Kentucky Derby Capping

[stancaris]

Here is an interesting statistic. In the last 14 years only two Derby winners broke their maiden in August or earlier: Street Sense, Mine That Bird. The other 12 broke their maiden in Sept or later. What is so interesting about that stat is that over 25 years ago the majority of Derby winners usually broke their maiden in June, July or August of their 2 year old season. The above is certainly a recent trend and I think it should be incorporated into the handicapping analysis of this years Derby.

[stancaris]

In the last 5 years a new trend has developed whereby the Derby winners each had only 2 starts at age three (usually one in March and one in April and then Derby time). The new trend of the last 5 years is quite different than the pattern taken in the preceding 10 years where almost all Derby winners had three starts at age 3.

Horses that look good now will not win the roses on the first Saturday in May if this trend continues this year. If it does continue, don't expect the Derby winner to make his first start until March. Its probable that this years Derby winner has not yet started and that is why the field in pool 1 went off at low odds of 3-2.

[stancaris]

To all: Union Rags won the Fountain of Youth on his own energy with the jockey never whipping him at any stage of the race. He ran the same way in the Fla Derby while coming in third and rallying in the last furlong. From my view it looked like they never asked him for his best in either of the above races both of which are preps for the big one on May 5th. Take Charge Indy was whipped thru the stretch for the victory and he needed graded earnings where Union Rags was already in the Derby with big graded earnings. As for the other horse, Reveron, Ido not think he desires more than 9 furlongs. As for El Padrino my view is he is not likely to win the roses.

[ct2346]

To all: Union Rags won the Fountain of Youth on his own energy with the jockey never whipping him at any stage of the race. He ran the same way in the Fla Derby while coming in third and rallying in the last furlong. From my view it looked like they never asked him for his best in either of the above races both of which are preps for the big one on May 5th. Take Charge Indy was whipped thru the stretch for the victory and he needed graded earnings where Union Rags was already in the Derby with big graded earnings. As for the other horse, Reveron, Ido not think he desires more than 9 furlongs. As for El Padrino my view is he is not likely to win the roses.

I agree with all of your observations with the exception of the El Padrino comment. I don't necessarily think he will win in KY, but his Fla Derby was better than the result looked. His jockey rode the wrong race and he still wasn't crushed. He's a better horse than the result showed on Saturday IMHO.

[stancaris]

The following are the horses I consider contenders for the roses up to this point. Certainly, more contenders will appear when the Blue Grass and Ark Derby are completed this coming weekend.

Gemologist is still undefeated and a certain contender for the roses. He ran the last 3 furlongs of the Wood in 38 flat and carries the N/P dossier where his sire is a Nonphalaris stallion and his dam is by a Phalaris stallion.

Alpha just missed in the Wood by a neck and ran the last 3 furlongs in 37 4/5. Alpha has dominant classicity 7-6-19-4-0, a profile that usually dictates stamina and has generated a pretty good amount of Derby winners.

I'll Have Another raced the last three furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby in 36 2/5 seconds and is a member of family 23b, one of the best famiies for generating Derby winners.

Creative Cause raced the last three furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby in 36.0 seconds and is a member of family 1, a strong female family.

Union Rags raced very well in the Fla Derby while rallying through the stretch with the final 3 furlongs in 36 1/5.

Take Charge Indy won the Fla Derby wire to wire and ran the last 3 furlongs in 36 3/5 seconds

Reveron raced well enough in the Fla Derby while going the last three furlongs in 36 3/5.

[Aug27]

here's another interesting statistic:
since 1984, only one horse has won with a jockey making his first start in a Kty Derby (Smarty Jones with Stewart Elliott). 1 win from 105 starters.

this year, jocks making their Derby debut:
Daddy Long Legs
Done Talking
I'll Have Another

{I'd be leaning toward I'll Have Another with a more experienced jock ...}

[stancaris]

Good Point: However, the odds may go very high on I'll have another with a debut jockey.

[Joltman]

here's another interesting statistic:
since 1984, only one horse has won with a jockey making his first start in a Kty Derby (Smarty Jones with Stewart Elliott). 1 win from 105 starters.

this year, jocks making their Derby debut:
Daddy Long Legs
Done Talking
I'll Have Another

{I'd be leaning toward I'll Have Another with a more experienced jock ...}

Well make that 2...

[stancaris]

To all: only two horses won the roses with a jockey making his first start in the Kentucky Derby.

Yes, thats true but what kind of horses and how many entered the Derby over the years with a jockey that was making his first start at CD in the run for the roses?

My guess is that 85-90% of those horses were not really contenders to begin with whereas I'll Have Another was a bonafide contender.