Looking at 24 years of history, I show 247 starters in these three groups:
Grp 1) 22 Derby winners
Grp 2) 109 Derby non-winners
Grp 3) 116 ran in something other than the Kty Derby in their last race.
Here’s how they fared:
Grp 1 : 22 Preakness starters, 8 W (36%) + 5 P (59%)
Grp 2: 109, 14 (13%) + 11 (23%)
Grp 3: 116, 2 (2%) + 8 (9%)
Return On Investment
Grp 1 = +43% on Win, +28% on W&P
Grp 2 = -36% on Win, -39% on W&P
Grp 3 = -51% on W, -46% on W&P
That's what's happened historically.
Like the prospectus for stocks usually reads: "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns".
Or, as Damon Runyan wrote:
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."
