any horse might make it in then.
#3) I also wasn't sure just how much of a 'blistering' pace might develop with Uncle Mo out though I did think it would at least be an honest pace given Decisive Moment, Comma To The Top, Pants On Fire 's collective styles of running in the past - certainly not sluggish. I also decided to axe Decisive Moment from further consideration as not likely to be in the mix at the end (but relented on D.M. b/c of the strong positive impression he made on me back in January, so put him back in later).
#4) That left me with 17 out of the original 20 entries to consider. Next I categorized each horse as to their running style based strictly on PPs, i.e. FR- Front Runner, SP- Stalks the Pace, MP/C - MidPack Closer, C- Closer (a few I gave mixed categories, i.e. more than one category assignments). I did not try to consider at this point any influences such as surface, Beyer's, race times, jockeys, trainers, etc.
Here's how I categorized them:
FRs: 3, 5, 7, 6 (Decisive Moment, Pants On Fire, Comma To The Top and I threw in #3, Twice The Appeal because of where he was in the gate position. I figured at least in the early going he'd have to go out fast with all the speed to his outside and the two inside of him, likely dropping back.)
SPs: 1, 2, (I had ArchArchArch categorized as a FR but figured he'd not get out of the gate fast enough from the #1 slot and the track being so deep to overcome all the speed to his outside and expected he'd drop back along the rail to settle in right behind the leaders for the early going), I also figured 2, Brilliant Speed would do the same rather than to take on the FRs, then 4, 7 (note I have Pants On Fire as both a FR/SP type), 8 (but he's one of my eliminations), then: 10, 12, 13, 15?, 17, 19 (So I have ArchArchArch and Brilliant Speed settling in along the rail right behind the Front Runners in the early going with potentially Pants On Fire on the outside of them or running on up ahead. Behind that group, either running wide or more likely moving to the rail in some sort of shuffled arrangement I have Twinspired, Santiva, Mucho Macho Man, Midnight Interlude, Soldat and Nehro joining them in stalking/staying close to the pace (I confess that I accidently left #14, Shackleford out at this point, but realized my mistake and put him back in as fitting with this group and the next);
MP/C's: 2, 8, 9, 10, 14, 16, (That's Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Shackleford and ANIMAL KINGDOM) setting up just behind the horses Stalking the Pace (my sense of it was that #16 might be at the back of this group or else running wide - which I didn't want to see, and thought his trainer/jockey would avoid). I also included Shackleford in this group when I realized I'd left him out.
C's: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16 19 (ArchArchArch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Master of the Hounds, ANIMAL KINGDOM, Nehro are all capable of some degree of late kick if the rest of the race works out for them OK.....ESPECIALLY: 8, 16 and 19
#4) Time To Eliminate More: I looked at each group now and asked if there were any FR type that might still be there at the end, i.e. if the pace wasn't that intense and everything went their way, they ran relaxed (no way in the Derby I decided) and/or ran the race of a lifetime: Decisive Moment and Pants On Fire were the only two I could even conceive of meeting those specs and was doubtful of them both, frankly, but left them in. Next I went to the SP and MP/C's group: Who amongst these had the sort of jockey, style and past performances to suggest they'd be there in the stretch in terms of stamina, strategy and having something left in the tank. I bet #9, Derby Kitten (really this was my 'swami' pick - I woke up Derby morning saying to myself how amazing is it that the Ramsey's, who bred and owned Derby Kitten, among all those other foals they named "Kitten this" and "Kitten that" that were sired by their former racehorse: Kitten's Joy...should name this one "Derby Kitten"??!! I figured if anyone out there 'knows' when they've bred a Derby horse it might be the Ramsey's and I just had to go with this 'vibe') and ANIMAL KINGDOM. Finally I looked at the C's and felt good about already having ANIMAL KINGDOM in, and added in Nehro. So several hours before the Derby I went and bet a 5 horse $1 Trifecta wheel.
Later realizing I'd left out #13, Mucho Macho man, when I purchased my Trifecta wheel ticket - I added him to my $120 ticket hours later to run my price up to $210. I almost didn't do that as it doubled my exposure but am I ever glad I did! (And during the race I almost died when it looked like Shackleford was going to be in the mix! I'd dithered between Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Shackleford for at least 30 minutes before deciding against all but MMM.
In hindsight almost every one of these "picks" I left in was a horse I'd actually seen race in one of their preps and they had made a convincing argument to me in the form of a strong visual/mental impression of a) having the class to be a contender and b) being well rested/on the improve, plus I had to 'like' their Trainer and/or their jockey and/or their connections.
Its a flawed and imperfect/non-rigorous, non-analytical, almost anecdotal approach for getting from 17 possible to 6 bettable horses but this past Saturday it worked and it paid off.
Thanks again to all of you who posted opinions about this horse or that - one way or another your insights/thoughts helped me in my considerations and thanks especially to Bill of Wa for his solid endorsement of Animal Kingdom! I think I first encountered Bill of Wa when this forum was still associated with Del Mar, over 10 years ago for sure. He - and many others who still post here, those who have come later have always been very tolerant of my rank amateur ravings about the Byerly Turk sire line and its modern sources, value to the breed. This past Saturday's Derby was a shining example of why pedigree diversity is important to the thoroughbred and to this sport. That Animal Kingdom simply scampered past a manful Nehro is significant. I am hopeful that this will be emphasized in the two races to come that make up the Triple Crown. The Preakness with it's shorter distance, tighter turns and shorter stretch drive will be as vulnerable as Animal Kingdom is going to be. I honestly think Animal Kingdom - if he recovers well, stronger as an improving horse often does - can do this. Saturday was a big hurdle for him in terms of his lack of prior experience, handling the crowds, the commotion, the other 17 entrants over the mile and a quarter on a track he'd only just been introduced to and he passed those tests. The question of how he'd handle 'dirt' tracks has been answered. Barring a mud bath at Pimlico or Belmont I think this horse has a genuine shot.
Hi Jellac,
You're being too modest....not everyone uses figures. There are many forms of handicapping and you're process made sense and is based on bloodlines and strong performances....both even more important in the Kentucky Derby then these figures, as none have figures at the distance being run in the Derby. Well done and in this economy a welcomed and deserving windfall, best wishes Jellac, TJ
You're being too modest....not everyone uses figures. There are many forms of handicapping and you're process made sense and is based on bloodlines and strong performances....both even more important in the Kentucky Derby then these figures, as none have figures at the distance being run in the Derby. Well done and in this economy a welcomed and deserving windfall, best wishes Jellac, TJ
Aug27 wrote:Does anyone know when the last time was that we had a Kty Derby winner who'd never run in a Grade I or Grade II race prior to his Derby win?
Not since 1984 at least (I have data going back that far) ...
congrats to Graham Motion; well deserved for an honest horseman.
Hi D,
Good question....let me first say, there were no graded races until near the early to mid-seventies (I'm guessing 1973 or 1974?) when a group headed by JD Wimpheimer set down the rules which would rank races according to the Gr I, II and III's that we know today. Yet those named races that were graded still ran throughout racing's history....so we can use that as a guide. Animal Kingdom could be a first....many of the older PP's are hard to know for sure....but I've gone back into the 20's and can't find any? CanoneroII (1971) came here and won off the plane from PR.....I can't find any history if he ran in Graded races in his country, most likely not as they were yet to be introduced in America. TJ