final 3/8 for the Derby
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
final 3/8 for the Derby
As a handicapping angle for the Derby the final 3/8 of a major Derby prep race in 37 4/5 or less looms a strong method. The major preps are the Santa Anita Derby (not on polytrack), the Blue Grass (not on polytrack), the Fla Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Arkansas Derby and the Illinois Derby. Polytracks were excluded from this study. 13 of the last 21 Derby winners qualified on this factor. The only winners that did not qualify were Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Mine that Bird, Big Brown, Street Sense, Charismatic , Silver Charm, and Grindstone. Furthermore, Super Saver and Big Brown missed qualifying by only a fifth of a second (38 flat for the last 3 furlongs). I have found that the qualifiers make up around 35% of the starters and comprise around 62% winners for an impact value of approx. 1.77. This means that qualifiers are winning the roses 77% more often than statistical expectation. One could also say that horses who do not qualify on this angle are winning the roses 42% less often than expected. Because the impact value for non qualifiers is 38% winners divided by 65% of the starters or .58. There is a big spread from 1.77 for the qualifiers and .58 for the non qualifiers. The ROI using this method for the last 21 years is approximately 33% profit. [/b]
final 3/8 for the Derby
Joltman: I'll Have Another was one of 8 horses who qualified on final 3/8 time: The others were: Bodemeister, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, El Padrino and Sabercat. My cut-off point is 37 4/5 for 9 furlong preps ---Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Fla Derby, and Ark Derby and Illinois Derby. Races run on polytracks are not used in the above study.